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← Back to GamesOct 7, 2023Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Central Michigan by 1.8

Home Win Probability

Buffalo 49%

Market (Bovada)

Buffalo +2.5

Edge: Buffalo +2.5 (0.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 7, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Central MichiganCentral Michigan
070613
BuffaloBuffalo
101314037

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-010-713-720-730-737-737-13
BuffaloCentral Michigan

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BUFCMCMBUFCMBUFCMBUFCMBUFCMBUFCMCMBUFCMBUFCMBUFCMBUFCMBUFCMPUNT36ydTD376ydPUNT713ydDOWNS520ydTO10ydFG961ydTD1875ydFG1350ydTO3-1ydTD543ydDOWNS623ydFG518ydTD475ydDOWNS722ydTD647ydPUNT4-1ydPUNT36ydPUNT834ydPUNT37ydPUNT4-4ydMISS1678ydTD1080ydPUNT3-1ydUncategorized432yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Central Michigan and Buffalo
StatisticCentral MichiganBuffalo
Passing28-4920-32
Pass Yards280232
Rush Yards80123
Total Yards360355
Turnovers40
3rd Down6-163-13
Penalties6-505-30
Possession27:4332:17

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Central Michigan
passing
Jase Bauer
28/49, 280 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Jase Bauer
6 CAR, 31 YDS
receiving
Marion Lukes
7 REC, 73 YDS
defense
Buffalo
passing
Cole Snyder
20/32, 232 YDS
rushing
Ron Cook Jr.
11 CAR, 53 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Boobie Curry
4 REC, 74 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

Tristan Mattson kickoff for 53 yds , Ron Cook Jr. return for 11 yds to the BUFF 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 1 yd to the BUFF 24

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUFF 29

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39
4th & 4Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the CMU 26

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

pass incomplete to Chris Parker

3rd & 8Interception Return Touchdown+29 ydsPPA -6.97

Devin Grant 29 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Myles Bailey run for 2 yds to the CMU 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 3 yds to the CMU 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.08

Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 11 yds to the CMU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -2.17

Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 44 Central Michigan Penalty, Offensive holding (Brayden Swartout) to the CMU 34

1st & 17Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 38

2nd & 13Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55
3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 32 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 11 yds to the BUFF 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Cole Harrity run for 6 yds to the BUFF 47

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.24

pass incomplete to Marlyn Johnson

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

Buffalo Penalty, false start (Tyler Doty) to the BUFF 42

3rd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.58

Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Ron Cook Jr. run to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+12 ydsPPA -3.16

Jase Bauer pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 12 yds Jase Bauer fumbled, recovered by BUFF Jaylon Bass

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Victor Snow run for 3 yds to the BUFF 41

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

CJ Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the BUFF 45

3rd & 3Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.75

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 26 yds to the CMU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.18

Cole Snyder pass complete to Chance Morrow for 10 yds to the CMU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.92

Ron Cook Jr. run for 15 yds to the CMU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65
2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

pass incomplete to Cole Harrity

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the CMU 1

4th & 1Field Goal Good+19 yds

Alex McNulty 19 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Myles Bailey run for 2 yds to the CMU 27

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Central Michigan Penalty, false start (Dominic Serapiglia III) to the CMU 22

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Mitchel Collier, broken up by Devin Grant

3rd & 13Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.00

Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 13 yds to the CMU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the CMU 36

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.89

Marion Lukes run for 10 yds to the CMU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Jase Bauer pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 7 yds to the BUFF 47

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.23

pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Myles Bailey run for 2 yds to the BUFF 45

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.02

Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the BUFF 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97
2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt III

3rd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.75

Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 19 yds to the BUFF 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

pass incomplete to Chris Parker

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.77

Myles Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 26

3rd & 11Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.39

Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Parker for 13 yds to the BUFF 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the BUFF 12

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.57

Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 10 yds to the BUFF 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Jesse Prewitt III 2 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Tristan Mattson Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Tristan Mattson kickoff for 61 yds , Ron Cook Jr. return for 20 yds to the BUFF 24

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUFF 25

2nd & 9Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.61

Cole Snyder run for 22 yds to the BUFF 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Cole Snyder sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 46

2nd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.55

Jacqez Barksdale run for 7 yds to the CMU 47

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

pass incomplete to Jacqez Barksdale

4th & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.93

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 10 yds to the CMU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the CMU 35

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 6 yds to the CMU 29

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.49

Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the CMU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cameron Ball for 2 yds to the CMU 24

2nd & 8Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.86

Cole Snyder sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the CMU 26

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

pass incomplete to Cole Harrity Buffalo Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Mike Washington) to the CMU 26

4th & 10Field Goal Good+44 yds

Alex McNulty 44 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Myles Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

pass incomplete

3rd & 11Interception0 ydsPPA +0.17

Jase Bauer pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Cole Snyder run for 1 yd to the CMU 42

2nd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.37

Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 17 yds to the CMU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the CMU 22

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Buffalo Penalty, false start (Darrell Harding Jr.) to the CMU 27

2nd & 12Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.92

Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 24 yds to the CMU 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the CMU 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.09

Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Parker for 10 yds to the CMU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 7 yds to the CMU 48

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.29

pass incomplete to Decorion Temple

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

pass incomplete to Tyson Davis

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Chris Parker, broken up by Jayden Oliver

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.78

Cole Snyder pass complete to Chance Morrow for 15 yds to the CMU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 4 yds to the CMU 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

pass incomplete to Mike Washington

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Buffalo Penalty, false start (Chance Morrow) to the CMU 34

3rd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the CMU 30

4th & 7Field Goal Good+48 yds

Alex McNulty 48 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Parker for 15 yds to the CMU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMU 41

2nd & 9Fumble Recovery (Own)+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the CMU 45 Myles Bailey fumbled, recovered by CMU

3rd & 5Interception Return Touchdown+58 ydsPPA -8.19

Devin Grant 58 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Central Michigan Penalty, false start (Jesse Prewitt III) to the CMU 20

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 22

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

pass incomplete to Stephan Bracey Jr.

3rd & 13Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.97

Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 23 yds to the CMU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 2 yds to the CMU 47

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

pass incomplete to Jacob Kaminski

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt III

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

pass incomplete to Stephan Bracey Jr.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.07

Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 29 yds to the CMU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Ron Cook Jr. run for 9 yds to the CMU 9

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Ron Cook Jr. run for 8 yds to the CMU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96
2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III Central Michigan Penalty, illegal shift (Tristan Mattson) to the CMU 20

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Sam Hicks run for 1 yd to the CMU 21

2nd & 14Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 3 yds to the CMU 24

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Chance Morrow, broken up by Da'Raun McKinney

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 6 yds to the BUFF 46

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 48 yds , Javorian Wimberly returns for no gain to the CMU 5

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +1.31

Myles Bailey run for 16 yds to the CMU 21 Buffalo Penalty, Defensive holding (Cornell Evans) to the CMU 31

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMU 32 Myles Bailey fumbled, recovered by CMU Davis Heinzen

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 7 yds to the CMU 39

3rd & 2Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.90

Jase Bauer sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 38

4th & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.78

Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 10 yds to the CMU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 6 yds to the BUFF 46

3rd & 19Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 46 yds

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion-15 ydsPPA -2.44

Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Marion Lukes Central Michigan Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kenny Brewer III) to the CMU 39

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 4 yds to the BUFF 19

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the BUFF 22

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 29 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception-10 ydsPPA -2.86

Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes Central Michigan Penalty, Offensive holding (Dominic Serapiglia III) to the CMU 39

1st & 20Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Jase Bauer pass complete to Thomas Pannunzio for 6 yds to the CMU 45

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Chris Parker, broken up by Jayden Oliver

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

pass incomplete to Tyson Davis

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the BUFF 21

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.57

Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the BUFF 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

pass incomplete to Boobie Curry

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Buffalo Penalty, false start (Trevor Brock) to the BUFF 22

2nd & 15Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.35

Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 18 yds to the BUFF 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the BUFF 41

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.91

Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 10 yds to the CMU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.75

Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 13 yds to the CMU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie Curry, broken up by Da'Raun McKinney

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.08

Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 14 yds to the CMU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the CMU 16

2nd & 4Rush-8 ydsPPA -1.41

Mike Washington run for a loss of 8 yards to the CMU 24

3rd & 12Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.55

Mike Washington run for 16 yds to the CMU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.48

Mike Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMU 10

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 4 yds to the CMU 6

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

pass incomplete to Cole Harrity

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+24 yds

Alex McNulty 24 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMU 21

2nd & 9Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.29

Jase Bauer run for 21 yds to the CMU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.21

Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 15 yds to the BUFF 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Buffalo Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Mitchel Collier) to the BUFF 43

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 8 yds to the BUFF 35

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.67

Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the BUFF 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.30

Jase Bauer pass complete to Decorion Temple for 14 yds to the BUFF 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.72

Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 14 yds to the BUFF 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 yds

Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt III Central Michigan Penalty, Offensive holding (Davis Heinzen) to the CMU 35

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Tyson Davis 5 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUFF 40

2nd & 8Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.30

Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the BUFF 36

3rd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUFF 37

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.84

Jase Bauer pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 20 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jase Bauer pass complete to Thomas Pannunzio for 5 yds to the BUFF 48

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.75

Jase Bauer pass complete to Stephan Bracey Jr. for 7 yds to the BUFF 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.48

Jase Bauer pass complete to Stephan Bracey Jr. for 13 yds to the BUFF 41 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Central Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
40%
30 plays
25%
4 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
45%
11 plays
0%
6 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
57%
7 plays
4th
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
35%
26 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
17%
6 plays
67%
12 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play