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← Back to GamesOct 28, 2023Week 9
TroyTroy
31
-Final
13
Texas StateTexas State
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Troy by 8

Home Win Probability

Texas State 30%

Market (Bovada)

Texas State +6.5

Edge: Troy -6.5 (1.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 28, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
TroyTroy
0771731
Texas StateTexas State
733013

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-710-713-1413-2113-2813-31
Texas StateTroy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTD884ydDOWNS644ydPUNT516ydDOWNS726ydTO775ydTD680ydTO733ydPUNT735ydFG1176ydPUNT521ydPUNT30ydEND615ydTD475ydFG1169ydPUNT519ydTO645ydTD1067ydDOWNS47ydTD432ydTO733ydPUNT37ydDOWNS4-2ydFG716ydEND420yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Troy and Texas State
StatisticTroyTexas State
Passing26-4025-40
Pass Yards392276
Rush Yards28161
Total Yards420437
Turnovers04
3rd Down7-155-14
Penalties5-494-47
Possession30:5829:02

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Troy
passing
Gunnar Watson
26/40, 392 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Kimani Vidal
18 CAR, 43 YDS
receiving
Jabre Barber
10 REC, 160 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Texas State
passing
TJ Finley
24/38, 262 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Ismail Mahdi
20 CAR, 128 YDS
receiving
Kole Wilson
8 REC, 71 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Zach Long kickoff for 63 yds , Ismail Mahdi return for 14 yds to the TXST 16

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.71

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 8 yds to the TXST 24

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the TXST 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.92

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 10 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 41

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.69

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.84

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 8 yds to the TROY 42

2nd & 2Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.24

Ismail Mahdi run for 14 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 28 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Kimani Vidal run for 17 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.47

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 20 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.78

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TXST 38

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TXST 37

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Ethan Conner

4th & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA -1.33

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 6 yds to the TXST 31

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 33

2nd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.80

TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the TXST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TXST 48

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey Hobert

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

TJ Finley run for 1 yd to the TXST 47

4th & 7Punt+35 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 35 yds , Jabre Barber returns for 35 yds to the TXST 47

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TXST 45

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 4 yds to the TXST 41

3rd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.56

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 12 yds to the TXST 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Jabre Barber run for 8 yds to the TXST 21

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.60

Damien Taylor run for no gain to the TXST 21

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.62

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TXST 21

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.50

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Devonte Ross

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.15

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 25 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+9 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,TJ pass incomplete short left to Wilson,Kole PENALTY TROY Pass Interference (Steward,Reddy) 9 yards from TXST46 to TROY45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +0.83

Ismail Mahdi run for 23 yds to the TROY 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 4 yds to the TROY 18

2nd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.48

TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 11 yds to the TROY 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TROY 4

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr.

3rd & 4Interception0 ydsPPA -4.30

TJ Finley pass intercepted, touchback.

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.20

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 26 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TROY 46

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon Stoudemire

3rd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +3.31

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 19 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-15 ydsPPA -3.55

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for no gain to the TXST 35 Troy Penalty, Personal Foul (Jabre Barber) to the 50 yard line

1st & 25Pass Reception+47 ydsPPA +4.27

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 47 yds to the TXST 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Gunnar Watson run for 3 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey Hobert

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the TXST 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.45

TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 15 yds to the TXST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

TJ Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Donerio Davenport run for 3 yds to the TXST 45

3rd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.76

TJ Finley pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 13 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.71

TJ Finley pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 17

2nd & 9Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.19

Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds to the TROY 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the TROY 38

2nd & 1Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.60

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Gunnar Watson run for 2 yds to the TXST 33

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.82

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TXST 33

3rd & 8Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.73

Gunnar Watson sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 11 yards to the TXST 44

4th & 19Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY TROY Delay Of Game (Cole,Robert) 5 yards from TXST44 to TXST49. NO PLAY.

4th & 24Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 49 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.69

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 10 yds to the TXST 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 33

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.77

Ismail Mahdi run for 12 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,TJ pass incomplete deep right to Hawkins,Ashtyn PENALTY TROY Pass Interference (Callis,Don) 15 yards from TXST45 to TROY40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.57

Ismail Mahdi run for 20 yds to the TROY 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Jahmyl Jeter run for 6 yds to the TROY 14

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the TROY 13

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.34

Donerio Davenport run for 4 yds to the TROY 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Donerio Davenport run for no gain to the TROY 9

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.14

TJ Finley pass complete to Malik Hornsby for 2 yds to the TROY 7

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

TJ Finley run for 3 yds to the TROY 4

4th & 4Field Goal Good+21 yds

Mason Shipley 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Matthew Velasco kickoff for 64 yds , Devonte Ross return for 20 yds to the TROY 21

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 23

2nd & 8Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.15

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 19 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris Lewis

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Ethan Conner

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon Stoudemire

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 24

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.67

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for no gain to the TXST 24

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey Hobert

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr.

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 27 yds

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Devonte Ross

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris Lewis

3rd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.94

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 15 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Clayton Ollendieck

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris Lewis

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.89

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 21 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 9 yds to the TXST 29

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +2.29

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 29 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the TXST 32

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.23

Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole Wilson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.12

TJ Finley pass complete to Beau Corrales for 26 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TROY 36

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TROY 35

3rd & 6Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.55

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 22 yds to the TROY 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TROY 9

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the TROY 9

3rd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the TROY 6

4th & 3Field Goal Good+23 yds

Mason Shipley 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.27

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Landon Parker for 29 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 4 yds to the TXST 46

3rd & 9Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.69

Gunnar Watson sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 10 yards to the TROY 44

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

TJ Finley pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 4 yds to the TXST 26

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-Jones

3rd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.42

TJ Finley pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 6 yds to the TXST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.15

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 12 yds to the TXST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Ismail Mahdi run for 11 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+12 ydsPPA -3.52

Ismail Mahdi run for 12 yds to the TROY 33 Ismail Mahdi fumbled, recovered by TROY Javon Solomon No Huddle-Shotgun Mahdi,Ismail rush left for 12 yards gain to the TROY33 fumbled by Mahdi,Ismail at TROY40 recovered by TROY Solomon,Javon at TROY33, End Of Play.

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.33

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 14 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -2.92

Gunnar Watson sacked by Tavian Coleman for a loss of 12 yards to the TROY 35

2nd & 22Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.38

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 9 yds to the TROY 44

3rd & 13Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.50

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 17 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.46

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 15 yds to the TXST 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre Barber

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 1 yd to the TXST 23

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

Troy Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declined

2nd & 11Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY TROY False Start (Graham,Derrick) 5 yards from TXST12 to TXST17. NO PLAY.

2nd & 16Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 3 yds to the TXST 14

3rd & 13Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +3.37

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 14 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Joey Hobert run for 1 yd to the TXST 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.58

TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 9 yds to the TXST 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 34

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.65

Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +0.99

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Brody Dalton for 27 yds to the TXST 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kimani Vidal

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TXST 4

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Landon Parker for 4 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

TJ Finley run for 3 yds to the TXST 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.89

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 14 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole Wilson

2nd & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +3.00

TJ Finley run for 24 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ismail Mahdi

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 5 yds to the TROY 35

3rd & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+7 ydsPPA -3.03

TJ Finley run for 7 yds to the TROY 42 TJ Finley fumbled, recovered by TROY Eric Shaw No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,TJ rush middle for 7 yards loss to the TROY42 fumbled by Finley,TJ at TROY40 forced by Stringer,Jordan recovered by TROY Shaw,Eric at TROY42, End Of Play.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 39

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris Lewis

3rd & 13Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.68

Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the TROY 49

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TXST 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.65

TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 7 yds to the TXST 35

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ismail Mahdi

3rd & 3Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.01

TJ Finley sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 9 yards to the TXST 26

4th & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.30

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole Wilson

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TXST 29

2nd & 13Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.42

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 8 yds to the TXST 21

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.60

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Brody Dalton for 8 yds to the TXST 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TXST 10

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TXST 12

3rd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TXST 10

4th & 7Field Goal Good+27 yds

Scott Taylor Renfroe 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.07

Malik Hornsby run for 23 yds to the TXST 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Malik Hornsby pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins

2nd & 15Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.13

Malik Hornsby pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 14 yds to the TROY 43

3rd & 1Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.21

Malik Hornsby run for 12 yds to the TXST 45

Situational Analysis

Troy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
37%
27 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
18%
11 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
100%
3 plays
25%
8 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
41%
34 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
75%
4 plays
17%
6 plays
55%
11 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play