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← Back to GamesNov 25, 2023Week 13
PittsburghPittsburgh
19
-Final
30
DukeDuke
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Duke by 16.5

Home Win Probability

Duke 85%

Market (Bovada)

Duke -4.5

Edge: Duke -4.5 (12.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 25, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
PittsburghPittsburgh
373619
DukeDuke
37101030

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-33-1010-1013-1020-1327-1330-19
DukePittsburgh

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20PITDUKPITDUKPITDUKPITDUKPITDUKDUKPITDUKPITDUKPITDUKPITDUKPITDUKPUNT39ydFG830ydFG1360ydPUNT32ydTD1593ydPUNT620ydPUNT36ydTD625ydPUNT3-9ydTO30ydFG1267ydFG1046ydTD775ydPUNT35ydTD1059ydTO1057ydPUNT34ydTD563ydFG745ydDOWNS42ydEND56yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Pittsburgh and Duke
StatisticPittsburghDuke
Passing25-3520-37
Pass Yards265248
Rush Yards4369
Total Yards308317
Turnovers11
3rd Down5-138-18
Penalties9-938-79
Possession29:0530:55

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Pittsburgh
passing
Nate Yarnell
25/35, 265 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Rodney Hammond Jr.
12 CAR, 21 YDS
receiving
Jerrod Means
6 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Duke
passing
Grayson Loftis
20/37, 248 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jordan Waters
9 CAR, 31 YDS
receiving
Jordan Moore
8 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Nate Yarnell pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Nate Yarnell run for 6 yds to the PITT 22

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 25

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Caleb Junko punt for 34 yds, downed at the DUKE 41

4th & 1Penalty0 yds

(13:29) JUNKO, Caleb punt 11 yards to the PIT36, CALHOUN, Jalon returned -3 yards to the PIT39 (CARTER, Daniel), clock 13:20. PENALTY DU Holding on MERGOTT, Luke declined DU Holding on ROBINSON, Kimari PIT Targeting on CARTER, Daniel , Offsetting penalties [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 6 yds to the DUKE 47

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.46

Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.90

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 15 yds to the PITT 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the PITT 33

3rd & 8Penalty-10 yds

(09:40) LOFTIS, Grayson pass to the right incomplete intended for MOORE, Jordan broken up by DEVONSHIRE, M.J. at the PIT25. PENALTY DU Holding on BARTON, Graham enforced 10 yards from the PIT33 to the PIT43 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 18Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.89

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 14 yds to the PITT 29

4th & 4Field Goal Good+47 yds

Todd Pelino 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 26

2nd & 7Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.82

Konata Mumpfield run for 15 yds to the PITT 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the PITT 42

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the PITT 47

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.89

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Karter Johnson for 6 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.56

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the DUKE 34

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.05

Rodney Hammond Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 35

3rd & 8Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.72

C'Bo Flemister run for 15 yds to the DUKE 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the DUKE 19

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Nate Yarnell run for 2 yds to the DUKE 17

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Nate Yarnell pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+35 yds

Ben Sauls 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 59 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for no gain to the PITT 14. PENALTY PIT Holding on Ryland Gandy enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards after the change of possession from the end of the play at the PIT14 to the PIT7, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred.

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.76

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 9 yds to the PITT 16

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.60

Rodney Hammond Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 18

2nd & 11Penalty+15 yds

Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (DeWayne Carter) to the PITT 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Nate Yarnell run for 2 yds to the PITT 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 7 yds to the PITT 45

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.02

Nate Yarnell run for 1 yd to the PITT 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the DUKE 48

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.96

Nate Yarnell run for 1 yd to the DUKE 47

3rd & 3Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.90

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 15 yds to the DUKE 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 2 yds to the DUKE 30

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.11

C'Bo Flemister run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 32

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.67

Nate Yarnell pass complete to C'Bo Flemister for 11 yds to the DUKE 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39

C'Bo Flemister run for no gain to the DUKE 21

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +3.02

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Karter Johnson for 21 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the DUKE 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the DUKE 34

3rd & 1Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.25

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 5 yds to the DUKE 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 7 yds to the DUKE 46

2nd & 3Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.53

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 45

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 51 yds, downed at the PITT 4

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the PITT 8

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.31

Nate Yarnell run for a loss of 2 yards to the PITT 6

3rd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Karter Johnson for 4 yds to the PITT 10

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Caleb Junko punt for 15 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the PITT 22

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Jaylen Coleman run for 6 yds to the PITT 16

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.11

Grayson Loftis run for 2 yds to the PITT 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.38

Jordan Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 15

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the PITT 10

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.89

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 10 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 3 yds to the PITT 15

2nd & 7Sack-14 ydsPPA -0.50

Nate Yarnell sacked by R.J. Oben for a loss of 14 yards to the PITT 1

3rd & 21Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.01

Nate Yarnell run for 2 yds to the PITT 3

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Caleb Junko punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return+28 ydsPPA -1.46

Grayson Loftis pass intercepted M.J. Devonshire return for 28 yds to the DUKE 39

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the DUKE 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.72

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 31 yds to the PITT 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Duke Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PITT 48

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

2nd & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 6 yds to the PITT 42

3rd & 9Penalty+15 yds

Pittsburgh Penalty, Personal Foul (Samuel Okunlola) to the PITT 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

(12:15) LOFTIS, Grayson pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HAGANS, Sahmir broken up by MCMILLON, Donovan at the PIT4. PENALTY Before the snap, DU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the PIT23 to the PIT28. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 4 yds to the PITT 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

3rd & 11Penalty0 yds

(11:24) LOFTIS, Grayson pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CALHOUN, Jalon thrown to the PIT0. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on WOODS, A.J. enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the PIT9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the PITT 8

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+25 yds

Todd Pelino 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Rodney Hammond Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the PITT 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.12

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 16 yds to the PITT 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

Pittsburgh Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Nate Yarnell) to the PITT 32

2nd & 18Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.41

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 22 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.71

Rodney Hammond Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 49

2nd & 13Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.28

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 14 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Nate Yarnell pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Nate Yarnell run for 6 yds to the DUKE 29

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Nate Yarnell pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+47 yds

Ben Sauls 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 8 yds to the DUKE 33

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the DUKE 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Grayson Loftis run for 2 yds to the DUKE 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 3 yds to the DUKE 39

3rd & 7Pass Reception+46 ydsPPA +3.90

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Waters for 46 yds to the PITT 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 15 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.71

Nate Yarnell sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the PITT 2

2nd & 22Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.01

Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 5

3rd & 19Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.13

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Israel Polk for 14 yds to the PITT 19

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Caleb Junko punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Duke Penalty, False Start (Jacob Monk) to the DUKE 36

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

2nd & 15Penalty+6 yds

(01:36) LOFTIS, Grayson pass to the right incomplete intended for HAGANS, Sahmir thrown to the DU42. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Marquis enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the DU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 41

2nd & 11Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +3.18

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 32 yds to the PITT 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.17

Jordan Waters run for 11 yds to the PITT 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 16 yds Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jalon Calhoun) to the PITT 22

1st & 16Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the PITT 22

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

3rd & 16Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.04

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 16 yds to the PITT 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the PITT 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Karter Johnson for 6 yds to the PITT 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 8 yds to the PITT 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Nate Yarnell pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.09

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 29 yds to the DUKE 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Nate Yarnell run for 2 yds to the DUKE 30

2nd & 8Penalty0 yds

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 3 yds to the DUKE 27. PENALTY DU Roughing the Passer on Aeneas Peebles enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the end of the play at the DU27 to the DU14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Nate Yarnell pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Pittsburgh Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Bub Means) to the DUKE 18

2nd & 15Penalty-15 yds

Pittsburgh Penalty, Personal Foul (C'Bo Flemister) to the DUKE 27

2nd & 24Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 9 yds to the DUKE 18

3rd & 15Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.28

Nate Yarnell pass intercepted, touchback. Jeremiah Lewis return for no gain

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the DUKE 21

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the DUKE 24

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.21

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Karter Johnson for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 2 yds to the DUKE 48

2nd & 8Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.68

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 19 yds to the DUKE 29 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Nick Morris Jr.) to the DUKE 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Nate Yarnell pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.86

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Bub Means for 14 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty0 yds

Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined

3rd & 11Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +4.03

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 22 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST down Pittsburgh Penalty, Roughing the Passer on OKUNLOLA, Samuel enforced (Samuel Okunlola) to the PITT 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the PITT 37

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the PITT 32

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the PITT 30

4th & 1Field Goal Good+48 yds

Todd Pelino 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Nate Yarnell pass complete to Karter Johnson for 5 yds to the PITT 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Nate Yarnell pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Nate Yarnell pass incomplete

4th & 5Sack-3 ydsPPA +0.11

Nate Yarnell sacked by Vincent Anthony Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the PITT 27

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the PITT 23

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.22

Jaylen Coleman run for 8 yds to the PITT 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

(00:58) [NH] Kneel down by DU at PIT17 (team loss of 2).

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

(00:55) Kneel down by DU at PIT19 (team loss of 2).

3rd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.82

(00:13) Kneel down by DU at PIT21 (team loss of 2).

Situational Analysis

Pittsburgh

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
23%
26 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
25%
4 plays
69%
13 plays
80%
5 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Duke

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
29%
21 plays
0%
4 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
30%
10 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play