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← Back to GamesOct 24, 2023Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

New Mexico State by 9.7

Home Win Probability

Louisiana Tech 24%

Market (Bovada)

Louisiana Tech -3

Edge: New Mexico State +3 (12.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 24, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
New Mexico StateNew Mexico State
01014327
Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech
3138024

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-09-016-316-1016-1724-2424-27
Louisiana TechNew Mexico State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LTNMSLTNMSLTNMSLTNMSLTNMSNMSLTNMSLTNMSLTNMSLTNMSLTNMSPUNT423ydPUNT38ydFG538ydPUNT39ydTD1272ydFG645ydTD1275ydTD875ydMISS946ydEND10ydTD1575ydTO2-15ydTD27ydTD855ydDOWNS933ydPUNT33ydFG1081ydTO940ydPUNT32ydDOWNS819ydEND1-15yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech
StatisticNew Mexico StateLouisiana Tech
Passing10-1920-27
Pass Yards95238
Rush Yards232133
Total Yards327371
Turnovers02
3rd Down5-133-11
Penalties5-525-60
Possession29:5030:10

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

New Mexico State
passing
Diego Pavia
10/19, 95 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Star Thomas
10 CAR, 88 YDS
receiving
Jonathan Brady
2 REC, 33 YDS
defense
Louisiana Tech
passing
Hank Bachmeier
20/27, 238 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Keldric Moody
9 CAR, 55 YDS
receiving
Kyle Maxwell
3 REC, 68 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Hank Bachmeier run for 18 yds to the LT 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Dakota Williams run for 4 yds to the LT 47

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.84

Dakota Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the LT 43 Dakota Williams fumbled, recovered by LT Hank Bachmeier

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Eli Finley for 5 yds to the LT 48

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Blake Ochsendorf punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 13

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the NMSU 17

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NMSU 20

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the NMSU 21

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+47 ydsPPA +2.48

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 47 yds to the NMSU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Charvis Thornton run for 3 yds to the NMSU 13

2nd & 7Penalty0 yds

LATULAS, Dedrick rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the NMS8, out of bounds. PENALTY LAT Personal Foul on GILBERT, Jerren declined LAT Personal Foul on DELFIN, Abraham enforced 15 yards from the NMS13 to the NMS28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 22Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.39

Hank Bachmeier sacked by Keyshaun Elliott and Sterling Webb for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 30

3rd & 24Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Charvis Thornton run for 5 yds to the NMSU 25

4th & 19Field Goal Good+42 yds

Jacob Barnes 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Jonathan Brady run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 21

2nd & 14Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.48

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 10 yds to the NMSU 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 3 yds to the NMSU 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 9 yds to the LT 37

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.35

Jacob Fields run for no gain to the LT 37

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.13

Charvis Thornton run for 3 yds to the LT 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.92

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Charvis Thornton run for 1 yd to the NMSU 49

2nd & 9Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.81

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 16 yds to the NMSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

QB Keeper BACHMEIER, Hank rush up the middle for a gain of 10 yards to the LAT37, out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. PENALTY NMS Holding on ELLIOTT, Keyshaun LAT Illegal Block in the Back on THORNTON, Charvis , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Charvis Thornton run for 4 yds to the NMSU 29

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.34

Hank Bachmeier run for 9 yds to the NMSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Dedrick Latulas run for 7 yds to the NMSU 13

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.01

Keldric Moody run for 5 yds to the NMSU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Keldric Moody run for 7 yds to the NMSU 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Hank Bachmeier run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.32

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 26 yds to the LT 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

PAVIA, Diego sacked for a loss of 6 yards at the NMS45 (WILLIAMS, Rason). PENALTY LAT Personal Foul on WILLIAMS, Rason enforced 15 yards from the LAT49 to the LAT34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jonathan Brady run for no gain to the LT 34

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Monte Watkins run for no gain to the LT 34

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the LT 30

4th & 6Field Goal Good+47 yds

Ethan Albertson 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

run for 2 yds to the LT 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Charvis Thornton run for 2 yds to the LT 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.89

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 9 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 7 yds to the LT 45

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.40

Hank Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.19

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 28 yds to the NMSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.12

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Keldric Moody for 10 yds to the NMSU 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Keldric Moody run for 6 yds to the NMSU 6

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Hank Bachmeier run for 3 yds to the NMSU 3

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.26

Jack Turner run for 1 yd to the NMSU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Dakota Williams run for 1 yd to the NMSU 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Hank Bachmeier run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.15

Jamoni Jones run for 24 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.68

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 10 yds to the LT 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.40

Star Thomas run for 10 yds to the LT 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the LT 24

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the LT 24

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the LT 22

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.86

Eli Stowers run for 3 yds to the LT 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Diego Pavia run for 19 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Charvis Thornton run for 2 yds to the LT 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.61

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 22 yds to the LT 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Charvis Thornton run for 4 yds to the NMSU 47

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 5 yds to the NMSU 42

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.96

Keldric Moody run for 2 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.40

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 11 yds to the NMSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Field Goal Missed+46 yds

Jacob Barnes 46 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

[NHSG] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at NMS29 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the NMSU 26

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NMSU 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.99

Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 10 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.99

Diego Pavia run for 26 yds to the LT 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the LT 29

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the LT 26

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.31

Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the LT 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the LT 21

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.27

Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 7 yds to the LT 14

4th & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.97

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 7 yds to the LT 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.54

Diego Pavia run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 9

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Makhilyn Young run for 1 yd to the LT 8

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.95

Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 8 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (Jerren Gilbert) to the LT 17

1st & 15Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.38

Charvis Thornton run for a loss of 4 yards to the LT 13

2nd & 19Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.09

Hank Bachmeier sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the LT 7

1st & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Jamoni Jones run for 6 yds to the LT 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(04:50) LATULAS, Dedrick rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the NMS46 (EARLY, Dylan). PENALTY LAT Holding on HARRIS, Smoke enforced 10 yards from the LAT45 to the LAT35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.99

Keldric Moody run for 14 yds to the LT 49

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Eli Finley for 5 yds to the NMSU 46

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.20

Keldric Moody run for no gain to the NMSU 46

4th & 1Penalty+15 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Andre Seldon) to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.18

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Jacob Fields for 12 yds to the NMSU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Dedrick Latulas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 13

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.27

Keldric Moody run for 10 yds to the NMSU 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to John Locke for 3 yds for a TD (Hank Bachmeier pass to Smoke Harris for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Monte Watkins run for 8 yds to the NMSU 33

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.54

Monte Watkins run for 7 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the NMSU 44

2nd & 6Penalty-10 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chris Bellamy) to the NMSU 40

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

PAVIA, Diego pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HUDSON, Trent thrown to the LAT20. PENALTY LAT Pass Interference on ROBERTS, Willie enforced 15 yards to the LAT45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Monte Watkins run for 3 yds to the LT 42

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.30

Hank Bachmeier sacked by Keyshaun Elliott for a loss of 5 yards to the LT 37

3rd & 15Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.28

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Charvis Thornton for 8 yds to the LT 45

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Blake Ochsendorf punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 5

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.30

Star Thomas run for 10 yds to the NMSU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-3 yds

(09:51) STOWERS, Eli rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the NMS18 (ROBERTS, Willie). PENALTY NMS Personal Foul on PAVIA, Diego enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the NMS15 to the NMS8 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 17Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.28

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 9 yds to the NMSU 17

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

(08:44) PAVIA, Diego pass to the left incomplete intended for THOMAS, Star thrown to the NMS25. PENALTY NMS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on YARRO, Canaan enforced 5 yards from the NMS17 to the NMS12 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 13Rush+40 ydsPPA +3.52

Star Thomas run for 40 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 5 yds to the LT 43

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the LT 41

3rd & 3Rush+26 ydsPPA +1.64

Monte Watkins run for 26 yds to the LT 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the LT 14

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+31 yds

Ethan Albertson 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Charvis Thornton run for 4 yds to the LT 30

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.37

Charvis Thornton run for 10 yds to the LT 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Hank Bachmeier run for 3 yds to the LT 43

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

3rd & 7Penalty+6 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, personal foul (6 Yards) to the LT 49

4th & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.48

Keldric Moody run for 6 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.66

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 15 yds to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Keldric Moody run for 5 yds to the NMSU 25

2nd & 5Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.22

Hank Bachmeier sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the NMSU 34

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMSU 35

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMSU 36

3rd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39

Monte Watkins run for no gain to the NMSU 36

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 28 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Charvis Thornton for 3 yds to the LT 39

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Jacob Fields run for 6 yds to the LT 45

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.06

Jacob Fields run for 1 yd to the LT 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Jacob Fields run for 2 yds to the LT 48

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 7 yds to the NMSU 45

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.57

Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Malachi McLean) to the NMSU 30

1st & 25Rush0 ydsPPA -0.25

[SG] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at NMS30 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

New Mexico State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
46%
24 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
13%
8 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Louisiana Tech

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
50%
28 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
43%
7 plays
38%
8 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
75%
4 plays