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← Back to GamesOct 1, 2023Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Fresno State by 34.3

Home Win Probability

Fresno State 97%

Market (Bovada)

Fresno State -24.5

Edge: Fresno State -24.5 (9.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 1, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NevadaNevada
00099
Fresno StateFresno State
776727

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-020-027-027-227-9
Fresno StateNevada

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NEVFSNEVFSNEVFSNEVFSNEVFSFSNEVFSNEVFSNEVFSNEVFSNEVFSNEVFSNEVFSPUNT1841ydTD688ydPUNT34ydDOWNS824ydPUNT4-10ydTO34ydPUNT3-5ydTD597ydPUNT839ydEND313ydTO411ydPUNT3-5ydFG730ydPUNT3-1ydFG960ydPUNT6-1ydTD768ydTO314ydMISS41ydTO430ydSAF1-2ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT426ydTD890ydEND10yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Nevada and Fresno State
StatisticNevadaFresno State
Passing19-3526-34
Pass Yards167269
Rush Yards53141
Total Yards220410
Turnovers22
3rd Down4-156-12
Penalties10-983-35
Possession30:3329:27

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Nevada
passing
AJ Bianco
9/14, 97 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Brendon Lewis
16 CAR, 25 YDS
receiving
Spencer Curtis
8 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Fresno State
passing
Mikey Keene
26/34, 269 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Malik Sherrod
12 CAR, 123 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jaelen Gill
8 REC, 126 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Dylan Lynch kickoff for 52 yds , return for no gain to the NEV 13

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 15

2nd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.18

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 14 yds to the NEV 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 31

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the NEV 33

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.93

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 7 yds to the NEV 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.04

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.09

Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds to the FRES 41

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.17

Sean Dollars run for no gain to the FRES 41

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.91

Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Brendon Lewis run for 7 yds to the FRES 32

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the FRES 30

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.26

Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the FRES 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

LEWIS, Brendon pass to the left incomplete intended for BELL, Jamaal thrown to the FST13. PENALTY NEV Holding on CAPRA, Joey enforced 10 yards from the FST28 to the FST38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.17

Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 39

2nd & 21Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

3rd & 21Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.05

Brendon Lewis sacked by Chrishawn Gordon for a loss of 7 yards to the FRES 46

4th & 28Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the FRES 14

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 17

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.08

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 9 yds to the FRES 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.84

Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 25

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.81

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 10 yds to the FRES 35

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+65 ydsPPA +6.03

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 65 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the NEV 30

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.86

Sean Dollars run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 42

2nd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.81

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 13 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-17 ydsPPA -3.62

Mikey Keene sacked by Jaden Dedman for a loss of 17 yards to the FRES 38

2nd & 27Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.00

Mikey Keene run for 4 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NEV 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.94

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for no gain to the NEV 43

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 6 yds to the NEV 37

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.93

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.85

Brendon Lewis sacked by Morice Norris Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the NEV 31

2nd & 16Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.37

Brendon Lewis run for 12 yds to the NEV 43 Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (John Jackson III) to the NEV 20

2nd & 27Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the NEV 25

3rd & 22Penalty-5 yds

Nevada Penalty, Delay Of Game (John Jackson III) to the NEV 20

3rd & 27Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.02

Sean Dollars run for 7 yds to the NEV 27

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 31

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 31

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the FRES 35

3rd & 6Interception0 ydsPPA -0.41

Mikey Keene pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the FRES 38

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

AJ Bianco pass incomplete

3rd & 7Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.30

AJ Bianco sacked by Kemari Munier-Bailey for a loss of 8 yards to the FRES 46

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 43 yds, downed at the FRES 3

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.38

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 13 yds to the FRES 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.46

Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for no gain to the FRES 16

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.14

Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 2 yds to the FRES 18

3rd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.32

Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 10 yds to the FRES 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+72 ydsPPA +5.86

Malik Sherrod run for 72 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Dylan Lynch kickoff for 55 yds , return for no gain

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

AJ Bianco run for 7 yds to the NEV 22

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.24

AJ Bianco pass complete to John Jackson III for 5 yds to the NEV 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.88

Sean Dollars run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 26

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.16

AJ Bianco pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 6 yds to the NEV 32

3rd & 5Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.97

AJ Bianco pass complete to Isaah Crocker for 20 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.60

AJ Bianco pass complete to Sean Dollars for 2 yds to the FRES 46

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

AJ Bianco pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

AJ Bianco pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 13

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the FRES 14

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 4 yds to the FRES 18

3rd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.06

Malik Sherrod run for 8 yds to the FRES 26 for a 1ST down

0th & 5End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 3 yds to the FRES 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 6 yds to the FRES 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.85

Mikey Keene pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 28

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

3rd & 9Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.33

Brendon Lewis sacked by Sione Noa for a loss of 6 yards to the NEV 22

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.46

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 18 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.67

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 8 yds to the NEV 34

2nd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 3 yds to the NEV 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the NEV 30

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+48 yds

Dylan Lynch 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 4 yds to the NEV 39

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Nevada Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Isaah Crocker) to the NEV 34

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 49 yds , returns for no gain to the FRES 18

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the FRES 22

2nd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.32

Mikey Keene pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 13 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.32

Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 14 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Mikey Keene pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 5 yds to the NEV 46

2nd & 5Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.16

Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 23 yds to the NEV 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 1 yd to the NEV 22

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Mikey Keene pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+40 yds

Dylan Lynch 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for 4 yds to the NEV 29

2nd & 6Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.05

Brendon Lewis sacked by Morice Norris Jr. and Camryn Bracha for a loss of 7 yards to the NEV 22

3rd & 13Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.39

Brendon Lewis run for 17 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 4 yds to the NEV 43

2nd & 6Penalty-10 yds

LEWIS, Brendon pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CURTIS, Spencer thrown to the FST30. PENALTY NEV Holding on WEYNAND, Adam enforced 10 yards from the NEV43 to the NEV33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 16Penalty-10 yds

BADOLATO-BIRDSELL, Jacques rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the NEV38 (NORRIS JR., Morice). PENALTY NEV Holding enforced 10 yards from the NEV33 to the NEV23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 26Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.08

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jacques Badolato-Birdsell for 8 yds to the NEV 31

3rd & 18Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.17

Brendon Lewis sacked by Camryn Bracha for a loss of 7 yards to the NEV 24

4th & 25Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 6 yds to the FRES 38

2nd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.21

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 11 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.85

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 8 yds to the NEV 42

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.82

Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +0.61

Malik Sherrod run for 27 yds to the NEV 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 12 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Nevada Penalty, False Start (Frank Poso) to the NEV 12

1st & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 4 yds to the NEV 16

2nd & 11Penalty+15 yds

Fresno State Penalty, Targeting on JACKS, Jahzon enforced (Jahzon Jacks) to the NEV 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.39

Brendon Lewis pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the NEV 29

2nd & 8Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.12

Mikey Keene sacked by Marcel Walker-Burgess for a loss of 7 yards to the NEV 36

3rd & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 6 yds to the NEV 30

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+48 yds

Dylan Lynch 48 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.51

Brendon Lewis run for 16 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.15

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 14 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.81

Brendon Lewis pass intercepted

1st & 10Safety-2 ydsPPA -2.02

Elijah Gilliam run for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETY

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.69

Sean Dollars run for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 38

2nd & 13Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 5 yds to the NEV 43

3rd & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.97

Brendon Lewis sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the NEV 35

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.15

Elijah Gilliam run for 24 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Elijah Gilliam run for 5 yds to the NEV 41

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

KEENE, Mikey pass to the right incomplete intended for BOUST, Jake thrown to the NEV34. PENALTY FST Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on NELSON, Braylen enforced 5 yards from the NEV41 to the NEV46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the NEV 46

3rd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the NEV 44

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Carson King punt for 34 yds, downed at the NEV 10

1st & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.37

AJ Bianco pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 11 yds to the NEV 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

AJ Bianco pass complete to John Jackson III for 6 yds to the NEV 27

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

AJ Bianco pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.35

AJ Bianco pass complete to John Jackson III for 6 yds to the NEV 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.95

AJ Bianco pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 22 yds to the FRES 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

AJ Bianco pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.54

AJ Bianco run for 11 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

BIANCO, AJ pass deep to the left incomplete intended for LATU, Keleki thrown to the FST15. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on GORDON, Chrishawn enforced 15 yards to the FST19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

AJ Bianco pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 19 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

[NHSG] Kneel down by KEENE, Mikey at FST35 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Nevada

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
32%
25 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
0%
4 plays
56%
9 plays
67%
6 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
0%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

Fresno State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
39%
28 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
100%
3 plays
25%
12 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play