Skip to main content
← Back to GamesNov 25, 2023Week 13

House Prediction

Model Margin

Louisville by 17.3

Home Win Probability

Louisville 83%

Market (Bovada)

Louisville -7.5

Edge: Louisville -7.5 (9.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 25, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
KentuckyKentucky
07141738
LouisvilleLouisville
7314731

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-07-710-717-724-1524-2424-3131-38
LouisvilleKentucky

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20KENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOULOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENPUNT54ydTD1470ydPUNT730ydPUNT37ydTD952ydFG731ydPUNT412ydPUNT829ydEND1-1ydTD1575ydTD551ydTD275ydTO338ydFG1020ydTO3-2ydTD222ydDOWNS724ydTO31ydTD425ydTD475ydTO840ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Kentucky and Louisville
StatisticKentuckyLouisville
Passing12-2224-33
Pass Yards206242
Rush Yards83161
Total Yards289403
Turnovers13
3rd Down3-99-17
Penalties0-03-40
Possession23:2636:34

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Kentucky
passing
Devin Leary
12/22, 206 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Re'Mahn Davis
14 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Izayah Cummings
1 REC, 55 YDS
defense
Louisville
passing
Jack Plummer
24/33, 242 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jawhar Jordan
17 CAR, 67 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jamari Thrash
6 REC, 60 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff for 64 yds , Barion Brown return for no gain to the UK 35

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the UK 39

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.72

Ray Davis run for 13 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.97

Ray Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the UK 48

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Devin Leary pass incomplete

3rd & 14Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.83

Devin Leary sacked by Kameron Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the UK 39

4th & 23Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 31 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 1 yd to the LOU 31

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 34

3rd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.08

Jack Plummer run for 8 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.95

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 11 yds to the UK 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.01

Jack Plummer run for 9 yds to the UK 38

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the UK 38

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the UK 38

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.74

Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.33

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 12 yds to the UK 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.58

Jack Plummer run for 11 yds to the UK 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Jawhar Jordan run for 9 yds to the UK 4

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.99

Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the UK 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.66

Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the UK 29

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Devin Leary pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.46

Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 25 yds to the LOU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.57

Barion Brown run for 11 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Devin Leary pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the LOU 32

3rd & 7Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.74

Devin Leary sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 10 yards to the LOU 42

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the LOU 15

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.52

Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the LOU 15

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 37 yds, downed at the UK 48

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Ramon Jefferson run for no gain to the UK 48

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Devin Leary pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.90

Devin Leary pass complete to Khamari Anderson for 11 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Ramon Jefferson run for 4 yds to the LOU 37

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Ramon Jefferson run for 8 yds to the LOU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.25

Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 16 yds to the LOU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 6 yds to the LOU 7

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.52

Ramon Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 9

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.87

Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 9 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 44

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the LOU 48

3rd & 3Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.59

Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 29 yds to the UK 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-15 yds

(06:12) JORDAN, Jawhar rush to the right for a loss of 3 yards to the KEN26 (JACKSON, D'Eryk;HAYES, Josaih), clock 06:07. PENALTY LOU Personal Foul on BELL, Chris enforced 15 yards from the KEN23 to the KEN38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 25Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Jack Plummer run for 2 yds to the UK 36

3rd & 23Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 8 yds to the UK 28

4th & 15Field Goal Good+46 yds

Brock Travelstead 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Devin Leary pass complete to Brenden Bates for 10 yds to the UK 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Devin Leary pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.10

Ray Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 41

3rd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 4 yds to the UK 45

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 55 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 19

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.63

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 10 yds to the LOU 29

3rd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.87

Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 3 yds to the LOU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 9 yds to the LOU 41

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 3 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Jack Plummer run for 4 yds to the LOU 48

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 1 yd to the LOU 49

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Brady Hodges punt for 51 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

(00:06) [SG] Kneel down by KEN at KEN19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:01.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the LOU 30

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the LOU 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.05

Jack Plummer run for 3 yds to the LOU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Kevin Coleman run for 11 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Jack Plummer run for 4 yds to the UK 48

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the UK 48

3rd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.41

Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 15 yds to the UK 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the UK 27

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.06

Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the UK 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the UK 14

2nd & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.22

Isaac Guerendo run for 12 yds to the UK 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the UK 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the UK 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jack Plummer run for no gain to the UK 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return Touchdown+100 yds

Brock Travelstead kickoff 65 yds to the UK 0, Barion Brown 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Alex Raynor Kick)

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.95

Isaac Guerendo run for 16 yds to the UK 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.42

Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 21 yds to the UK 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 3 yds to the UK 11

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the UK 11

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.96

Jack Plummer pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 11 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+55 ydsPPA +3.46

Devin Leary pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 55 yds to the LOU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 20 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Chance Poore kickoff for 64 yds , Maurice Turner return for 19 yds to the LOU 20. PENALTY LOU Holding on Nate Kurisky,enforced 10 yards after the change of possession from the end of the play at the LOU20 to the LOU10, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred.

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.41

Kevin Coleman run for 10 yds to the LOU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.78

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 11 yds to the LOU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+17 ydsPPA -1.39

Jawhar Jordan run for 17 yds to the LOU 48 Jawhar Jordan fumbled, recovered by UK J.J. Weaver (00:28) [NHSG] JORDAN, Jawhar rush up the middle for a gain of 17 yards, JORDAN, Jawhar fumbled at LOU47 forced by WEAVER, J.J., recovered by KEN WEAVER, J.J. at the LOU48, returned 0 yards to the LOU48, End of Play, clock 00:06.

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 7 yds to the LOU 41

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the LOU 40

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Devin Leary pass incomplete

4th & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.12

Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Ray Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 36

2nd & 11Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.14

Barion Brown run for 11 yds to the LOU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the LOU 24

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Devin Leary pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.67

Devin Leary run for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 28

4th & 13Field Goal Good+46 yds

Alex Raynor 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the LOU 35

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

3rd & 3Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-9 ydsPPA -0.70

Jack Plummer run for a loss of 9 yards to the LOU 22 D'Eryk Jackson fumbled, recovered by UK J.J. Weaver (09:34) [NHSG] QB Keeper PLUMMER, Jack rush to the right for a loss of 9 yards, PLUMMER, Jack fumbled at LOU35 forced by JACKSON, D'Eryk, recovered by KEN WEAVER, J.J. at the LOU26, returned 4 yards to the LOU22, End of Play, clock 09:23.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the LOU 20

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.87

Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 20 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.99

Jack Plummer sacked by J.J. Weaver for a loss of 7 yards to the LOU 31

2nd & 17Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the LOU 37

3rd & 11Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +3.22

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 16 yds to the UK 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 9 yds to the UK 38

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the UK 38

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -2.25

Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the UK 38

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the UK 39

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Devin Leary pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Interception Return+18 ydsPPA -0.38

Devin Leary pass intercepted Jarvis Brownlee Jr. return for 18 yds to the UK 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the UK 23

2nd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.54

Jack Plummer sacked by Josaih Hayes for a loss of 6 yards to the UK 29

3rd & 14Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.60

Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 8 yds to the UK 21

4th & 6Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +3.88

Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 21 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Ray Davis run for 15 yds to the UK 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Devin Leary pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.83

Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 23 yds to the LOU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +3.05

Ray Davis run for 37 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 6 yds to the LOU 34

3rd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.09

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 10 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 3 yds to the LOU 47

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Jack Plummer pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.75

Jack Plummer pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 14 yds to the UK 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 7 yds to the UK 32

2nd & 3Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.29

Jack Plummer pass intercepted, touchback. Jordan Lovett return for no gain

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Kneel down by KEN at KEN19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
39%
23 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
67%
3 plays
25%
8 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
40%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
53%
30 plays
2nd
14%
7 plays
50%
4 plays
33%
9 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
38%
8 plays
75%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play