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← Back to GamesNov 16, 2023Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Miami (OH) by 22.9

Home Win Probability

Miami (OH) 90%

Market (Bovada)

Miami (OH) -7.5

Edge: Miami (OH) -7.5 (15.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 16, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BuffaloBuffalo
037010
Miami (OH)Miami (OH)
01031023

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-010-013-313-1020-1023-10
Miami (OH)Buffalo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(PUNT37ydPUNT32ydPUNT31ydPUNT611ydDOWNS1352ydPUNT47ydPUNT3-7ydFG536ydPUNT514ydTD688ydFG1147ydFG960ydTD1375ydPUNT418ydPUNT517ydTD362ydPUNT36ydFG1140ydTO275ydPUNT3-6ydTO1-9ydUncategorized1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Buffalo and Miami (OH)
StatisticBuffaloMiami (OH)
Passing7-179-16
Pass Yards147146
Rush Yards131180
Total Yards278326
Turnovers20
3rd Down7-173-12
Penalties2-132-15
Possession30:0829:52

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Buffalo
passing
Cole Snyder
6/14, 120 YDS
rushing
CJ Ogbonna
16 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Marlyn Johnson
1 REC, 80 YDS
defense
Miami (OH)
passing
Aveon Smith
9/16, 146 YDS
rushing
Rashad Amos
15 CAR, 82 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Javon Tracy
5 REC, 123 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUFF 30

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

CJ Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the BUFF 32

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

CJ Ogbonna run for no gain to the BUFF 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Aveon Smith pass complete to Rashad Amos for 2 yds to the M-OH 25

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Rashad Amos run for no gain to the M-OH 25

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Cade McDonald

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

CJ Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the BUFF 28

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the BUFF 28

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie Curry

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for 1 yd to the M-OH 35

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Miles Marshall

3rd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.62

Aveon Smith pass complete to Luke Bolden for 11 yds to the M-OH 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the M-OH 45

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.

3rd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Aveon Smith run for no gain to the M-OH 45

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cole Harrity at the BUFF 15

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Cole Snyder run for 7 yds to the BUFF 22

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Nik McMillan run for 2 yds to the BUFF 24

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.61

Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUFF 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUFF 27

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Jacqez Barksdale run for 8 yds to the BUFF 35

3rd & 1Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.85

CJ Ogbonna run for 11 yds to the BUFF 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the M-OH 49

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.95

Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the M-OH 48

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.78

Ron Cook Jr. run for 7 yds to the M-OH 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the M-OH 36

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the M-OH 34

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.78

CJ Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the M-OH 33

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.58

CJ Ogbonna pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Aveon Smith run for 10 yds to the M-OH 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Aveon Smith run for no gain to the M-OH 43

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

(13:32) Shotgun Amos,Rashad rush right for 2 yards gain to the MIA45 (Murdock,Red; Bass,Jaylon) PENALTY MIA Holding (Jados,Will) 10 yards from MIA43 to MIA33. NO PLAY.

2nd & 20Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.18

Rashad Amos run for 7 yds to the M-OH 40

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Miles Marshall

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cole Harrity at the BUFF 17

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Jacqez Barksdale run for 6 yds to the BUFF 11

2nd & 16Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.06

Cole Snyder run for 1 yd to the BUFF 12

3rd & 15Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.03

Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 2 yds to the BUFF 10

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the BUFF 44

1st & 10Rush+37 ydsPPA +1.22

Kenny Tracy run for 37 yds to the BUFF 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Aveon Smith run for 1 yd to the BUFF 8

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Miles Marshall

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.

4th & 8Field Goal Good+25 yds

Graham Nicholson 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the BUFF 29

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.95

CJ Ogbonna run for 6 yds to the BUFF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

CJ Ogbonna pass incomplete to Boobie Curry

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the BUFF 39

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie Curry

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the M-OH 12

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.39

Rashad Amos run for 22 yds to the M-OH 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Kevin Davis run for 7 yds to the M-OH 41

2nd & 3Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.58

Aveon Smith pass complete to Javon Tracy for 22 yds to the BUFF 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the BUFF 39

2nd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.81

Aveon Smith pass complete to Luke Bolden for 9 yds to the BUFF 30

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +3.38

Rashad Amos run for 30 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Graham Nicholson kickoff for 56 yds , Cole Harrity return for 14 yds to the BUFF 23

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie Curry

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the BUFF 26

3rd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.23

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 14 yds to the BUFF 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.14

Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 13 yds to the M-OH 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the M-OH 43

2nd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 1 yd to the M-OH 44

3rd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.09

Cole Snyder run for 9 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Mike Washington

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr.

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the M-OH 30

4th & 5Field Goal Good+48 yds

Alex McNulty 48 yd FG GOOD

0th & 5End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Alex McNulty kickoff for 65 yds , Kevin Davis return for 20 yds to the M-OH 20

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Aveon Smith run for 2 yds to the M-OH 18

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Rashad Amos run for 5 yds to the M-OH 23

3rd & 7Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +3.87

Aveon Smith pass complete to Javon Tracy for 37 yds to the BUFF 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Kevin Davis

2nd & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.35

Rashad Amos run for 16 yds to the BUFF 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the BUFF 25

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the BUFF 22

3rd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Aveon Smith pass complete to Javon Tracy for 2 yds to the BUFF 20

4th & 6Field Goal Good+37 yds

Graham Nicholson 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUFF 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

CJ Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the BUFF 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 16 yds to the BUFF 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

CJ Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the BUFF 47

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

CJ Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the M-OH 49

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

CJ Ogbonna run for no gain to the M-OH 49

4th & 4Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.49

Tadd Barr pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 27 yds to the M-OH 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

CJ Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the M-OH 19

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

CJ Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the M-OH 15

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.47

Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the M-OH 15

4th & 3Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY MIA Offside (McKee,Yahsyn) 5 yards from MIA15 to MIA10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Cole Harrity run for 5 yds to the M-OH 5

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the M-OH 3

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

CJ Ogbonna run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+32 yds

Alex McNulty kickoff for 65 yds , Kevin Davis return for 32 yds to the M-OH 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Aveon Smith pass complete to Javon Tracy for 10 yds to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the M-OH 45

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the M-OH 48

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cole Harrity at the BUFF 9

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

CJ Ogbonna run for 5 yds to the BUFF 14

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Ron Cook Jr. run for 8 yds to the BUFF 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the BUFF 22

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the BUFF 26

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.

4th & 6Punt+5 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 41 yds , Cade McDonald returns for 5 yds to the M-OH 38

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Aveon Smith run for 8 yds to the M-OH 46

2nd & 2Pass Reception+52 ydsPPA +2.71

Aveon Smith pass complete to Javon Tracy for 52 yds to the BUFF 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Rashad Amos run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

Graham Nicholson kickoff for 60 yds , Ron Cook Jr. return for 11 yds to the BUFF 46 Buffalo Penalty, Offensive Holding (8 Yards) to the BUFF 8

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

CJ Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the BUFF 11

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

CJ Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the BUFF 14

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Cole Harrity

4th & 4Punt+15 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 47 yds , Cade McDonald returns for 15 yds to the BUFF 46

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.57

Aveon Smith run for 11 yds to the BUFF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the BUFF 38

2nd & 13Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.54

Aveon Smith run for 14 yds to the BUFF 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the BUFF 26

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Aveon Smith run for 5 yds to the BUFF 21

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Aveon Smith run for 6 yds to the BUFF 15

4th & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.25

Rashad Amos run for 10 yds to the BUFF 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the BUFF 4

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the BUFF 6

3rd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Aveon Smith run for no gain to the BUFF 6

4th & 6Field Goal Good+23 yds

Graham Nicholson 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY BUF False Start (Shepard,Caelan) 5 yards from BUF25 to BUF20. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.

2nd & 15Fumble Recovery (Own)+80 yds

Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 80 yds Marlyn Johnson fumbled, recovered by M-OH (00:25) Shotgun Snyder,Cole pass complete short left to Johnson,Marlyn for 80 yards to the MIA00 fumbled by Johnson,Marlyn at MIA01 forced by Dowell,Michael recovered by MIA Miami (OH) at MIA00, Touchback.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

run for 2 yds to the M-OH 18

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.12

run for 2 yds to the M-OH 16

3rd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.04

run for 2 yds to the M-OH 14

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-9 ydsPPA -1.97

Cole Snyder sacked by Caiden Woullard for a loss of 9 yards to the BUFF 22 Cole Snyder fumbled, recovered by M-OH Brian Ugwu , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-9 ydsPPA -1.97

Cole Snyder sacked by Caiden Woullard for a loss of 9 yards to the BUFF 22 Cole Snyder fumbled, recovered by M-OH Brian Ugwu , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

run for 2 yds to the BUFF 24

Situational Analysis

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
36%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
29%
7 plays
10%
10 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
50%
6 plays
33%
6 plays
75%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

Miami (OH)

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
33%
21 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play
20%
5 plays
63%
8 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
50%
6 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play