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← Back to GamesDec 2, 2023Week 14
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Liberty by 8.8

Home Win Probability

Liberty 70%

Market (Bovada)

Liberty -9.5

Edge: New Mexico State +9.5 (0.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 2, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
New Mexico StateNew Mexico State
71414035
LibertyLiberty
714141449

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842560-77-77-1414-1428-2135-2842-3549-35
LibertyNew Mexico State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NMSLIBNMSLIBNMSLIBNMSLIBNMSLIBLIBNMSLIBNMSLIBNMSLIBNMSLIBNMSLIBTD875ydTD980ydTD1175ydDOWNS1267ydPUNT31ydTD555ydPUNT621ydTD889ydTD458ydEND1-1ydTD571ydPUNT32ydTD564ydTD175ydMISS856ydTD680ydTD980ydTO845ydTD480ydDOWNS1342ydEND561yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing New Mexico State and Liberty
StatisticNew Mexico StateLiberty
Passing21-3520-25
Pass Yards322319
Rush Yards177393
Total Yards499712
Turnovers10
3rd Down6-115-9
Penalties7-755-60
Possession30:1329:47

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

New Mexico State
passing
Diego Pavia
11/16, 188 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Diego Pavia
5 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Trent Hudson
7 REC, 112 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Liberty
passing
Kaidon Salter
20/25, 319 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Kaidon Salter
12 CAR, 165 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
C.J. Daniels
7 REC, 157 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the NMSU 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.13

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 9 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.93

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 10 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.78

Monte Watkins run for 12 yds to the LIB 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Monte Watkins run for 3 yds to the LIB 36

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 6 yds to the LIB 30

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.44

Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the LIB 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.70

Diego Pavia run for 25 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the LIB 22

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 5 yds to the LIB 27

3rd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.84

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 12 yds to the LIB 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the LIB 45

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.61

Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.83

Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 14 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.38

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 15 yds to the NMSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.69

Quinton Cooley run for 20 yds to the NMSU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the NMSU 30

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the NMSU 41

2nd & 5Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.56

Star Thomas run for 14 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.54

Star Thomas run for 11 yds to the LIB 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.01

Star Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 36

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.34

Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 19 yds to the LIB 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the LIB 13

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the LIB 10

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.72

Diego Pavia pass complete to Ron Tiavaasue for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.86

Billy Lucas run for 10 yds to the LIB 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the LIB 39

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the LIB 42

3rd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.09

Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.97

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 18 yds to the NMSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.53

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Austin Henderson for 8 yds to the NMSU 24

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Billy Lucas run for no gain to the NMSU 24

3rd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.42

Billy Lucas run for 8 yds to the NMSU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Kaidon Salter run for 6 yds to the NMSU 10

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 8

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -4.02

Vaughn Blue run for 1 yd to the NMSU 7

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 1 yd to the NMSU 8

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 47 yds, downed at the LIB 45

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 4 yds to the LIB 49

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.96

Kaidon Salter run for 6 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +0.94

Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 32 yds to the NMSU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd to the NMSU 12

2nd & 9Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.78

Quinton Cooley run for 12 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Makhilyn Young run for 13 yds to the NMSU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the LIB 45

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.09

Makhilyn Young run for 3 yds to the LIB 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the LIB 40

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Monte Watkins run for 1 yd to the LIB 39

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 7Penalty-5 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, Delay Of Game (BJ Sculark) to the LIB 44

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brylan Green at the LIB 11

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.55

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 12 yds to the LIB 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.78

Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 10 yds to the LIB 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Kaidon Salter run for 10 yds to the LIB 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 5 yds to the LIB 48

2nd & 5Penalty+10 yds

Kaidon Salter pass short to the right complete for 9 yards to Billy Lucas caught at the NMS49 and advanced to the NMS43 (AUPIU, Sone), out of bounds. PENALTY NMS Holding on SELDON, Andre enforced 10 yards from the LIB48 to the NMS42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.63

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Austin Henderson for 19 yds to the NMSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 7 yds to the NMSU 16

2nd & 3Penalty-10 yds

Kaidon Salter pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CJ Daniels thrown to the NMS0. PENALTY LIB Holding on WHITE, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the NMS16 to the NMS26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

3rd & 13Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +4.12

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 26 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.99

Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 2Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.67

Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 17 yds to the LIB 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.32

Diego Pavia pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 16 yds to the LIB 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 17 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

[NHSG] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at LIB24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 64 yards to LIB35 and advanced to NMS7. Liberty Penalty, Illegal Block (Treon Sibley) to the NMSU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Aaron Bedgood run for 7 yds to the NMSU 10

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.58

Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the NMSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the NMSU 39

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.24

Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 37

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 43 yds , Brylan Green returns for no gain to the LIB 36

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.60

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 18 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +0.90

Aaron Bedgood run for 24 yds to the NMSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.50

Billy Lucas run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 23

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the NMSU 20

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +3.32

Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 20 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.08

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 75 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.34

Kaidon Salter run for 27 yds to the NMSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the NMSU 41

2nd & 8Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.12

Kaidon Salter run for 14 yds to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.19

Quinton Cooley run for 13 yds to the NMSU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the NMSU 14

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Kaidon Salter run for no gain to the NMSU 14

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+32 yds

Nick Brown 32 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Blaze Berlowitz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Liberty Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Amarian Williams) to the LIB 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.34

Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Trent Hudson for 16 yds to the LIB 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Monte Watkins run for 4 yds to the LIB 14

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Kordell David for 3 yds to the LIB 11

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.73

Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Trent Hudson for 11 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 12 yds to the LIB 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 6 yds to the LIB 38

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.67

Billy Lucas run for 5 yds to the LIB 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+43 ydsPPA +1.92

Billy Lucas run for 43 yds to the NMSU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Aaron Bedgood run for 6 yds to the NMSU 8

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Aaron Bedgood run for 2 yds to the NMSU 6

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Billy Lucas run for 1 yd to the NMSU 5

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.64

Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the NMSU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Billy Lucas run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.59

Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

BERLOWITZ, Blaze pass to the right complete for 10 yards to BRADY, Jonathan caught at the LIB40 and advanced to the LIB40, out of bounds. PENALTY NMS Pass Interference on FAUPEL, Donovan enforced 15 yards to the NMS35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Trent Hudson for 3 yds to the NMSU 38

2nd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Blaze Berlowitz pass incomplete

3rd & 22Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +4.31

Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Bryce Childress for 30 yds to the LIB 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Blaze Berlowitz run for 7 yds to the LIB 25

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the LIB 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Blaze Berlowitz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.95

Blaze Berlowitz pass intercepted, touchback. Brandon Bishop return for no gain

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quinton Cooley for 12 yds to the LIB 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+33 ydsPPA +2.55

Aaron Bedgood run for 33 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+35 ydsPPA +3.66

Kaidon Salter run for 35 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Blaze Berlowitz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Blaze Berlowitz run for 9 yds to the NMSU 34

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.86

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Blaze Berlowitz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -0.95

Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Star Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the NMSU 29

3rd & 16Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.90

Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Trent Hudson for 15 yds to the NMSU 44

4th & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.70

Jamoni Jones run for 9 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.56

Blaze Berlowitz run for 10 yds to the LIB 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Louie Canepa) to the LIB 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.53

Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 14 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LIB 38

1st & 20Penalty-5 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on VAIPULU, AJ enforced (-5 Yards) to the LIB 43

1st & 25Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.05

Blaze Berlowitz run for 10 yds to the LIB 33

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Blaze Berlowitz pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Blaze Berlowitz pass incomplete

4th & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Blaze Berlowitz pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Billy Lucas run for 5 yds to the LIB 38

2nd & 5Rush+52 ydsPPA +2.81

Kaidon Salter run for 52 yds to the NMSU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the NMSU 7

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 5

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

[NHSG] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at NMS6 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

New Mexico State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
62%
29 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
33%
6 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Liberty

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
100%
1 play
68%
38 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
80%
5 plays
63%
8 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays