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← Back to GamesSep 30, 2023Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Toledo by 26.2

Home Win Probability

Toledo 94%

Market (Bovada)

Toledo -13.5

Edge: Toledo -13.5 (12.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 30, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois
70101633
ToledoToledo
7714735

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284214-721-1028-1728-2035-2635-33
ToledoNorthern Illinois

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NITOLNITOLNITOLNITOLNITOLNITOLNITOLTOLNITOLNITOLNITOLNITOLNIPUNT829ydDOWNS767ydPUNT3-3ydTD368ydTD385ydTD870ydPUNT30ydPUNT754ydTO763ydPUNT516ydEND32ydTD866ydFG755ydTD320ydTD1285ydFG1038ydTD168ydTD568ydPUNT33ydPUNT30ydPUNT34ydTD776ydPUNT34ydEND641yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Northern Illinois and Toledo
StatisticNorthern IllinoisToledo
Passing21-3116-20
Pass Yards258281
Rush Yards186261
Total Yards444542
Turnovers11
3rd Down2-102-10
Penalties5-408-77
Possession30:3629:24

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Northern Illinois
passing
Rocky Lombardi
21/31, 258 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Antario Brown
16 CAR, 152 YDS
receiving
Kacper Rutkiewicz
5 REC, 45 YDS
defense
Toledo
passing
Dequan Finn
16/20, 281 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Peny Boone
16 CAR, 113 YDS
receiving
Junior Vandeross
4 REC, 147 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 6 yds to the NIU 31

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Trayvon Rudolph run for 3 yds to the NIU 34

3rd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.73

Brock Lampe run for 10 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Northern Illinois Penalty, False Start (Antario Brown) to the NIU 39

1st & 15Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.61

Antario Brown run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.44

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 4 yds to the TOL 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.26

Antario Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 47

2nd & 11Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Antario Brown for 1 yd to the TOL 46

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Tom Foley punt for 42 yds, downed at the TOL 4

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the TOL 12

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+48 ydsPPA +3.57

Peny Boone run for 48 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the NIU 35

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 5 yds to the NIU 30

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -2.85

Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the NIU 29

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -0.95

Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 31 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by NIU Rocky Lombardi

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 33

3rd & 6Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.63

Rocky Lombardi sacked by D'Andre Ragin and Judge Culpepper for a loss of 7 yards to the NIU 26

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Tom Foley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Junior Vandeross III at the TOL 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 12 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.08

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 14 yds to the NIU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+42 ydsPPA +3.29

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 42 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Luke Pawlak kickoff for 64 yds , return for no gain to the NIU 15

1st & 10Rush+80 ydsPPA +4.74

Antario Brown run for 80 yds to the TOL 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the TOL 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the TOL 33

2nd & 7Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.51

Peny Boone run for 21 yds to the NIU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the NIU 41

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the NIU 39

3rd & 3Penalty-10 yds

Toledo Penalty, Offensive Holding (Vinny Sciury) to the NIU 47

3rd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 6 yds to the NIU 41

4th & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)+28 ydsPPA +3.04

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 28 yds fumbled, recovered by TOL for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Dequan Finn run for 13 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.93

Rocky Lombardi sacked by Darius Alexander for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 24

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 26

3rd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.17

Gavin Williams run for no gain to the NIU 26

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Tom Foley punt for 64 yds, downed at the TOL 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+46 ydsPPA +3.38

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 46 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the NIU 43

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the NIU 36

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.77

Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the NIU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

FINN, Dequan scrambles to the left for no gain to the NIU32, out of bounds. PENALTY TOL Holding on SCHWIEBERT, Garrett enforced 10 yards from the NIU32 to the NIU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 20Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 43

3rd & 21Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 7 yds to the NIU 36

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 16 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 35

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Rocky Lombardi run for 13 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.17

Trayvon Rudolph run for a loss of 5 yards to the NIU 43

2nd & 15Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.28

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Billy Dozier for 24 yds to the TOL 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Antario Brown run for no gain to the TOL 33

2nd & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.34

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Brock Lampe for 26 yds to the TOL 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the TOL 3

2nd & 3Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -4.79

Brock Lampe run for 1 yd to the TOL 2 Brock Lampe fumbled, recovered by TOL Nate Bauer

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 4

2nd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.60

Peny Boone run for 13 yds to the TOL 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the TOL 21

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Toledo Penalty, False Start (Larry Stephens) to the TOL 16

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.12

Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the TOL 18

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 35

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 7 yds to the NIU 42

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

Northern Illinois Penalty, False Start (Christion Carter) to the NIU 37

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

0th & 8End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

3rd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Gavin Williams run for no gain to the NIU 37

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the TOL 38

2nd & 6Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.20

Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 20 yds to the NIU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.88

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 9 yds to the NIU 33

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.31

Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the NIU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.47

Peny Boone run for no gain to the NIU 26

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.62

Dequan Finn run for 10 yds to the NIU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the NIU 7

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +1.95

Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Antario Brown run for 15 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NIU 49

2nd & 6Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.77

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 28 yds to the TOL 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 7 yds to the TOL 16

2nd & 3Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 1 yd to the TOL 15

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

4th & 2Field Goal Good+32 yds

Kanon Woodill 32 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Jake Seibert kickoff for 42 yds , return for no gain to the TOL 30

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.28

Dequan Finn run for 15 yds to the TOL 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Return Touchdown+50 ydsPPA -9.72

Nate Valcarcel 50 Yd Fumble Return (Kanon Woodill Kick)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

QB Keeper FINN, Dequan rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the TOL20 (GUMBS, George). PENALTY TOL Holding on NEWTON, Jerjuan enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the TOL15 to the TOL8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 17Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.11

Jacquez Stuart run for 17 yds to the TOL 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Northern Illinois Penalty, Targeting on MCGARRELL, Cyrus enforced (15 Yards) to the NIU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the NIU 34

2nd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.10

Dequan Finn pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 10 yds to the NIU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Connor Walendzak run for no gain to the NIU 24

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.26

Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 7 yds to the NIU 17

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the NIU 16

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.71

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the NIU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the NIU 10

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Connor Walendzak run for 4 yds to the NIU 6

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.45

Dequan Finn pass complete to Dalton Andrews for 4 yds to the NIU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the NIU 35

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.93

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Antario Brown for 6 yds to the NIU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.38

Antario Brown run for no gain to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.03

Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.94

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 21 yds to the TOL 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.49

Antario Brown run for no gain to the TOL 27

2nd & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.65

Billy Dozier run for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 32

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

4th & 15Field Goal Good+49 yds

Kanon Woodill 49 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+68 ydsPPA +5.52

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 68 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Antario Brown run for 8 yds to the NIU 40

2nd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds to the NIU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.04

Antario Brown run for 15 yds to the TOL 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

LOMBARDI, Rocky pass deep to the right incomplete intended for RUDOLPH, Trayvon thrown to the TOL9. PENALTY TOL Pass Interference on DELANCY III, Ronald enforced 15 yards to the TOL24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.68

Jalen Johnson 24 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd to the NIU 49

3rd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 1 yd to the NIU 48

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 44 yds, downed at the NIU 4

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.12

Antario Brown run for no gain to the NIU 4

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Tom Foley punt for 52 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the NIU 44

3rd & 2Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.94

Peny Boone run for a loss of 4 yards to the NIU 48

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 6 yds to the NIU 30

2nd & 4Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.81

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 18 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.00

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Davis Patterson for 16 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.58

Rocky Lombardi run for 8 yds to the TOL 28

2nd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 3 yds to the TOL 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.17

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 13 yds to the TOL 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Christion Carter for 12 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the NIU 42

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the NIU 41

3rd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the NIU 39

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 14

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

LOMBARDI, Rocky pass deep to the left intercepted by MCNEIL-WARREN, Emmanuel at the TOL49 intended for PATTERSON, Davis. McNeil-Warren return for 0 yards to the TOL49, End of Play, clock 00:00. PENALTY TOL Offsides on HOLT, Deshawn enforced 5 yards from the NIU14 to the NIU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

1st & 5Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.36

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 16 yds to the NIU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Rocky Lombardi run for 7 yds to the TOL 45

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.25

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Davis Patterson for 13 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Northern Illinois

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
59%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
33%
6 plays
80%
5 plays
29%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
20%
5 plays
0%
1 play
4th

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
46%
26 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
64%
11 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play