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← Back to GamesNov 12, 2023Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 21

Home Win Probability

Hawai'i 10%

Market (Bovada)

Hawai'i +20.5

Edge: Air Force -20.5 (0.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 12, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
037313
Hawai'iHawai'i
767727

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-313-320-1027-13
Hawai'iAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20HAWAFHAWAFHAWAFHAWAFHAWAFAFHAWAFHAWAFHAWAFHAWTD1275ydPUNT516ydMISS941ydFG2061ydTD975ydTD575ydTD1175ydMISS665ydPUNT738ydTD713ydFG1268ydPUNT3-2ydTO10ydPUNT37ydTO237ydPUNT33ydTO10ydEND20yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Hawai'i
StatisticAir ForceHawai'i
Passing3-922-29
Pass Yards114176
Rush Yards201121
Total Yards315297
Turnovers40
3rd Down7-148-13
Penalties3-255-56
Possession29:2630:34

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Jensen Jones
3/7, 114 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Dylan Carson
13 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Cade Harris
1 REC, 65 YDS
defense
Hawai'i
passing
Brayden Schager
22/29, 176 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Brayden Schager
8 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Pofele Ashlock
12 REC, 67 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Landon Sims run for 2 yds to the HAW 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Brayden Schager pass complete to Alex Perry for 7 yds to the HAW 34

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.25

Dalen Morris run for 5 yds to the HAW 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.67

Brayden Schager pass complete to Alex Perry for 21 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Landon Sims run for 2 yds to the AFA 38

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Solo Vaipulu run for 4 yds to the AFA 34

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.95

Brayden Schager run for 4 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Landon Sims run for 1 yd to the AFA 29

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 8 yds to the AFA 21

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.18

Dalen Morris run for 2 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.72

Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 14 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.34

Cade Harris run for 10 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the AFA 40

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the AFA 41

3rd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.52

Zac Larrier run for no gain to the AFA 41

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Koali Nishigaya at the HAW 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 3 yds to the HAW 31

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.63

David Cordero run for 11 yds to the HAW 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 1 yd to the HAW 43

2nd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.80

Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 9 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.59

Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 10 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 2 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brayden Schager run for 5 yds to the AFA 31

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

4th & 3Field Goal Missed+48 yds

Matthew Shipley 48 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.68

Owen Burk run for 7 yds to the AFA 38

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.96

Owen Burk run for 1 yd to the AFA 39

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the AFA 40

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.08

Jensen Jones run for 3 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 45

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the AFA 47

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 3Penalty+5 yds

Hawai'i Penalty, Offsides (Jalen Smith) to the HAW 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Aiden Calvert run for 5 yds to the HAW 40

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the HAW 36

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.62

Jensen Jones run for 4 yds to the HAW 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Jalen Johnson run for 4 yds to the HAW 28

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the HAW 24

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.38

Jensen Jones run for 5 yds to the HAW 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the HAW 16

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the HAW 14

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.61

John Lee Eldridge III run for 6 yds to the HAW 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the HAW 6

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Jensen Jones run for 2 yds to the HAW 4

3rd & 4Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.60

Cade Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the HAW 8

4th & 8Field Goal Good+25 yds

Matthew Dapore 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 5 yds to the HAW 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush+40 ydsPPA +3.92

Brayden Schager run for 40 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.37

Brayden Schager sacked by Jayden Goodwin for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 35

2nd & 15Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Brayden Schager run for 6 yds to the AFA 29

3rd & 9Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.01

Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 28 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Penalty0 yds

Air Force Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Trey Williams) to the AFA 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Dalen Morris run for no gain to the AFA 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Brayden Schager run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Shipley PAT MISSED)

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jensen Jones run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Jensen Jones run for 2 yds to the AFA 31

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.66

John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

JONES, Jensen pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for WILSON, Wyatt thrown to the HAW40. PENALTY HAW Pass Interference on STONE, Cameron enforced 15 yards to the HAW47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Hawai'i Penalty, Defensive Holding (Fo'i Sila) to the HAW 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+35 ydsPPA +2.97

Dylan Carson run for 35 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.41

David Cordero run for 19 yds to the HAW 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 11 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Solo Vaipulu run for 4 yds to the AFA 41

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

David Cordero run for 5 yds to the AFA 36

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.62

Dalen Morris run for 4 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 4 yds to the AFA 28

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.98

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 9 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.97

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 19 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Owen Burk run for 1 yd to the AFA 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+65 ydsPPA +4.24

Jensen Jones pass complete to Cade Harris for 65 yds to the HAW 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Penalty-10 yds

ELDRIDGE III, John Lee rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the HAW3 (MANUMA, Peter), out of bounds. PENALTY AFA Holding on RILLOS, Caleb enforced 10 yards from the HAW9 to the HAW19. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 19Fumble Recovery (Own)+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Jensen Jones run for 5 yds to the HAW 14 Jensen Jones fumbled, recovered by AFA John Lee Eldridge III QB Keeper JONES, Jensen rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards, JONES, Jensen fumbled at HAW14 forced by EDWARDS, Virdel, recovered by AFA ELDRIDGE III, John Lee at the HAW14, returned 0 yards to the HAW14, End of Play.

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Jensen Jones pass incomplete

3rd & 14Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the HAW 10

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+27 yds

Matthew Dapore 27 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 4 yds to the HAW 24

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

David Cordero run for 1 yd to the HAW 25

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.57

Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 9 yds to the HAW 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Air Force Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jamari Bellamy) to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

David Cordero run for 3 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.10

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for no gain to the AFA 44

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

David Cordero run for 2 yds to the AFA 42

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Matthew Shipley punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 19

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.75

Dylan Carson run for 11 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Dylan Carson run for 8 yds to the AFA 38

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.04

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 39

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.07

Jensen Jones run for 2 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jensen Jones run for 2 yds to the AFA 43

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 47

3rd & 4Fumble Return Touchdown+32 ydsPPA -8.50

Meki Pei 32 Yd Fumble Return (Matthew Shipley Kick)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.01

Jensen Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 26

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Jensen Jones run for 5 yds to the AFA 31

3rd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.18

Jensen Jones pass complete to Quin Smith for 10 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jensen Jones run for 2 yds to the AFA 43

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Jensen Jones pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.71

Jensen Jones pass complete to Brandon Engel for 39 yds to the HAW 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Aiden Calvert run for 3 yds to the HAW 15

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Dylan Carson run for 9 yds to the HAW 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the HAW 5

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the HAW 4

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Jensen Jones pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+21 yds

Matthew Dapore 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 2 yds to the HAW 27

2nd & 8Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.68

Landon Sims run for a loss of 4 yards to the HAW 23

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Brayden Schager pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Matthew Shipley punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the HAW 40

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.81

Jensen Jones pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

David Cordero run for 2 yds to the HAW 34

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.68

David Cordero run for no gain to the HAW 34

3rd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Brayden Schager run for 5 yds to the HAW 39

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Matthew Shipley punt for 17 yds

1st & 10Rush+37 ydsPPA +1.77

Jensen Jones run for 37 yds to the HAW 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+20 yds

Hawai'i Penalty, Personal Foul (Andrew Choi) to the HAW 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 1 yd to the HAW 13

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.17

Dalen Morris run for 1 yd to the HAW 14

3rd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.09

Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 1 yd to the HAW 15

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Matthew Shipley punt for 27 yds, downed at the HAW 42

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.71

Ben Brittain pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Brayden Schager run for 1 yd to the HAW 3

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.13

[NH] Kneel down by SCHAGER, Brayden at HAW2 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
30%
20 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
17%
6 plays
29%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

Hawai'i

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
23%
22 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
33%
3 plays
50%
14 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
75%
4 plays
100%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th