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← Back to GamesNov 11, 2023Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Western Kentucky by 2.6

Home Win Probability

Western Kentucky 53%

Market (Bovada)

Western Kentucky -5

Edge: New Mexico State +5 (2.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 11, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
New Mexico StateNew Mexico State
31471438
Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky
1470829

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284214-014-314-1014-1721-1721-2421-3129-38
Western KentuckyNew Mexico State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20WKNMSWKNMSWKNMSWKNMSWKNMSWKNMSWKNMSWKNMSWKWKNMSTD375ydPUNT33ydTD1073ydFG652ydPUNT33ydTD745ydMISS745ydTD1172ydTD1775ydPUNT529ydPUNT435ydTD1080ydMISS1180ydPUNT413ydPUNT33ydTD1165ydTD427ydTD771ydDOWNS4-8yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing New Mexico State and Western Kentucky
StatisticNew Mexico StateWestern Kentucky
Passing14-2420-36
Pass Yards141270
Rush Yards220167
Total Yards361437
Turnovers01
3rd Down5-125-12
Penalties7-652-15
Possession32:4927:11

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

New Mexico State
passing
Diego Pavia
14/24, 141 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Star Thomas
7 CAR, 85 YDS
receiving
Jonathan Brady
3 REC, 31 YDS
defense
Western Kentucky
passing
Austin Reed
20/36, 270 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Elijah Young
14 CAR, 80 YDS
receiving
Elijah Young
3 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Elijah Young run for 1 yd to the WKU 26

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 28

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+72 ydsPPA +6.93

Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 72 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Kordell David

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMSU 28

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Sone Aupiu

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 45 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 27

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Elijah Young run for 9 yds to the WKU 36

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the WKU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Trevor Borland

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.05

Markese Stepp run for 9 yds to the WKU 48

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.15

Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.67

Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 11 yds to the NMSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.37

Austin Reed pass complete to River Helms for 12 yds to the NMSU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.15

Markese Stepp run for 10 yds to the NMSU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the NMSU 13

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.67

Austin Reed run for 13 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)

1st & 10Rush+40 ydsPPA +3.11

Star Thomas run for 40 yds to the WKU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.29

Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the WKU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WKU 25

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the WKU 23

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jonathan Brady

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jonathan Brady

4th & 9Field Goal Good+40 yds

Ethan Albertson 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the WKU 27

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Easton Messer

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin Smith

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Cory Munson punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKU 45

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the WKU 42 Diego Pavia fumbled, recovered by NMSU Diego Pavia No Huddle-Shotgun Pavia,Diego rush right for 3 yards gain to the WKU42 fumbled by Pavia,Diego at WKU47 recovered by NMS Pavia,Diego at WKU47 (Rice,Lonnie).

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli Stowers

3rd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.05

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 12 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.22

Diego Pavia run for 12 yds to the WKU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.27

Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 10 yds to the WKU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Monte Watkins run for 2 yds to the WKU 10

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.80

Jonathan Brady run for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.77

Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for no gain to the WKU 27

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Elijah Young

3rd & 10Penalty+10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete short middle to Holiday,Jimmy broken up by Akles,Reggie PENALTY NMS Holding (Miller,Mehki) 10 yards from WKU27 to WKU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.26

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 34 yds to the NMSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the NMSU 31

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi Corley

3rd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the NMSU 28

3rd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the NMSU 28

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+46 yds

Lucas Carneiro 46 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Monte Watkins run for no gain to the NMSU 28

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jonathan Brady

3rd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.70

Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 16 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 5 yds to the NMSU 49

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.20

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Chris Bellamy

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 4 yds to the WKU 47

4th & 1Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.80

Diego Pavia pass complete to Trevor Stephens for 17 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.22

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 12 yds to the WKU 18 for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the WKU 13

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.83

Makhilyn Young run for 9 yds to the WKU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 4 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 11 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Markese Stepp run for 5 yds to the WKU 41

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)+12 ydsPPA +1.42

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 12 yds Malachi Corley fumbled, recovered by WKU Malachi Corley for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin Smith

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.55

Elijah Young run for 7 yds to the NMSU 40

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the NMSU 38

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.78

Austin Reed run for 3 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.75

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 9 yds to the NMSU 26

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Markese Stepp run for 1 yd to the NMSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Austin Reed pass incomplete to River Helms

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Elijah Young run for 6 yds to the NMSU 19

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.45

Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 5 yds to the NMSU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the NMSU 11

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Trevor Borland

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 6 yds to the NMSU 5

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.17

Austin Reed run for 1 yd to the NMSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the NMSU 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.44

Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 20 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Trent Hudson

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the WKU 45

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Eli Stowers run for 1 yd to the WKU 46

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.25

Austin Reed pass complete to Markese Stepp for 26 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the WKU 33

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 2 yds to the WKU 35

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the WKU 39

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Cory Munson punt for 41 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for no gain to the NMSU 20

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Trent Hudson run for 10 yds to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 6 yds to the NMSU 36

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMSU 37

3rd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.98

Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 9 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Pavia,Diego pass incomplete short right to Brady,Jonathan PENALTY WKU Offside (Cooper,Niko) 5 yards from NMS46 to WKU49. NO PLAY.

1st & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.94

Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the WKU 48

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.52

Monte Watkins run for 6 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+32 ydsPPA +0.78

Star Thomas run for 32 yds to the WKU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Thomaz Whitford

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the WKU 7

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the WKU 7

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.88

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the WKU 19

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 3 yds to the WKU 22

3rd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 9 yds to the WKU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Elijah Young run for 1 yd to the WKU 30

2nd & 11Penalty+10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete short middle to Ervin-Poindexter,Davion PENALTY NMS Holding (Union,Torren) 10 yards from WKU30 to WKU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +1.78

Dalvin Smith run for 25 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 6 yds to the NMSU 29

2nd & 4Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.19

Elijah Young run for 9 yds to the NMSU 20 for a 1ST down New Mexico State Penalty, Personal Foul (Myles Rowser) to the NMSU 5 for a 1ST down

2nd & 4Rush+24 ydsPPA +0.85

Elijah Young run for 9 yds to the NMSU 20 for a 1ST down New Mexico State Penalty, Personal Foul Targeting (Myles Rowser) to the NMSU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Markese Stepp run for no gain to the NMSU 5

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin Smith

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Trevor Borland

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+22 yds

Lucas Carneiro 22 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Makhilyn Young run for 10 yds to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Chris Bellamy

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the NMSU 33

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Trent Hudson

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the WKU 35

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Trevor Borland

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin Smith

4th & 7Punt+1 yds

Cory Munson punt for 31 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for 1 yd to the NMSU 35

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Jamoni Jones run for 13 yds to the NMSU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the WKU 48

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the WKU 43

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.19

Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the WKU 43

4th & 1Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +2.19

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 6 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.43

Jamoni Jones run for 17 yds to the WKU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Jamoni Jones run for 8 yds to the WKU 12

2nd & 2Penalty-10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Jones,Jamoni rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WKU10 (Wheeler,Hosea) PENALTY NMS Holding (Vaipulu,AJ) 10 yards from WKU12 to WKU22. NO PLAY.

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the WKU 17

3rd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.45

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 13 yds to the WKU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the WKU 7

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Eli Stowers run for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 5 yds to the WKU 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.

3rd & 5Penalty0 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete deep right to Burt, Jr.,Craig broken up by Akles,Reggie PENALTY NMS Offside declined NMS Pass Interference (Akles,Reggie) 15 yards from WKU30 to WKU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 7 yds to the NMSU 48

2nd & 3Interception Return Touchdown+57 ydsPPA -10.38

Mehki Miller 57 Yd Interception Return (Ethan Albertson Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 4 yds to the WKU 33

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.

3rd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.84

Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Austin Reed pass incomplete to Easton Messer

2nd & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.05

Elijah Young run for 17 yds to the NMSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.34

Elijah Young run for 18 yds to the NMSU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 15 yds for a TD (Malachi Corley pass to for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Eli Stowers run for 5 yds to the NMSU 38

2nd & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Eli Stowers run for 5 yds to the NMSU 33

3rd & 20Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.12

D. Pavia takes a knee

4th & 19Rush-1 ydsPPA +0.31

D. Pavia takes a knee

Situational Analysis

New Mexico State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
3 plays
63%
24 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
40%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
50%
8 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Western Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
50%
30 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
45%
11 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
67%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays