Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 15, 2023Week 7
NC StateNC State
3
-Final
24
DukeDuke
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Duke by 10.8

Home Win Probability

Duke 78%

Market (Bovada)

Duke -3.5

Edge: Duke -3.5 (7.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 15, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NC StateNC State
30003
DukeDuke
7107024

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-37-310-317-324-3
DukeNC State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20DUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKNSDUKTO30ydFG40ydPUNT39ydPUNT631ydTD290ydPUNT631ydFG861ydTO20ydTD18ydPUNT629ydPUNT841ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT411ydEND321ydPUNT925ydTD183ydPUNT31ydPUNT34ydDOWNS724ydPUNT3-5ydDOWNS1047ydPUNT618ydDOWNS1250ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing NC State and Duke
StatisticNC StateDuke
Passing24-404-12
Pass Yards193107
Rush Yards112194
Total Yards305301
Turnovers11
3rd Down4-151-9
Penalties11-876-33
Possession36:5623:04

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

NC State
passing
MJ Morris
24/40, 193 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
MJ Morris
14 CAR, 38 YDS
receiving
Kevin Concepcion
6 REC, 63 YDS
defense
Duke
passing
Henry Belin IV
4/12, 107 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jordan Waters
13 CAR, 123 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jalon Calhoun
1 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jordan Waters run for no gain to the DUKE 25

3rd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA +0.13

Henry Belin IV pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.98

MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 39

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Ii Demarcus Jones run for 1 yd to the DUKE 38

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

MJ Morris pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+57 yds

Brayden Narveson 57 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jordan Waters run for no gain to the DUKE 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jordan Moore for 9 yds to the DUKE 34

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jordan Waters run for no gain to the DUKE 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSU 19

1st & 15Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Michael Allen run for 6 yds to the NCSU 25

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.47

MJ Morris pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 10 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.40

Kevin Concepcion run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSU 45

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

MJ Morris run for 1 yd to the NCSU 46

2nd & 14Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.96

MJ Morris run for 9 yds to the DUKE 45

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

MJ Morris pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.19

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 21 yds to the DUKE 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+69 ydsPPA +5.61

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 69 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

MJ Morris pass complete to Julian Gray for 8 yds to the NCSU 33

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.83

Kevin Concepcion run for 21 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 49

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

MJ Morris run for 2 yds to the DUKE 47

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

MJ Morris pass incomplete

3rd & 13Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.65

MJ Morris run for 8 yds to the DUKE 39

4th & 5Penalty-5 yds

NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 44

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 40 yds, downed at the DUKE 4

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.31

Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 3

2nd & 11Penalty0 yds

Duke Penalty, False Start (Yards) to the DUKE 2

2nd & 12Penalty+15 yds

(01:16) BELIN IV, Henry pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MOORE, Jordan thrown to the DU45; QB hurried by BROWN, Sean. PENALTY NSU Pass Interference on BATTLE, Shyheim enforced 15 yards to the DU17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.11

Jaquez Moore run for 16 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

(00:42) BELIN IV, Henry pass up the middle incomplete intended for MOORE, Jordan thrown to the DU43; QB hurried by JACKSON, Savion. PENALTY NSU Roughing the Passer on JACKSON, Savion enforced 15 yards from the DU33 to the DU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.14

Jordan Waters run for 20 yds to the NCSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Duke Penalty, False Start (Jordan Moore) to the NCSU 37

1st & 15Penalty-10 yds

(15:00) BELIN IV, Henry pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CALHOUN, Jalon thrown to the NSU0; QB hurried by SCOTT, Jaylon. PENALTY DU Holding on BARTON, Graham enforced 10 yards from the NSU37 to the NSU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the NCSU 44

2nd & 22Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Henry Belin IV run for 6 yds to the NCSU 38

3rd & 16Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the NCSU 35

4th & 13Field Goal Good+52 yds

Todd Pelino 52 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 5 yds to the NCSU 23

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

(12:10) MORRIS, MJ pass to the left complete for 4 yards to CONCEPCION, Kevin 'KC' caught at the NSU19 and advanced to the NSU27 (DILLON, Cam;MORRIS JR., Nick). PENALTY Before the snap, NSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the NSU23 to the NSU18. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.00

MJ Morris pass intercepted

1st & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 8 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the NCSU 30

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.13

MJ Morris run for 9 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.44

MJ Morris pass complete to Ii Demarcus Jones for 17 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

MJ Morris pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.48

Kevin Concepcion run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 46

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

MJ Morris pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 10

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

(08:41) MOORE, Jaquez rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the DU15 (WILSON, Payton). PENALTY DU Holding on ELLIOTT, Scott enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the DU10 to the DU5 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Penalty0 yds

Duke Penalty, Delay Of Game (Henry Belin IV) to the DUKE 3

1st & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

2nd & 17Rush+26 ydsPPA +1.56

Henry Belin IV run for 26 yds to the DUKE 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the DUKE 32

3rd & 7Penalty+10 yds

(06:29) BELIN IV, Henry pass to the left incomplete intended for MOORE, Jordan thrown to the DU30; QB hurried by SCOTT, Jaylon. PENALTY NSU Holding on BATTLE, Shyheim enforced 10 yards from the DU32 to the DU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.95

Jordan Waters run for 11 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.52

Jordan Waters run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 49

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Iii Delbert Mimms run for 2 yds to the NCSU 10

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

MJ Morris pass incomplete

3rd & 8Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.12

MJ Morris sacked by Aeneas Peebles for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 7

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 55 yds , returns for no gain

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.00

Jaquez Moore run for 11 yds to the DUKE 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.62

Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 36

2nd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the DUKE 37

3rd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 39

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 56 yds, downed at the NCSU 5

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

(01:25) ALLEN, Michael rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the NSU10 (MAUSI, Dorian;MOORE, Terry). PENALTY NSU Tripping on COOPER, Lyndon enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the NSU5 to the NSU3 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.12

Iii Delbert Mimms run for 2 yds to the NCSU 5

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Iii Delbert Mimms run for 5 yds to the NCSU 10

3rd & 5Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.17

MJ Morris run for 16 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST down

0th & 5End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Michael Allen run for no gain to the NCSU 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

MJ Morris pass complete to Julian Gray for 5 yds to the NCSU 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.98

MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 10 yds to the NCSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.32

Kevin Concepcion run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 39

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.29

MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 3 yds to the NCSU 42

3rd & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.01

MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 15 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.98

MJ Morris sacked by Dorian Mausi and Terry Moore for a loss of 10 yards to the NCSU 47

2nd & 20Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

MJ Morris pass incomplete

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 17

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+83 ydsPPA +6.54

Jordan Waters run for 83 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

MJ Morris pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.41

MJ Morris pass complete to Michael Allen for 1 yd to the NCSU 32

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

MJ Morris pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the DUKE 28

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Henry Belin IV run for 2 yds to the DUKE 30

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 6 yds to the NCSU 30

2nd & 4Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.64

MJ Morris pass complete to Jr. Terrell Timmons for 16 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(04:45) MORRIS, MJ pass deep to the left incomplete intended for TIMMONS, JR., Terrell thrown to the DU10. PENALTY NSU Holding on BELTON, Anthony enforced 10 yards from the NSU46 to the NSU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.01

MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 21 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

MJ Morris pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

MJ Morris pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.06

MJ Morris run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 44

4th & 11Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.59

MJ Morris sacked by Brandon Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSU 48

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.76

Henry Belin IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 49

2nd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

3rd & 12Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.85

Henry Belin IV sacked by Payton Wilson and Travali Price for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 47

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 7

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.60

MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 15 yds to the NCSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.84

Michael Allen run for 11 yds to the NCSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 6 yds to the NCSU 39

2nd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA -0.44

MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 3 yds Keyon Lesane fumbled, recovered by NCSU Keyon Lesane

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Iii Delbert Mimms run for no gain to the NCSU 42

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.34

Iii Delbert Mimms run for 5 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(11:38) QB Keeper MORRIS, MJ rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the DU49, out of bounds. PENALTY NSU Holding on MCMAHON, Dylan enforced 10 yards from the NSU47 to the NSU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.37

MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 2 yds to the NCSU 39

2nd & 18Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.49

MJ Morris run for 13 yds to the DUKE 48

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the DUKE 46

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.22

MJ Morris pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the NCSU 45

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.99

Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the NCSU 40

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the NCSU 39

3rd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the NCSU 36

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 36 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

MJ Morris run for 6 yds to the NCSU 26

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.58

MJ Morris pass complete to Jr. Terrell Timmons for 6 yds to the NCSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.69

MJ Morris pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 7 yds to the NCSU 39

2nd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.64

MJ Morris pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 7 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

MJ Morris pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

MJ Morris pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 5 yds to the DUKE 49

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.98

MJ Morris pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 7 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.57

MJ Morris pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 16 yds to the DUKE 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

MJ Morris pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

MJ Morris run for 6 yds to the DUKE 20

3rd & 4Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.55

MJ Morris sacked by R.J. Oben for a loss of 10 yards to the DUKE 30

4th & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.42

MJ Morris pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

(00:16) Kneel down by DU at DU28 (team loss of 2).

Situational Analysis

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
57%
23 plays
33%
6 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
50%
10 plays
33%
6 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
50%
6 plays
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays

Duke

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
40%
20 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
20%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
0%
4 plays
4th