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← Back to GamesOct 7, 2023Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Troy by 26

Home Win Probability

Troy 93%

Market (Bovada)

Troy -15.5

Edge: Troy -15.5 (10.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 7, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Arkansas StateArkansas State
00033
TroyTroy
71331437

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-017-023-030-037-3
TroyArkansas State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TROASTROASTROASTROASTROASTROASTROASTROASTROASTROASTROASTROTD1275ydPUNT32ydPUNT34ydPUNT610ydTO5-15ydPUNT427ydTD671ydPUNT36ydPUNT3-1ydDOWNS48ydFG727ydDOWNS839ydFG753ydDOWNS721ydFG959ydPUNT38ydPUNT518ydPUNT421ydTD895ydPUNT514ydTD378ydFG1347ydDOWNS620yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Arkansas State and Troy
StatisticArkansas StateTroy
Passing15-2712-21
Pass Yards156236
Rush Yards47351
Total Yards203587
Turnovers01
3rd Down4-166-14
Penalties2-228-75
Possession25:5634:04

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Arkansas State
passing
Jaylen Raynor
15/27, 156 YDS
rushing
Zak Wallace
9 CAR, 28 YDS
receiving
Jeff Foreman
4 REC, 76 YDS
defense
Troy
passing
Gunnar Watson
12/21, 236 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Kimani Vidal
28 CAR, 245 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
Deshon Stoudemire
4 REC, 98 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 4 yds to the TROY 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 33

3rd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.93

Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 1 yd to the TROY 45

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.95

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 12 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the ARST 38

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.36

Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Troy Penalty, False Start (Derrick Graham) to the ARST 38

1st & 15Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.00

Kimani Vidal run for 20 yds to the ARST 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the ARST 17

2nd & 9Penalty+12 yds

WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left incomplete intended for STOUDEMIRE, Deshon thrown to the AST6. PENALTY AST Pass Interference on HODGES, Justin enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the AST5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the ARST 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the ARST 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.03

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 37 yds, downed at the TROY 36

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Asa Martin run for 4 yds to the TROY 40

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 20

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 5 yds to the ARST 25

3rd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Zak Wallace run for 9 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 5 yds to the ARST 39

2nd & 5Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.81

Jaylen Raynor sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 32

3rd & 12Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.30

Jaylen Raynor sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 27

4th & 17Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 48 yds , Jabre Barber returns for no gain Troy Penalty, Offensive Holding (Daniel King) to the TROY 20

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 24

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 27

3rd & 3Penalty+10 yds

WATSON, Gunnar pass to the right complete for 3 yards to BARBER, Jabre caught at the TRO27 and advanced to the TRO30 (MOTLEY, Dane). PENALTY AST Holding on PARKS, Justin enforced 10 yards from the TRO27 to the TRO37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TROY 39

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 5 yds to the TROY 44

3rd & 3Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-54 ydsPPA -1.38

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for a loss of 39 yards Deshon Stoudemire fumbled, recovered by ARST Trevian Thomas Troy Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Daniel King) to the ARST 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.29

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 18 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 36

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the ARST 42

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 44

4th & 1Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 27 yds

1st & 10Rush+33 ydsPPA +2.68

Kimani Vidal run for 33 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.23

Gunnar Watson run for 16 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.43

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Asa Martin for 20 yds to the ARST 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the ARST 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 24

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 5 yds to the ARST 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 31

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.47

Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 6 yards to the TROY 25

2nd & 16Penalty-5 yds

Troy Penalty, False Start (Clayton Ollendieck) to the TROY 20

2nd & 21Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 21Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.31

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 15 yds to the TROY 35

4th & 6Penalty-5 yds

COLE, Robert punt 52 yards to the AST13, JACKSON, Courtney returned -1 yard to the AST12 (LEE, Phillip), clock 08:39. PENALTY Before the snap, TRO Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the TRO35 to the TRO30. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 33

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the ARST 38

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

Zak Wallace run for no gain to the ARST 38

4th & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.36

Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 37

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.78

Damien Taylor run for 9 yds to the ARST 28

2nd & 1Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.47

Damien Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 32

3rd & 5Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.42

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 24 yds to the ARST 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the ARST 5

2nd & 5Penalty-10 yds

VIDAL, Kimani rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the AST4 (THOMAS, Trevian;JONES, Leon). PENALTY TRO Holding on OLLENDIECK, Clayton enforced 10 yards from the AST5 to the AST15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 5 yds to the ARST 10

4th & 10Field Goal Good+27 yds

Scott Taylor Renfroe 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 18 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the ARST 48

3rd & 5Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.50

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 15 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the TROY 33

3rd & 6Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.65

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 36

4th & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.42

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the TROY 45

2nd & 1Penalty-10 yds

Troy Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TROY 44

2nd & 2Rush+36 ydsPPA +1.49

Kimani Vidal run for 36 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the ARST 19

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.35

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Asa Martin for 8 yds to the ARST 11

4th & 1Field Goal Good+28 yds

Scott Taylor Renfroe 28 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Zach Long kickoff for 60 yds , return for no gain to the TROY 40

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the TROY 38

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.85

Jaylen Raynor run for 10 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the TROY 26

2nd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 1 yd to the TROY 25

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the TROY 20

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -3.55

Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the TROY 19

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 23

2nd & 6Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.68

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.70

Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the ARST 37

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Damien Taylor run for 10 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the ARST 21

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Damien Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 22

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+39 yds

Scott Taylor Renfroe 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ARST 43

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 6 yds to the ARST 49

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 6

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 10

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the TROY 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 18

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 19

3rd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the TROY 24

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.60

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 17 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the TROY 47

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 42 yds, downed at the TROY 5

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TROY 7

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.95

Damien Taylor run for 14 yds to the TROY 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Damien Taylor run for 8 yds to the TROY 29

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.01

Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the TROY 36

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TROY 36

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+64 ydsPPA +6.54

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 64 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 30

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the ARST 38

2nd & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Jaylen Raynor sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 33

3rd & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 6 yds to the ARST 39

4th & 9Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the TROY 27

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 31

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+69 ydsPPA +6.28

Kimani Vidal 69 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brian Snead run for no gain to the ARST 25

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.46

Brian Snead run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 22

3rd & 13Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +4.06

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 38 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

4th & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +3.35

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 16 yds to the TROY 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.59

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 12 yds to the TROY 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Brian Snead run for 1 yd to the TROY 11

2nd & 9Sack-11 ydsPPA -1.73

Jaylen Raynor sacked by Julian Peterson for a loss of 11 yards to the TROY 22

3rd & 20Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.02

Jaylen Raynor sacked by Eric Shaw for a loss of 6 yards to the TROY 28

4th & 26Field Goal Good+45 yds

Dominic Zvada 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 28

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.62

Jarris Williams run for 12 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jarris Williams run for 3 yds to the TROY 43

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.32

Goose Crowder run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 41

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Jarris Williams run for 3 yds to the TROY 44

4th & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Jarris Williams run for 1 yd to the TROY 45

Situational Analysis

Arkansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
29%
21 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
42%
12 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays

Troy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
33%
27 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
33%
9 plays
50%
10 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play