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← Back to GamesOct 28, 2023Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Louisville by 2.1

Home Win Probability

Louisville 47%

Market (Bovada)

Louisville -5

Edge: Duke +5 (3.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 28, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
DukeDuke
00000
LouisvilleLouisville
1436023

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-017-020-023-0
LouisvilleDuke

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20DUKLOUDUKLOUDUKLOUDUKLOUDUKLOULOUDUKLOUDUKLOUDUKLOUDUKLOUDUKLOUPUNT63ydTD1072ydDOWNS624ydTD649ydPUNT32ydPUNT832ydPUNT844ydFG959ydPUNT34ydEND1-1ydFG1472ydTO5-2ydFG48ydPUNT57ydPUNT532ydPUNT39ydPUNT3-8ydPUNT529ydPUNT35ydDOWNS510ydEND411yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Duke and Louisville
StatisticDukeLouisville
Passing12-2811-16
Pass Yards151117
Rush Yards51234
Total Yards202351
Turnovers10
3rd Down2-122-10
Penalties10-824-45
Possession23:0936:51

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Duke
passing
Riley Leonard
9/23, 121 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Jordan Waters
5 CAR, 23 YDS
receiving
Jordan Moore
6 REC, 92 YDS
defense
Louisville
passing
Jack Plummer
11/16, 117 YDS
rushing
Jawhar Jordan
21 CAR, 163 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jamari Thrash
7 REC, 73 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun

3rd & 8Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.15

Riley Leonard run for 12 yds to the DUKE 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.13

Riley Leonard sacked by Jared Dawson for a loss of 8 yards to the DUKE 31

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans

3rd & 18Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.14

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 28

4th & 21Punt+7 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 51 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for 7 yds to the LOU 28

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Jawhar Jordan run for 9 yds to the LOU 37

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.03

Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 6 yds to the LOU 48

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 8 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.71

Jawhar Jordan run for 19 yds to the DUKE 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Kevin Coleman run for 1 yd to the DUKE 24

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.27

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 7 yds to the DUKE 17

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the DUKE 16

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.62

Jack Plummer run for 2 yds to the DUKE 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.55

Jawhar Jordan run for 14 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 9 yds to the DUKE 34

2nd & 1Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.64

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 45

2nd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.06

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 9 yds to the LOU 46

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the LOU 45

4th & 1Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.57

Riley Leonard sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 6 yards to the DUKE 49

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the DUKE 42

2nd & 3Rush-8 ydsPPA -2.89

Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the DUKE 40 Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Gonzalez) to the 50 yard line

2nd & 11Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.25

Jack Plummer pass complete to Josh Lifson for 19 yds to the DUKE 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the DUKE 31

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.47

Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 8 yds to the DUKE 23

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.95

Jawhar Jordan run for 23 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK)

3rd & 2Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 65 yds, Terry Moore return for 21 yds to the DUKE 21 Louisville Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Maurice Turner) to the DUKE 36

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.70

Riley Leonard sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 31

2nd & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.25

Riley Leonard run for 7 yds to the DUKE 38

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 62 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Maurice Turner run for no gain to the LOU 20

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.34

Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for 11 yds to the LOU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.68

Maurice Turner run for 7 yds to the LOU 38

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.17

Maurice Turner run for no gain to the LOU 38

3rd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.09

Isaac Guerendo run for 10 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the DUKE 48

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari Thrash

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris Bell

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 8

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the DUKE 12

2nd & 6Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.75

Riley Leonard run for 12 yds to the DUKE 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the DUKE 29

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the DUKE 32

3rd & 2Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.59

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 19 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the LOU 43

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

Duke Penalty, False Start (Brian Parker II) to the LOU 48

2nd & 9Penalty-15 yds

Leonard, Riley rush for 3 yards to the LOUISVILLE45, PENALTY DUKE personal foul (Pickett, Justin) 15 yards to the DUKE37, NO PLAY.

2nd & 24Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun

3rd & 24Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.73

Jordan Waters run for 15 yds to the LOU 48

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 11

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.49

Jawhar Jordan run for 11 yds to the LOU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the LOU 23

2nd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.45

Jawhar Jordan run for 11 yds to the LOU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 13 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.19

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 20 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the DUKE 30

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jawhar Jordan

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris Bell

4th & 7Field Goal Good+47 yds

Brock Travelstead 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 4 yds to the DUKE 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun

4th & 6Punt-3 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 49 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 19

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.60

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 18

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari Thrash

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.54

Jawhar Jordan run for 10 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the LOU 40

2nd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.21

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 9 yds to the LOU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.86

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 8 yds to the DUKE 43

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.01

Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the DUKE 33

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.43

Jack Plummer run for 8 yds to the DUKE 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the DUKE 18

2nd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.17

Jawhar Jordan run for 11 yds to the DUKE 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.60

Maurice Turner run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 10

2nd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.17

Jack Plummer sacked by Ryan Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the DUKE 18

3rd & 0Rush+15 yds

Maurice Turner run for 15 yds to the DUKE 3

4th & 3Field Goal Good+20 yds

Brock Travelstead 20 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Duke Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the DUKE 20

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the DUKE 21

2nd & 14Penalty+10 yds

Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Hagans, Sahmir, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Brownlee Jr., Jarvis) 10 yards to the DUKE31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.

1st & 10Rush-8 ydsPPA -1.56

Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the DUKE 33 Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Scott Elliott) to the DUKE 23

1st & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

3rd & 18Pass Interception Return+4 ydsPPA +0.30

Riley Leonard pass intercepted Gilbert Frierson return for 4 yds to the DUKE 15

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Jordan, Jawhar rush for 4 yards to the DUKE11, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Lumia, Vincent) 10 yards to the DUKE25, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Ahmari Huggins-Bruce run for 5 yds to the DUKE 20

2nd & 15Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.36

Jawhar Jordan run for 9 yds to the DUKE 11

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the DUKE 7

4th & 2Field Goal Good+24 yds

Brock Travelstead 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.73

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 12 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jordan Waters run for no gain to the DUKE 37

3rd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -0.51

Riley Leonard sacked by Jermayne Lole for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 32 Riley Leonard fumbled, forced by Jermayne Lole, recovered by DUKE Riley Leonard , return for 0 yards

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 8 yds to the LOU 28

2nd & 2Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.22

Isaac Guerendo run for 16 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the LOU 47

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Jack Plummer run for no gain to the LOU 47

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jack Plummer run for 5 yds to the DUKE 48

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DUKE 7

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the DUKE 8

2nd & 9Penalty-4 yds

Duke Penalty, False Start (Scott Elliott) to the DUKE 4

2nd & 13Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.43

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the DUKE 16

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the DUKE 16

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOU 49

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -2.00

Jack Plummer run for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 45 Jack Plummer fumbled, recovered by LOUISVILLE Plummer, Jack at LOUISVILLE45.

2nd & 14Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.15

Jack Plummer sacked by Terry Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the LOU 40

3rd & 19Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.16

Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the LOU 41

4th & 18Punt+6 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 48 yds , Jalon Calhoun returns for 6 yds to the DUKE 17

1st & 10Penalty-8 yds

Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Moore, Jordan, PENALTY DUKE holding (Hornibrook, Jake) 8 yards to the DUKE9, NO PLAY.

1st & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun

2nd & 18Pass Reception+47 ydsPPA +3.91

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 47 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Duke Penalty, False Start (Scott Elliott) to the LOU 49

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the LOU 44

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun

3rd & 10Penalty-10 yds

Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Robertson, Jontavis, PENALTY DUKE holding (Parker II, Brian) 10 yards to the DUKE46, NO PLAY.

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 52 yds, downed at the LOU 2

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Maurice Turner run for 2 yds to the LOU 4

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.10

Maurice Turner run for 2 yds to the LOU 6

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.08

Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the LOU 7

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Brock Travelstead punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the LOU 43

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Duke Penalty, False Start (Jontavis Robertson) to the LOU 48

1st & 15Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.45

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 15 yds to the LOU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 3 yds to the LOU 30

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion-15 ydsPPA -3.53

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jeremiah Hasley Duke Penalty, Personal Foul (Maurice McIntyre) to the LOU 45

3rd & 22Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.21

Grayson Loftis pass complete to Jordan Moore for 12 yds to the LOU 33

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.59

Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Isaac Guerendo run for 8 yds to the LOU 41

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.03

Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the LOU 45

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.11

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 44

Situational Analysis

Duke

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
21%
14 plays
40%
5 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
17%
6 plays
57%
7 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
33%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
28 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
57%
7 plays
75%
4 plays
50%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play