Skip to main content
← Back to GamesSep 30, 2023Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Georgia State by 5.7

Home Win Probability

Georgia State 65%

Market (Bovada)

Georgia State -1

Edge: Georgia State -1 (4.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 30, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
TroyTroy
3315728
Georgia StateGeorgia State
07007

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-30-67-67-137-217-28
Georgia StateTroy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20GSTROGSTROGSTROGSTROGSTROTROGSTROGSTROGSTROGSTROGSTO557ydFG1293ydPUNT729ydFG1064ydTD1575ydPUNT518ydPUNT3-3ydTO35ydPUNT36ydEND22ydTD675ydTO21ydMISS41ydPUNT7-3ydTD858ydDOWNS1043ydPUNT42ydTO766ydTD1468ydEND12yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Troy and Georgia State
StatisticTroyGeorgia State
Passing23-3019-29
Pass Yards256193
Rush Yards154105
Total Yards410298
Turnovers13
3rd Down6-135-13
Penalties4-355-36
Possession34:4825:12

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Troy
passing
Gunnar Watson
23/30, 256 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kimani Vidal
23 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jabre Barber
7 REC, 121 YDS
defense
Georgia State
passing
Darren Grainger
19/29, 193 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Marcus Carroll
19 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Robert Lewis
6 REC, 114 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.40

Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +1.31

Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 38 yds to the TROY 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the TROY 12

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the TROY 8

3rd & 6Interception0 ydsPPA -4.14

Darren Grainger pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 7

2nd & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.55

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 12 yds to the TROY 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 2 yds to the TROY 21

2nd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.36

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 12 yds to the TROY 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.67

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 18 yds to the GAST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.17

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 31 yds to the GAST 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the GAST 14

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.93

Damien Taylor run for 10 yds to the GAST 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

run for no gain to the GAST 4

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the GAST 4

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+22 yds

Scott Taylor Renfroe 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Marcus Carroll run for 17 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 4 yds to the GAST 46

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.28

Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Georgia State Penalty, False Start (Tailique Williams) to the GAST 48

1st & 15Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.22

Marcus Carroll run for 10 yds to the TROY 42

2nd & 5Penalty-10 yds

CARROLL, Marcus rush up the middle for no gain to the TRO42 (MCDONALD, Jayden). PENALTY GSU Holding on BROWN, Jonathan enforced 10 yards from the TRO42 to the GSU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Darren Grainger pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 6 yds to the TROY 46

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Kade Loggins punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 14

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 16

2nd & 8Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +3.32

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 37 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the GAST 46

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 6 yds to the GAST 40

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.10

Gunnar Watson run for 4 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.29

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 10 yds to the GAST 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the GAST 20

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 3 yds to the GAST 17

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

Troy Penalty, False Start (Grant Betts) to the GAST 22

4th & 6Field Goal Good+38 yds

Scott Taylor Renfroe 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Darren Grainger run for 9 yds to the GAST 34

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Darren Grainger run for 1 yd to the GAST 37

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Darren Grainger pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.79

Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 12 yds to the GAST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -2.00

Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for a loss of 4 yards to the GAST 45

2nd & 14Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.70

Darren Grainger run for 8 yds to the TROY 47

3rd & 6Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.46

Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 19 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.18

Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 11 yds to the TROY 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Darren Grainger run for 1 yd to the TROY 16

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Darren Grainger pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Darren Grainger pass complete to Peter Kikwata for 7 yds to the TROY 9

4th & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.54

Marcus Carroll run for 6 yds to the TROY 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the TROY 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Landon Parker for 8 yds to the TROY 33

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 7 yds to the TROY 42

3rd & 3Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 1 yd to the TROY 43

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jacari Carter at the GAST 19

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Darren Grainger pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GAST 20

3rd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.11

Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 1 yd to the GAST 21

4th & 8Penalty-5 yds

Georgia State Penalty, False Start (Justin Abraham) to the GAST 16

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Kade Loggins punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 49

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 4 yds to the GAST 47

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the GAST 46

3rd & 5Interception0 ydsPPA -2.02

Gunnar Watson pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 2 yds to the GAST 30

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 4 yds to the GAST 34

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Darren Grainger pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Kade Loggins punt for 38 yds, downed at the TROY 28

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

VIDAL, Kimani rush up the middle for a gain of 12 yards to the TRO40 (SWINT, Kevin). PENALTY TRO Holding on RUSS, Eli enforced 10 yards from the TRO28 to the TRO18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 22

2nd & 16Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.21

Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the TROY 30

0th & 16End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 23

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.36

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 16 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 9 yds to the TROY 48

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

VIDAL, Kimani rush to the left for a gain of 15 yards to the TRO48 (MCCOLLUM, Shamar), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY TRO Holding on BETTS, Grant GSU Horse Collar Tackle on MCCOLLUM, Shamar , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.02

Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the GAST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+45 ydsPPA +3.48

Damien Taylor run for 45 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GAST 26

2nd & 9Interception0 ydsPPA -0.33

Darren Grainger pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.81

Damien Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the GAST 28

2nd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Damien Taylor for 4 yds to the GAST 24

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+42 yds

Scott Taylor Renfroe 42 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

GRAINGER, Darren pass deep to the right complete for 51 yards to WILLIAMS, Tailique caught at the TRO38 and advanced to the TRO25 (PETTUS, Dell). PENALTY GSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BROWN, Jonathan enforced 5 yards from the GSU24 to the GSU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Darren Grainger pass incomplete

2nd & 15Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.19

Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the GAST 15

3rd & 19Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.43

Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 17 yds to the GAST 32

4th & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Travis Glover run for 5 yds to the GAST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Darren Grainger pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.97

Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for a loss of 4 yards to the GAST 33

3rd & 14Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.31

Darren Grainger sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the GAST 21

4th & 26Punt0 yds

Kade Loggins punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 42

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.15

Kimani Vidal run for 14 yds to the GAST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the GAST 39

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.54

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the GAST 37

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.96

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 4 yds to the GAST 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.29

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 13 yds to the GAST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the GAST 14

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.86

Kimani Vidal 14 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Gunnar Watson Pass to Deyunkrea Lewis for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Darren Grainger run for 11 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the GAST 36

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.72

Marcus Carroll run for 8 yds to the GAST 44

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.37

Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.37

Marcus Carroll run for 11 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the TROY 36

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the TROY 34

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the TROY 32

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.54

Darren Grainger pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 35

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 36

3rd & 6Penalty-15 yds

Troy Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Kimani Vidal) to the TROY 23

3rd & 19Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.19

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 11 yds to the TROY 34

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.92

Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 10 yds to the GAST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the GAST 39

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 6 yds to the GAST 45

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.84

Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+49 ydsPPA +2.90

Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 49 yds to the TROY 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the TROY 1

2nd & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-4 ydsPPA -5.10

Darren Grainger run for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 32 Darren Grainger fumbled, recovered by TROY Jayden McDonald

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the TROY 33

2nd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.19

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 14 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TROY 49

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 4 yds to the GAST 47

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.63

Gunnar Watson run for 5 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Troy Penalty, Delay Of Game (Dell Pettus) to the GAST 47

1st & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.26

Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 48

2nd & 16Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.65

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 16 yds to the GAST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+11 yds

WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left incomplete intended for LEWIS, Chris thrown to the GSU21. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on PRINGLE, Gavin enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the GSU21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the GAST 17

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the GAST 17

3rd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.88

Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the GAST 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the GAST 7

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the GAST 6

3rd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Gunnar Watson run for no gain to the GAST 6

4th & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +3.13

Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GAST 27

Situational Analysis

Troy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
40%
25 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
29%
7 plays
67%
9 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
0%
1 play
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Georgia State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
36%
22 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
27%
11 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
67%
3 plays