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← Back to GamesOct 12, 2023Week 7
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

New Mexico State by 11.8

Home Win Probability

New Mexico State 77%

Market (Bovada)

New Mexico State -4

Edge: New Mexico State -4 (7.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 12, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Sam HoustonSam Houston
006713
New Mexico StateNew Mexico State
14130027

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-017-020-027-027-627-13
New Mexico StateSam Houston

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SHNMSSHNMSSHNMSSHNMSSHNMSSHNMSSHNMSSHNMSSHNMSSHNMSSHNMSSHNMSSHNMSPUNT635ydTD1187ydPUNT428ydTD280ydEND43ydFG966ydDOWNS627ydFG731ydPUNT411ydTD1189ydEND426ydPUNT614ydPUNT31ydPUNT37ydPUNT30ydPUNT3-2ydTD218ydPUNT528ydMISS860ydPUNT3-2ydTD670ydPUNT627ydDOWNS1359ydPUNT3-6ydDOWNS624ydEND37yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Sam Houston and New Mexico State
StatisticSam HoustonNew Mexico State
Passing32-4920-36
Pass Yards285286
Rush Yards82172
Total Yards367458
Turnovers00
3rd Down1-124-14
Penalties3-238-85
Possession27:5032:10

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Sam Houston
passing
Keegan Shoemaker
32/48, 285 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Keegan Shoemaker
7 CAR, 42 YDS
receiving
Malik Phillips
10 REC, 118 YDS
defense
New Mexico State
passing
Diego Pavia
20/36, 286 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Diego Pavia
15 CAR, 115 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Trent Hudson
3 REC, 122 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 16 yds to the SHSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 8 yds to the SHSU 49

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.24

Noah Smith run for 7 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Tobias Weaver run for 2 yds to the NMSU 42

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Tobias Weaver run for 4 yds to the NMSU 38

3rd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.52

Tobias Weaver run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 40

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Jadon Cardell punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 6 yds to the NMSU 19

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 10 yds to the NMSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

Monte Watkins run for no gain to the NMSU 29

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.24

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 15 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

QB Keeper PAVIA, Diego rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the SHS49, out of bounds. PENALTY NMS Holding on TIAVAASUE, Ron enforced 10 yards from the NMS44 to the NMS34 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.50

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 16 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the SHSU 47

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.88

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the SHSU 43

2nd & 7Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.17

Diego Pavia run for 17 yds to the SHSU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the SHSU 22

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.76

Diego Pavia run for 22 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.80

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 20 yds to the SHSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.59

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 43

2nd & 12Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Keegan Shoemaker run for 6 yds to the SHSU 49

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 4 yds to the NMSU 47

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jadon Cardell punt for 47 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 22

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+78 ydsPPA +6.75

Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 78 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Sam Houston Penalty, Offensive Holding (Malik Phillips) to the SHSU 21

1st & 14Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 8 yds to the SHSU 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.74

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 28

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

4th & 7Penalty+15 yds

CARDELL, Jadon punt 39 yards to the NMS33, BRADY, Jonathan return of 11 yards to the NMS44 nullified, End of Play, clock 14:46. PENALTY NMS Unnecessary Roughness on ROWSER, Myles enforced 15 yards after the change of possession from the NMS44 to the NMS29, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 5 yds to the NMSU 34

2nd & 5Rush+41 ydsPPA +2.97

Diego Pavia run for 41 yds to the SHSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.14

Eli Stowers run for 10 yds to the SHSU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the SHSU 7

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.42

Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the SHSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.75

Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 5

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+22 yds

Ethan Albertson 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Keegan Shoemaker run for 7 yds to the SHSU 32

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Jordan Yates run for 1 yd to the SHSU 33

3rd & 2Penalty+10 yds

SHOEMAKER, Keegan pass to the left complete for 14 yards to YATES, Jordan caught at the SHS47 and advanced to the SHS47 (ELLIOTT, Keyshaun;GANS, Tim). PENALTY NMS Holding on MARTINEZ, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the SHS33 to the SHS43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 45

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Adrian Murdaugh for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Keegan Shoemaker run for 1 yd to the NMSU 49

4th & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -1.09

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 1 yd to the NMSU 48

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.01

Diego Pavia run for 13 yds to the SHSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.59

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 25 yds to the SHSU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the SHSU 9

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush-12 ydsPPA -2.23

Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the SHSU 6 New Mexico State Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Personal Foul on CANEPA, Louie enforced (-15 Yards) to the SHSU 21

4th & 17Field Goal Good+39 yds

Ethan Albertson 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 13 yds to the SHSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.27

Tobias Weaver run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 37

2nd & 11Pass Reception-10 ydsPPA -1.08

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for a loss of 10 yards to the SHSU 27

3rd & 21Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.11

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 9 yds to the SHSU 36

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Jadon Cardell punt for 51 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for no gain New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NMSU 11

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.83

Monte Watkins run for 16 yds to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Diego Pavia pass complete to Monte Watkins for 5 yds to the NMSU 32

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.90

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 8 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +3.12

Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 32 yds to the SHSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.76

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 18 yds to the SHSU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+8 yds

PAVIA, Diego pass to the right incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the SHS0. PENALTY SHS Pass Interference on HOBBS, Dakerric enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the SHS2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 2Penalty-10 yds

PAVIA, Diego pass short to the right incomplete intended for THOMAS, Star thrown to the SHS0. PENALTY NMS Holding on THOMAS, Star enforced 10 yards from the SHS2 to the SHS12. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 12Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +3.23

Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 12 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 13 yds to the SHSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.19

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 13 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the NMSU 29

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Star Thomas run for no gain to the NMSU 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.99

Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 10 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 41

2nd & 8Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.44

Diego Pavia sacked by Trevor Williams and Issiah Nixon for a loss of 5 yards to the NMSU 36

3rd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the NMSU 39

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Keegan Shoemaker run for 1 yd to the SHSU 17

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jadon Cardell punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the NMSU 44

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.83

Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the SHSU 48

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.33

Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 49

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Jadon Cardell punt for 51 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for no gain to the NMSU 35

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.32

Monte Watkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 33

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 12Blocked Punt0 yds

punt blocked by Jadarius Brown blocked by Jadarius Brown

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Tobias Weaver run for 2 yds to the NMSU 16

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.79

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 5 yds to the NMSU 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.71

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 15 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the SHSU 47

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Adrian Murdaugh run for 8 yds to the SHSU 20

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Adrian Murdaugh run for 3 yds to the SHSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.80

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 33 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.65

Adrian Murdaugh run for 16 yds to the NMSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Adrian Murdaugh run for no gain to the NMSU 28

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+45 yds

Colby Sessums 45 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.01

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 26

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.50

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 30 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 9 yds to the NMSU 31

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.84

Adrian Murdaugh run for no gain to the NMSU 31

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.40

Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the NMSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +0.74

Keegan Shoemaker run for 23 yds to the NMSU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 6 yds to the NMSU 34

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.64

Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.01

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 5 yds to the SHSU 45

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 36 yds, downed at the SHSU 9

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 6 yds to the SHSU 15

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.54

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 10 yds to the SHSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Elijah Sohn for 16 yds to the SHSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Adrian Murdaugh for 5 yds to the SHSU 46

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

4th & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +3.01

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 8 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 7 yds to the NMSU 39

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 5 yds to the NMSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 7 yds to the NMSU 27

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

Sam Houston Penalty, False Start (Graceson Jackson-Smith) to the NMSU 32

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

2nd & 3Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.67

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for no gain to the NMSU 27

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.92

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 34

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 6 yds to the NMSU 40

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (Louie Canepa) to the NMSU 35

3rd & 7Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.67

Diego Pavia sacked by Chris Murray for a loss of 9 yards to the NMSU 26

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 9 yds to the SHSU 33

2nd & 1Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.64

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 12 yds to the SHSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 3 yds to the SHSU 48

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the SHSU 44

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the SHSU 42

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the SHSU 41

Situational Analysis

Sam Houston

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
62%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
43%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
33%
9 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
6 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays

New Mexico State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
48%
27 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
100%
1 play
38%
13 plays
89%
9 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
0%
1 play
25%
4 plays
4th