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← Back to GamesSep 22, 2023Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

NC State by 11.8

Home Win Probability

Virginia 20%

Market (Bovada)

Virginia +8

Edge: NC State -8 (3.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 22, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NC StateNC State
0147324
VirginiaVirginia
076821

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-77-1410-1413-2121-21
VirginiaNC State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NSVIRNSVIRNSVIRNSVIRNSVIRNSVIRVIRNSVIRNSVIRNSVIRNSVIRNSVIRNSVIRNSPUNT728ydPUNT1251ydPUNT414ydDOWNS625ydTD749ydTD875ydPUNT36ydPUNT37ydTO933ydPUNT37ydTD867ydEND1-1ydPUNT819ydPUNT3-11ydFG560ydPUNT31ydFG538ydTD574ydPUNT54ydPUNT615ydTO21ydPUNT59ydTO454ydPUNT31ydTD1166ydFG533yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing NC State and Virginia
StatisticNC StateVirginia
Passing15-3118-30
Pass Yards180271
Rush Yards139113
Total Yards319384
Turnovers12
3rd Down6-145-14
Penalties7-627-69
Possession27:2632:34

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

NC State
passing
Brennan Armstrong
15/30, 180 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Brennan Armstrong
15 CAR, 64 YDS
receiving
Kevin Concepcion
6 REC, 116 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Virginia
passing
Anthony Colandrea
18/30, 271 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Anthony Colandrea
13 CAR, 43 YDS
receiving
Malik Washington
10 REC, 170 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Matt Ganyard kickoff for 41 yds , Kendrick Raphael return for no gain to the NCSU 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Trent Pennix for 7 yds to the NCSU 31

2nd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 2 yds to the NCSU 33

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.92

Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Brennan Armstrong run for 10 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the NCSU 49

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the UVA 48

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Anthony Colandrea run for 4 yds to the UVA 12

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the UVA 17

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.39

Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi Fields

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Kobe Pace run for 6 yds to the UVA 25

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.15

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to JR Wilson for 5 yds to the UVA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Mike Hollins run for 8 yds to the UVA 38

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.04

Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the UVA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.82

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 28 yds to the NCSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malik Washington

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY UVA False Start (Nnanna,Ugonna) 5 yards from NCST31 to NCST36. NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to JR Wilson

3rd & 15Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY UVA False Start (Stevens,Brian) 5 yards from NCST36 to NCST41. NO PLAY.

3rd & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.60

Anthony Colandrea run for no gain to the NCSU 41

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 9

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Armstrong,Brennan pass incomplete deep left to Lesane,Keyon PENALTY UVA Offside (Butler,Kameron) 5 yards from NCST09 to NCST14. NO PLAY.

1st & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.29

Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the NCSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell Timmons Jr.

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin Concepcion

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 57 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Mike Hollins run for no gain to the UVA 24

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.06

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 16 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Mike Hollins run for 6 yds to the UVA 46

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.74

Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the UVA 48

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the UVA 49

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Mike Hollins run for no gain to the UVA 49

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the UVA 47

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Delbert Mimms III run for 4 yds to the UVA 43

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.44

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 5 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.45

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 16 yds to the UVA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.12

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 10 yds to the UVA 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Bradley Rozner

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.83

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 12 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 27

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Kobe Pace run for 9 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +2.50

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 42 yds to the NCSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi Fields

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malik Washington

1st & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi Fields

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the NCSU 8

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.95

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Matt Ganyard kickoff for 58 yds , Julian Gray return for 14 yds to the NCSU 21

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the NCSU 27

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dacari Collins

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dacari Collins

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 67 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Kobe Pace run for no gain to the UVA 6

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.15

Kobe Pace run for 7 yds to the UVA 13

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.21

Mike Hollins run for no gain to the UVA 13

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 42

1st & 15Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.78

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 8 yds to the NCSU 45

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.58

Michael Allen run for 11 yds to the UVA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the UVA 37

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.01

Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.72

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 9 yds to the UVA 24

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.23

Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the UVA 22 for a 1ST down

2nd & 13Interception0 ydsPPA -3.64

Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the UVA 21

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Mike Hollins for 3 yds to the UVA 18

3rd & 14Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.24

Anthony Colandrea run for 11 yds to the UVA 29

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 33

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Kendrick Raphael run for 13 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.97

Brennan Armstrong sacked by Kam Butler for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 42

2nd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.63

Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the NCSU 42

3rd & 14Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +4.03

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 30 yds to the UVA 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Julian Gray

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.73

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 14 yds to the UVA 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.61

Brennan Armstrong run for 13 yds to the UVA 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Collin Smith kickoff for 64 yds , Malik Washington return for 23 yds to the UVA 24

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.77

A. Colandrea takes a knee

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the UVA 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.59

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 6 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Mike Hollins run for no gain to the UVA 36

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.18

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 12 yds to the UVA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Anthony Colandrea run for no gain to the UVA 48

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Perris Jones run for 5 yds to the NCSU 47

3rd & 5Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.00

Anthony Colandrea sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the UVA 44

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 20

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Michael Allen run for no gain to the NCSU 20

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.26

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for no gain to the NCSU 20

3rd & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.19

Brennan Armstrong sacked by James Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the NCSU 9

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+59 ydsPPA +3.36

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 59 yds to the NCSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the NCSU 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Anthony Colandrea run for 1 yd to the NCSU 3

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jaden Gibson

4th & 3Field Goal Good+21 yds

Will Bettridge 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+9 yds

Matt Ganyard kickoff for 61 yds , Kendrick Raphael return for 9 yds to the NCSU 13

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the NCSU 9

2nd & 14Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 5 yds to the NCSU 14

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane

4th & 9Punt+6 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 49 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 6 yds to the UVA 43

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +1.70

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 29 yds to the NCSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Mike Hollins run for no gain to the NCSU 28

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.55

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the NCSU 19

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

Kobe Pace run for no gain to the NCSU 19

4th & 1Field Goal Good+36 yds

Will Bettridge 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.45

Michael Allen run for 16 yds to the NCSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the NCSU 43

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 7 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the UVA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+48 ydsPPA +3.69

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 48 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Mike Hollins for 5 yds to the UVA 30

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Anthony Colandrea run for 3 yds to the UVA 27

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malik Washington

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Anthony Colandrea run for 4 yds to the UVA 33

3rd & 6Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.56

Anthony Colandrea sacked by Red Hibbler for a loss of 4 yards to the UVA 29

4th & 10Punt+17 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 52 yds , Julian Gray returns for 17 yds to the NCSU 36

4th & 10Punt+17 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 52 yds , Julian Gray returns for 17 yds to the NCSU 14

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the NCSU 16

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin Concepcion

3rd & 8Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.35

Brennan Armstrong run for 12 yds to the NCSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCSU 28

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 34

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin Concepcion

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 43 yds , Micah Gaffney returns for no gain to the UVA 28

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.66

Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the UVA 29

2nd & 9Interception0 ydsPPA -0.48

Anthony Colandrea pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Delbert Mimms III run for 3 yds to the NCSU 29

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.17

Delbert Mimms III run for 7 yds to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the NCSU 35

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin Concepcion

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Julian Gray

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 20

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.24

Anthony Colandrea run for 16 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.52

Anthony Colandrea run for 15 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.28

Anthony Colandrea pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the NCSU 9

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the NCSU 11

3rd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.08

Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCSU 11

4th & 9Punt+10 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 10 yds to the NCSU 46

4th & 9Punt+10 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 10 yds to the UVA 34

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Anthony Colandrea run for 11 yds to the UVA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.76

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 6 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.71

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 19 yds to the NCSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Anthony Colandrea run for 1 yd to the NCSU 26

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.60

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 10 yds to the NCSU 16

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Mike Hollins run for no gain to the NCSU 16

4th & 1Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.48

Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 12 yds to the NCSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the NCSU 3

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi Fields

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Malik Washington 3 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Anthony Colandrea Pass to Malachi Fields for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the UVA 40

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+35 yds

Matt Ganyard kickoff for 63 yds , Julian Gray return for 35 yds to the UVA 48

2nd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.02

Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the UVA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the UVA 30

3rd & 8Penalty+15 yds

(00:03) Narveson,Brayden field goal attempt from 48 yards NO GOOD blocked by Jackson,James (H: Noonkester,Caden, LS: Shimko,Joe), clock 00:00 PENALTY UVA Personal Foul (Jackson,James) 15 yards from UVA30 to UVA15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Field Goal Good+33 yds

Brayden Narveson 33 yd FG GOOD

Situational Analysis

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
44%
27 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
55%
11 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th

Virginia

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
40%
30 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
67%
12 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
29%
7 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays