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← Back to GamesSep 16, 2023Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Arkansas State by 8.4

Home Win Probability

Arkansas State 60%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Arkansas State -24

Edge: Stony Brook +24 (15.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 16, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Stony Brook
00077
Arkansas StateArkansas State
1707731

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-010-017-024-031-7
Arkansas StateStony Brook

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ASSBASSBASSBASSBASSBASSBSBASSBASSBASSBASSBASFG870ydPUNT35ydTD878ydPUNT36ydTD266ydPUNT2-2ydPUNT833ydDOWNS1163ydPUNT3-9ydMISS1242ydPUNT828ydEND29ydMISS945ydPUNT3-1ydMISS836ydTD1177ydPUNT31ydTD882ydTD785ydPUNT419ydPUNT521ydEND732yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Stony Brook and Arkansas State
StatisticStony BrookArkansas State
Passing21-3311-23
Pass Yards221140
Rush Yards90345
Total Yards311485
Turnovers00
3rd Down5-147-14
Penalties8-454-40
Possession32:0028:00

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Stony Brook
passing
Casey Case
21/33, 221 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Shakhi Carson
12 CAR, 45 YDS
receiving
Anthony Johnson
9 REC, 127 YDS
defense
Arkansas State
passing
Jaylen Raynor
4/6, 78 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Ja'Quez Cross
15 CAR, 164 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jeff Foreman
1 REC, 42 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+44 ydsPPA +3.24

Ja'Quez Cross run for 44 yds to the STBK 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the STBK 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jaxon Dailey pass incomplete

3rd & 7Penalty+5 yds

Stony Brook Penalty, Offsides (Aidan Kaler) to the STBK 23

3rd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.41

Zak Wallace run for 10 yds to the STBK 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Zak Wallace run for 8 yds to the STBK 5

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Zak Wallace run for no gain to the STBK 5

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jaxon Dailey pass incomplete

4th & 2Field Goal Good+22 yds

Dominic Zvada 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ross Tallarico run for no gain to the STBK 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Casey Case pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Ross Tallarico run for 5 yds to the STBK 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Clayton Taylor punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.18

Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 25 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.85

Ja'Quez Cross run for 12 yds to the STBK 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.40

Jaxon Dailey run for 10 yds to the STBK 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the STBK 31

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.83

Ja'Quez Cross run for 13 yds to the STBK 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jaxon Dailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.00

Zak Wallace run for 17 yds to the STBK 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Zak Wallace run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+51 yds

Noah Grant kickoff for 51 yds , return for no gain to the STBK 17 , return for no gain to the STBK 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Casey Case pass complete to Jayce Freeman for 2 yds to the STBK 19

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Stony Brook Penalty, False Start (Jayce Freeman) to the STBK 14

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Casey Case pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.12

Casey Case pass complete to Cole Bunicci for 9 yds to the STBK 23

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Clayton Taylor punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 34

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Jaxon Dailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+66 ydsPPA +6.32

Ja'Quez Cross run for 66 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.32

Jayden Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the STBK 33

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Casey Case pass incomplete

3rd & 12Penalty0 yds

CASE, Casey pass to the right complete for 12 yards to TURNER, Jadon caught at the SBU45 and advanced to the SBU45 (THOMAS, Trevian). PENALTY SBU Illegal Touch-Pass on TURNER, Jadon enforced 0 yards from the SBU33 to the SBU33, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Clayton Taylor punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 21

2nd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.61

Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 14 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Tennel Bryant for 6 yds to the ARST 44

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.68

Ja'Quez Cross run for 9 yds to the STBK 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Jaxon Dailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.06

Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Tennel Bryant for no gain to the STBK 47

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Jaxon Dailey pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Casey Case pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Shakhi Carson run for 4 yds to the STBK 12

3rd & 6Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.58

Casey Case run for 19 yds to the STBK 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.36

Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 9 yds to the STBK 40

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Shakhi Carson run for 1 yd to the STBK 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.26

Casey Case sacked by Dennard Flowers for a loss of 8 yards to the STBK 33

2nd & 18Penalty+15 yds

Arkansas State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on WILLEKES, Charles enforced (Charles Willekes) to the ARST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.56

Casey Case sacked by Thurman Geathers for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 41

2nd & 14Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Shakhi Carson run for 6 yds to the ARST 35

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Casey Case pass complete to Cole Bunicci for 6 yds to the ARST 29

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.93

Casey Case pass incomplete

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.34

Jaxon Dailey sacked by Aidan Kaler for a loss of 6 yards to the ARST 23

2nd & 16Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.23

Jaxon Dailey sacked by Dyshier Clary and Anthony Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 19

3rd & 20Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.03

Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 20

4th & 19Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 2 yds to the STBK 42

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.75

Casey Case pass complete to Jayden Cook for 10 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Brandon Boria run for 1 yd to the ARST 47

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.29

Shakhi Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 48

3rd & 10Penalty+5 yds

CASE, Casey pass deep to the right incomplete intended for COOK, Jayden broken up by HODGES, Justin at the ASU27. PENALTY ASU Offsides on LEWIS, Kadan enforced 5 yards from the ASU48 to the ASU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.71

Casey Case pass complete to Jayce Freeman for 8 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Casey Case pass complete to Jayden Cook for 4 yds to the ARST 31

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Casey Case run for 3 yds to the ARST 28

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.63

Shakhi Carson run for 6 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Casey Case pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 4 yds to the ARST 18

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Casey Case pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+35 yds

Spencer Biscoe 35 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Zak Wallace run for 8 yds to the ARST 28

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 29

3rd & 1Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.24

Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Jaxon Dailey run for 7 yds to the ARST 43

2nd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.67

Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Corey Rucker for 8 yds to the STBK 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Jaxon Dailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Corey Rucker for 2 yds to the STBK 47

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Jaxon Dailey pass incomplete

4th & 8Penalty-5 yds

Arkansas State Penalty, False Start (Jeff Foreman) to the ARST 48

4th & 13Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 52 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Shakhi Carson run for 6 yds to the STBK 26

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 3 yds to the STBK 29

0th & 4End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.15

Ross Tallarico run for 27 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.37

Shakhi Carson run for 12 yds to the ARST 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.71

Shakhi Carson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 28

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Casey Case pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.61

Casey Case pass complete to Rahmon Hart Jr. for 12 yds to the ARST 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.48

run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 18

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Casey Case pass incomplete

3rd & 12Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.12

Casey Case sacked by Nate Martey and Keyron Crawford for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 20

4th & 14Field Goal Missed+37 yds

Spencer Biscoe 37 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 18

2nd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.16

Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 19

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Jaxon Dailey pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 40 yds, downed at the STBK 41

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Casey Case pass complete to Jayden Cook for 7 yds to the STBK 48

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.03

Shakhi Carson run for 1 yd to the STBK 49

3rd & 2Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.94

Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 14 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.37

Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 13 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Ross Tallarico run for 2 yds to the ARST 22

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Casey Case pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Casey Case pass complete to Jayden Cook for 4 yds to the ARST 18

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

Stony Brook Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jayden Cook) to the ARST 23

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+40 yds

Spencer Biscoe 40 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Jaxon Dailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.44

Zak Wallace run for 8 yds to the ARST 31

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.26

Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 39

2nd & 7Rush+32 ydsPPA +2.77

Jaylen Raynor run for 32 yds to the STBK 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.22

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 13 yds to the STBK 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the STBK 16

3rd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.30

Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the STBK 8

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.09

Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the STBK 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Shakhi Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the STBK 34

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Casey Case pass incomplete

3rd & 11Penalty-5 yds

Stony Brook Penalty, False Start (Noah Rodriguez) to the STBK 29

3rd & 16Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.10

Casey Case pass complete to Ross Tallarico for 7 yds to the STBK 36

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Clayton Taylor punt for 46 yds, downed at the ARST 18

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the ARST 18

2nd & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +3.81

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 42 yds to the STBK 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.49

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 15 yds to the STBK 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Ja'Quez Cross run for 9 yds to the STBK 16

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the STBK 16

3rd & 1Penalty+5 yds

CROSS, Ja'Quez rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the SBU15 (FERRELLI, Anthony). PENALTY SBU Offsides on LEGAGNEUR, Clarens enforced 5 yards from the SBU16 to the SBU11 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the STBK 8

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.90

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 8 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+68 ydsPPA +4.04

Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 68 yds to the ARST 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.50

run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 19

2nd & 12Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.45

Shakhi Carson run for 10 yds to the ARST 9

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Ross Tallarico run for no gain to the ARST 9

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.95

Shakhi Carson run for 3 yds to the ARST 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Casey Case pass incomplete

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Stony Brook Penalty, False Start (Charles Allen III) to the ARST 11

2nd & 11Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.86

Casey Case pass complete to Rahmon Hart Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Enda Kirby KICK)

1st & 10Rush+28 ydsPPA +1.75

Cedric Hawkins run for 28 yds to the STBK 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Cedric Hawkins run for 3 yds to the STBK 27

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the STBK 25

3rd & 5Rush-14 ydsPPA -3.35

Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the STBK 24 Arkansas State Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Unnecessary Roughness on THOMAS, Makilan enforced (-15 Yards) to the STBK 39

4th & 19Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 39 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Brandon Boria run for 4 yds to the STBK 24

2nd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.52

Casey Case pass complete to Cal Redman for 14 yds to the STBK 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Ross Tallarico run for 8 yds to the STBK 46

2nd & 2Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.61

Casey Case pass complete to Anthony Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the STBK 45

3rd & 3Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.36

Casey Case sacked by Blayne Toll for a loss of 4 yards to the STBK 41

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Clayton Taylor punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 35

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Cedric Hawkins run for 3 yds to the ARST 38

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Cedric Hawkins run for 1 yd to the ARST 39

3rd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.09

Cedric Hawkins run for 6 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.86

Cedric Hawkins run for 11 yds to the STBK 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Mike Sharpe II run for 5 yds to the STBK 39

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the STBK 36

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.74

Mike Sharpe II run for 3 yds to the STBK 33 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Stony Brook

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
33%
24 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
17%
6 plays
38%
8 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

Arkansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
43%
30 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
53%
15 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play