Skip to main content
← Back to GamesNov 18, 2023Week 12
LouisvilleLouisville
38
-Final
31
MiamiMiami
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Louisville by 5.9

Home Win Probability

Miami 37%

Market (Bovada)

Miami -1

Edge: Louisville +1 (6.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 18, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
LouisvilleLouisville
14631538
MiamiMiami
1477331

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-77-714-1421-1421-2328-2328-3131-3131-38
MiamiLouisville

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MIALOUMIALOUMIALOUMIALOUMIALOUMIALOUMIALOUMIALOUMIALOUMIALOUMIALOUMIALOUMIAPUNT37ydTD969ydTD575ydTO2-5ydTD450ydTD545ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT38ydTD1182ydMISS1268ydPUNT39ydTD1177ydEND10ydFG846ydPUNT524ydPUNT31ydTD355ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT623ydTD1189ydFG1142ydTD375ydDOWNS875ydPUNT323ydEND370yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Louisville and Miami
StatisticLouisvilleMiami
Passing24-3724-39
Pass Yards308327
Rush Yards162159
Total Yards470486
Turnovers10
3rd Down5-126-14
Penalties4-505-50
Possession30:2129:39

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Louisville
passing
Jack Plummer
24/37, 308 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Isaac Guerendo
15 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Kevin Coleman Jr.
2 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Devin Neal
0.5 TFL
Miami
passing
Tyler Van Dyke
24/39, 327 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Mark Fletcher Jr.
17 CAR, 126 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Xavier Restrepo
8 REC, 193 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Tyler Van Dyke run for 7 yds to the MIA 30

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.93

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 30

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

run for no gain to the MIA 30

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Dylan Joyce punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 34

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.41

Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 8 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.37

Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 18 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 7 yds to the MIA 33

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the MIA 32

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

4th & 2Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.90

Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 23 yds to the MIA 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the MIA 2

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 2 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.98

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 11 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +2.51

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 43 yds to the LOU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 21 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

(06:06) PLUMMER, Jack pass short to the right complete for 5 yards to THRASH, Jamari caught at the LOU30 and advanced to the LOU30, out of bounds, clock 05:58. PENALTY LOU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HUDSON, Bryan enforced 5 yards from the LOU25 to the LOU20 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for no gain to the LOU 20

2nd & 15Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA +0.14

Jack Plummer pass intercepted Kamren Kinchens return for no gain to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +1.22

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 30 yds to the LOU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the LOU 15

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.95

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 15 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +0.80

Isaac Guerendo run for 21 yds to the MIA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Jack Plummer run for 6 yds to the MIA 18

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the MIA 15

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.11

Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the MIA 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Isaac Guerendo run for 12 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Donald Chaney Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Dylan Joyce punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

PLUMMER, Jack pass to the right incomplete intended for THOMPSON, Jadon thrown to the LOU42. PENALTY MIA Offsides on FLAGG JR., Corey enforced 5 yards from the LOU27 to the LOU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.52

Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 35

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.19

Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the LOU 35

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 47 yds, downed at the MIA 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 8 yds to the MIA 26

2nd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 6 yds to the MIA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 1 yd to the MIA 33

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 4 yds to the MIA 37

3rd & 5Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.85

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 17 yds to the LOU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 3 yds to the LOU 43

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the LOU 39

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the LOU 37

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.72

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the LOU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +3.60

Brashard Smith run for 34 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.63

Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 11 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.53

Isaac Guerendo run for 17 yds to the MIA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the MIA 46

3rd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.64

Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 14 yds to the MIA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the MIA 29

2nd & 7Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.86

Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 22 yds to the MIA 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+24 yds

Brock Travelstead 24 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Donald Chaney Jr. run for 5 yds to the MIA 25

2nd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Donald Chaney Jr. for 3 yds to the MIA 28

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 29

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Dylan Joyce punt for 48 yds, downed at the LOU 23

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the LOU 28

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 4 yds to the LOU 32

3rd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.08

Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 4 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.38

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 15 yds to the MIA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 7 yds to the MIA 42

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 4 yds to the MIA 32

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.24

Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 12 yds to the MIA 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Jawhar Jordan run for 9 yds to the MIA 1

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Jack Plummer pass complete to Trevonte Sylvester for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Travelstead PAT BLOCKED)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 45 yds , Ray Ray Joseph return for no gain to the MIA 47

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the LOU 33

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.82

Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 10 yds to the LOU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Jack Plummer run for 1 yd to the LOU 44

2nd & 9Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.58

Isaac Guerendo run for 26 yds to the MIA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.01

Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 33

2nd & 13Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.91

Jack Plummer pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 11 yds to the MIA 22

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

4th & 2Field Goal Good+40 yds

Nick Lopez 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 3 yds to the MIA 27

3rd & 8Penalty+15 yds

(10:11) VAN DYKE, Tyler sacked for a loss of 10 yards at the MIA17 (REIGER, Mason), clock 10:07. PENALTY LOU Face mask on REIGER, Mason enforced 15 yards from the MIA27 to the MIA42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 49

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.29

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Dylan Joyce punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 14

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the LOU 15

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.25

Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 14

3rd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.07

Jack Plummer run for 1 yd to the LOU 15

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+54 ydsPPA +3.34

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 54 yds to the LOU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the LOU 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 24

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Brashard Smith at the MIA 25

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the MIA 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.26

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 25 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

Donald Chaney Jr. run for no gain to the LOU 45

2nd & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.48

Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Mason Reiger for a loss of 10 yards to the MIA 45

3rd & 20Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.30

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 8 yds to the LOU 47

4th & 12Penalty-5 yds

Miami Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MIA 48

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Dylan Joyce punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 11

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.85

Maurice Turner run for 9 yds to the LOU 20

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.17

Maurice Turner run for 5 yds to the LOU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jack Plummer run for no gain to the LOU 25

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Jimmy Calloway run for 6 yds to the LOU 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.05

Jack Plummer pass complete to Josh Lifson for 11 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Maurice Turner run for no gain to the LOU 42

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.70

Jack Plummer pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 22 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.07

Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for 13 yds to the MIA 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.78

Jack Plummer pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 18 yds to the MIA 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Evan Conley run for 5 yds for a TD (Jack Plummer pass to Jamari Thrash for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 8 yds to the MIA 33

2nd & 2Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.40

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 18 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.33

Donald Chaney Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.94

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 11 yds to the LOU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.02

Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 40

2nd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.39

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 12 yds to the LOU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 29

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

3rd & 11Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.79

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 33

4th & 15Field Goal Good+51 yds

Andres Borregales 51 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 13 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the LOU 42

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+58 ydsPPA +5.12

Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 58 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+48 ydsPPA +3.46

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 48 yds to the LOU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 4 yds to the LOU 26

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.86

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 7 yds to the LOU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

(02:19) VAN DYKE, Tyler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GEORGE, Jacolby thrown to the LOU0, clock 02:15. PENALTY LOU Pass Interference on EDWARDS, Derrick enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the LOU4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the LOU 3

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.08

Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Miami Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jacolby George) to the LOU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the LOU 21

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the LOU 23

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Jack Plummer run for 3 yds to the LOU 26

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 34 yds, downed at the MIA 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 10 yds to the MIA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.40

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +1.96

Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 45 yds to the LOU 5 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
47%
30 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
62%
13 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

Miami

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
52%
27 plays
2nd
50%
6 plays
0%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
0%
5 plays
100%
4 plays
100%
1 play
50%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays