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← Back to GamesNov 25, 2023Week 13
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Troy by 27.5

Home Win Probability

Southern Miss 6%

Market (Bovada)

Southern Miss +17.5

Edge: Troy -17.5 (10.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 25, 2023

Line Movement

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
TroyTroy
7714735
Southern MissSouthern Miss
0107017

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-73-710-1410-2110-2817-2817-35
Southern MissTroy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SMTROSMTROSMTROSMTROSMTROSMTROSMTROTROSMSMTROSMTROSMTROPUNT3-4ydDOWNS520ydPUNT427ydTD880ydPUNT3-2ydTO329ydFG947ydPUNT513ydTD380ydTD575ydPUNT824ydDOWNS844ydDOWNS626ydTO629ydTD1175ydTD715ydTD1163ydPUNT44ydPUNT3-17ydTD253ydPUNT927ydEND1055yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Troy and Southern Miss
StatisticTroySouthern Miss
Passing22-3511-23
Pass Yards319132
Rush Yards108154
Total Yards427286
Turnovers21
3rd Down3-97-16
Penalties1-157-67
Possession28:2631:34

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Troy
passing
Gunnar Watson
21/34, 289 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kimani Vidal
16 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jabre Barber
6 REC, 81 YDS
defense
Southern Miss
passing
Ethan Crawford
11/21, 132 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Frank Gore Jr.
13 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Frank Gore Jr.
5 REC, 59 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ethan Crawford pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 28

3rd & 7Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.42

Ethan Crawford sacked by Terry Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the USM 21

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.95

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 11 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 6 yds to the USM 41

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

4th & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -1.54

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 3 yds to the USM 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.16

Ethan Crawford pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 33 yds to the TROY 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.67

Ethan Crawford sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 30

2nd & 11Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.62

Ethan Crawford sacked by Jayden McDonald and T.J. Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 34

3rd & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 35

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 35 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Gunnar Watson run for 7 yds to the TROY 27

2nd & 3Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +2.77

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 35 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.98

Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 39

2nd & 11Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.39

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 15 yds to the USM 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the USM 21

2nd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.50

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 13 yds to the USM 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the USM 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

0th & 0Penalty0 yds

Southern Miss Penalty, Offsides (Yards) to the USM 2

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.22

Ethan Crawford sacked by Malaki Pegues for a loss of 6 yards to the USM 21

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Frank Gore Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 16Penalty-10 yds

(04:35) CRAWFORD, Ethan pass to the right complete for 33 yards to JONES, Latreal caught at the USM35 and advanced to the TRO46 (STEWARD, Reddy). PENALTY USM Holding on RAMSEY, Bryce enforced 10 yards from the USM21 to the USM11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 26Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.08

Ethan Crawford run for 14 yds to the USM 25

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 28

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.58

Damien Taylor run for 17 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+12 ydsPPA -1.56

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 12 yds Devonte Ross fumbled, recovered by USM Jay Stanley (02:46) [NHSG] WATSON, Gunnar pass to the right complete for 12 yards to ROSS, Devonte caught at the USM46, ROSS, Devonte fumbled at USM44 forced by DANIELS, MJ, recovered by USM STANLEY, Jay at the USM43, returned 8 yards to the TRO49 (OLLENDIECK, Clayton;DANIELS, MJ), clock 02:32.

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Ethan Crawford run for no gain to the TROY 49

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the TROY 49

3rd & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.23

Ethan Crawford pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 26 yds to the TROY 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the TROY 23

2nd & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.20

Rodrigues Clark run for 18 yds to the TROY 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the TROY 3

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the TROY 1

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.40

Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 2

4th & 2Field Goal Good+19 yds

Andrew Stein 19 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.98

Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 48

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 52 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.78

Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the USM 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.14

Ethan Crawford run for 12 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+57 ydsPPA +4.47

Frank Gore Jr. run for 57 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the TROY 30

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

(10:01) WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left incomplete dropped by CONNER, Ethan thrown to the TRO45. PENALTY USM Unnecessary Roughness on LAWRENCE, Dylan enforced 15 yards from the TRO30 to the TRO45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.20

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +2.83

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 37 yds to the USM 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 13 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Ethan Crawford run for 7 yds to the USM 32

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Ethan Crawford pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Ethan Crawford pass incomplete

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 31

3rd & 15Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.23

Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 18 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 48

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Ethan Crawford run for 1 yd to the USM 49

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Ethan Crawford pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 32 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.73

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 16 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.17

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 17 yds to the USM 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the USM 43

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 4 yds to the USM 39

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the USM 37

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.20

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 41

2nd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.80

Ethan Crawford pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 15 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the TROY 42

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Ethan Crawford pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 4 yds to the TROY 38

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the TROY 37

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.06

Frank Gore Jr. pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.29

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 14 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the USM 43

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.60

Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the USM 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.40

Gunnar Watson pass intercepted, touchback. Chris Lewis return for no gain

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 9 yds to the TROY 34

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.34

Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 40

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.28

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 10 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.19

Gunnar Watson run for 2 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

(11:54) WATSON, Gunnar pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ROSS, Devonte thrown to the USM23. PENALTY USM Holding on DANIELS, MJ enforced 10 yards from the USM48 to the USM38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.55

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 24 yds to the USM 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the USM 12

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 3 yds to the USM 9

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.61

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 7 yds to the USM 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 23

2nd & 12Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.01

Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 15 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Ethan Crawford pass complete to Micheal Caraway Jr. for 9 yds to the USM 47

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.18

Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Ethan Crawford run for no gain to the TROY 49

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Ethan Crawford pass incomplete

3rd & 10Fumble Return Touchdown+40 ydsPPA -8.10

Chris Rodgers 40 Yd Fumble Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Ethan Crawford pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 40

3rd & 7Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.79

Ethan Crawford run for 13 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Ethan Crawford pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 7 yds to the TROY 40

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Ethan Crawford pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.06

Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Tiaquelin Mims run for 4 yds to the TROY 33

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the TROY 32

3rd & 5Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.15

Ethan Crawford run for 14 yds to the TROY 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Ethan Crawford pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.94

Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 18 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.47

Kimani Vidal run for 16 yds to the TROY 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 45

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)-14 ydsPPA -1.19

Gunnar Watson run for a loss of 14 yards to the TROY 31 Gunnar Watson fumbled, recovered by TROY (14:53) [NHSG] QB Keeper WATSON, Gunnar rush up the middle for a loss of 14 yards, WATSON, Gunnar fumbled at TRO43 forced by CARR, Josh, recovered by TRO GILMORE, Billy at the TRO31, returned 0 yards to the TRO31, End of Play.

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.93

Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the USM 32

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.58

Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 31

3rd & 11Sack-16 ydsPPA -0.37

Ethan Crawford sacked by Malaki Pegues and Chris Rodgers for a loss of 16 yards to the USM 15

4th & 27Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 47

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.91

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Asa Martin for 13 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

(11:34) WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left incomplete intended for CONNER, Ethan thrown to the USM25. PENALTY USM Holding on DANIELS, MJ enforced 10 yards from the USM40 to the USM30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +2.81

Chris Lewis pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 30 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Ethan Crawford pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Ethan Crawford run for 6 yds to the USM 21

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.87

Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the USM 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the USM 33

3rd & 2Penalty+15 yds

Troy Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jordan Stringer) to the TROY 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Ethan Crawford pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Ethan Crawford run for 2 yds to the TROY 46

3rd & 8Sack-12 ydsPPA -1.86

Ethan Crawford sacked by Luis Medina for a loss of 12 yards to the USM 42

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 9

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Jordan Lovett run for 1 yd to the TROY 10

2nd & 9Penalty+5 yds

Southern Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the TROY 15

3rd & 4Penalty+15 yds

Southern Miss Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jay Stanley) to the TROY 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Jordan Lovett run for 2 yds to the TROY 32

2nd & 8Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.89

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Brody Dalton for 25 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.16

Jordan Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 44

2nd & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.15

Jordan Lovett run for 10 yds to the USM 34

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Jordan Lovett run for no gain to the USM 34

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.50

Jarris Williams run for 2 yds to the USM 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

(01:13) [NH] Kneel down by TRO at USM34 (team loss of 2).

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.92

(00:34) [NH] Kneel down by TRO at USM36 (team loss of 2).

Situational Analysis

Troy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
45%
31 plays
2nd
100%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
12 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play

Southern Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
28%
25 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
27%
11 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play