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← Back to GamesNov 5, 2023Week 10
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Fresno State by 8.1

Home Win Probability

Fresno State 63%

Market (Bovada)

Fresno State -2.5

Edge: Fresno State -2.5 (5.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 5, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Boise StateBoise State
3771330
Fresno StateFresno State
101071037

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284210-010-313-327-1027-1727-2030-2030-2737-30
Fresno StateBoise State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20FSBSFSBSFSBSFSBSFSBSFSBSBSFSBSFSBSFSBSFSBSFSBSFSTD778ydPUNT39ydFG935ydFG1143ydPUNT420ydTO1166ydFG1068ydTO345ydPUNT530ydPUNT35ydTO211ydTD1264ydPUNT37ydTD1468ydTD675ydPUNT39ydFG1463ydFG655ydPUNT30ydPUNT413ydTD880ydTD775ydFG641ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Boise State and Fresno State
StatisticBoise StateFresno State
Passing24-4625-40
Pass Yards311303
Rush Yards177138
Total Yards488441
Turnovers21
3rd Down9-188-15
Penalties4-351-15
Possession29:3130:29

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Boise State
passing
Maddux Madsen
22/42, 258 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
George Holani
19 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Eric McAlister
8 REC, 85 YDS
defense
Fresno State
passing
Mikey Keene
24/38, 290 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Malik Sherrod
21 CAR, 132 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Mac Dalena
6 REC, 85 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.70

Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 21

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 3 yds to the FRES 24

3rd & 8Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.98

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 23 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

KEENE, Mikey pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROOKS, Erik thrown to the BSU20. PENALTY BSU Offsides on SIMPSON, Andrew enforced 5 yards from the FST47 to the BSU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA -0.24

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 11 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.10

Malik Sherrod run for 12 yds to the BOIS 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.70

Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 25 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

George Holani run for 5 yds to the BOIS 23

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Maddux Madsen run for 4 yds to the BOIS 27

4th & 1Punt0 yds

James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.70

Malik Sherrod run for 8 yds to the FRES 43

3rd & 2Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.26

Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 15 yds to the BOIS 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.42

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 13 yds to the BOIS 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.92

Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 30

3rd & 11Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.00

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for no gain to the BOIS 30

4th & 11Field Goal Good+48 yds

Dylan Lynch 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

George Holani run for 6 yds to the BOIS 35

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.75

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 6 yds to the BOIS 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.32

George Holani run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 1Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.47

Kaden Dudley run for 18 yds to the FRES 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 4 yds to the FRES 28

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Taylen Green run for 6 yds to the FRES 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

George Holani run for 2 yds to the FRES 20

3rd & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.29

Maddux Madsen sacked by Devo Bridges for a loss of 8 yards to the FRES 28

4th & 16Field Goal Good+45 yds

Jonah Dalmas 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 12 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Malik Sherrod run for 8 yds to the FRES 45

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.36

Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 45

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Carson King punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.91

George Holani run for 17 yds to the BOIS 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.91

George Holani run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 27

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Kaden Dudley for 7 yds to the BOIS 34

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.71

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 6 yds to the BOIS 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

GREEN, Taylen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MCALISTER, Eric thrown to the FST15. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on NORRIS JR., Morice enforced 15 yards to the FST45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

George Holani run for 7 yds to the FRES 38

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.76

Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the FRES 37

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.75

George Holani run for 2 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.31

George Holani run for 12 yds to the FRES 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

George Holani run for 1 yd to the FRES 22

2nd & 9Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.65

Taylen Green sacked by Isaiah Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 23

3rd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.37

Maddux Madsen pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.97

Elijah Gilliam run for 8 yds to the FRES 36

2nd & 2Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.88

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 28 yds to the BOIS 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.03

Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 14 yds to the BOIS 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.96

Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 18 yds to the BOIS 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+22 yds

Dylan Lynch 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.73

Taylen Green pass complete to George Holani for 32 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.64

Jambres Dubar run for 13 yds to the FRES 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.10

Taylen Green pass intercepted, touchback.

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.34

Malik Sherrod run for 17 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.13

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 12 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -3.03

Mikey Keene sacked by Ahmed Hassanein for a loss of 12 yards to the FRES 37

2nd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Logan Fife pass incomplete

3rd & 22Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.58

Logan Fife pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 13 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Carson King punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.53

George Holani run for a loss of 3 yards to the BOIS 10

2nd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 6 yds to the BOIS 16

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Maddux Madsen run for 2 yds to the BOIS 18

4th & 5Punt0 yds

James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 11 yds to the BOIS 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.52

Mikey Keene pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

George Holani run for 5 yds to the BOIS 41

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Maddux Madsen run for 4 yds to the BOIS 45

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

Boise State Penalty, False Start (Ty Benefield) to the BOIS 40

3rd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.69

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 13 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.73

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 13 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Maddux Madsen pass complete to George Holani for 8 yds to the FRES 26

2nd & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA -0.25

Maddux Madsen pass complete to George Holani for 5 yds to the FRES 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Maddux Madsen run for 4 yds to the FRES 17

2nd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.45

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Billy Bowens for 15 yds to the FRES 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Billy Bowens for 2 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return Touchdown+95 yds

Malik Sherrod 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Dylan Lynch Kick)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds , return for no gain to the BOIS 15

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.20

George Holani run for 7 yds to the BOIS 22

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 57 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 34

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the FRES 38

3rd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.66

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 4 yds to the FRES 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 45

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.76

Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 13 yds to the BOIS 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Mikey Keene pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 5 yds to the BOIS 37

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the BOIS 35

3rd & 3Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.14

Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 19 yds to the BOIS 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the BOIS 12

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the BOIS 12

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.25

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 8 yds to the BOIS 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the BOIS 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Maddux Madsen pass complete to George Holani for 2 yds to the BOIS 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +3.44

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 35 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +1.21

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Austin Bolt for 33 yds to the FRES 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

George Holani run for 2 yds to the FRES 3

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

George Holani run for 2 yds to the FRES 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

George Holani run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 26

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 7 yds to the FRES 33

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 33

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Carson King punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Chase Penry at the BOIS 16

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

George Holani run for 4 yds to the BOIS 20

3rd & 6Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.51

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Prince Strachan for 22 yds to the BOIS 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.55

George Holani run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 40

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

4th & 12Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.97

James Ferguson-Reynolds pass complete to Jayden Virgin for 21 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Chase Penry run for no gain to the FRES 39

3rd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.24

Maddux Madsen run for 13 yds to the FRES 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 5 yds to the FRES 21

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+38 yds

Jonah Dalmas 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 9 yds to the FRES 48

2nd & 1Penalty+15 yds

Boise State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaylen Clark) to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.50

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 23 yds to the BOIS 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the BOIS 12

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the BOIS 9

3rd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 3 yds to the BOIS 6

4th & 2Field Goal Good+24 yds

Dylan Lynch 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 55 yds

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.88

Malik Sherrod run for 10 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.31

Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 49

2nd & 11Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 4 yds to the BOIS 45

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Carson King punt for 25 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

George Holani run for 3 yds to the BOIS 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.19

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Eric McAlister for 10 yds to the BOIS 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.67

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chase Penry for 18 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.67

Maddux Madsen run for 11 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.12

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chase Penry for 11 yds to the FRES 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.74

Maddux Madsen run for 27 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the FRES 29

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.04

Malik Sherrod run for 7 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 39

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.54

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 10 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 48

2nd & 11Rushing Touchdown+52 ydsPPA +5.29

Malik Sherrod run for 52 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Maddux Madsen pass complete to George Holani for 9 yds to the BOIS 34

2nd & 1Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.47

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Billy Bowens for 23 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Maddux Madsen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Maddux Madsen run for 4 yds to the FRES 39

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Maddux Madsen pass complete to George Holani for 5 yds to the FRES 34

4th & 1Field Goal Good+52 yds

Jonah Dalmas 52 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.88

[NHSG] Kneel down by KEENE, Mikey at BSU42 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Boise State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
48%
33 plays
2nd
33%
6 plays
33%
6 plays
36%
11 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
71%
7 plays
33%
6 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

Fresno State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
3 plays
40%
30 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
40%
10 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
80%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th