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← Back to GamesSep 23, 2023Week 4

House Prediction

Model Margin

Troy by 8.6

Home Win Probability

Troy 68%

Market (Bovada)

Troy -3.5

Edge: Troy -3.5 (5.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 23, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky
7071024
TroyTroy
01010727

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-73-710-717-1420-1420-1727-1727-24
TroyWestern Kentucky

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20WKTROWKTROWKTROWKTROWKTROWKTROTROTROWKTROWKTROWKTROWKTROWKTROPUNT630ydTO1676ydTD626ydPUNT535ydPUNT39ydFG1256ydPUNT3-5ydTO37ydTO214ydPUNT46ydPUNT36ydTD556ydPUNT3-2ydTD438ydTD877ydFG1066ydFG769ydPUNT39ydPUNT59ydTD1089ydDOWNS44ydTO229ydTD580ydEND747yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Western Kentucky and Troy
StatisticWestern KentuckyTroy
Passing24-4022-35
Pass Yards275349
Rush Yards13172
Total Yards288521
Turnovers23
3rd Down2-109-18
Penalties3-217-71
Possession21:0138:59

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Western Kentucky
passing
Austin Reed
24/40, 275 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Elijah Young
5 CAR, 9 YDS
receiving
Malachi Corley
9 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Troy
passing
Gunnar Watson
22/35, 349 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Kimani Vidal
26 CAR, 156 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Chris Lewis
3 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Elijah Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKU 23

2nd & 12Penalty+15 yds

REED, Austin pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CORLEY, Malachi thrown to the WKU40. PENALTY TRO Pass Interference on DAVIS, Irshaad enforced 15 yards to the WKU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 6 yds to the WKU 44

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.86

Austin Reed pass complete to Aaron Key for 8 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Austin Reed pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the TROY 45

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Austin Reed pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Tom Ellard punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 13

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 17

2nd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.75

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 9 yds to the TROY 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 29

3rd & 7Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +3.22

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 23 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the WKU 46

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.45

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 12 yds to the WKU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the WKU 31

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the WKU 27

4th & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.38

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 5 yds to the WKU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.45

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 9 yds to the WKU 13

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.09

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the WKU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.34

Gunnar Watson sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 4 yds to the TROY 22

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds to the TROY 19

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.35

Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the TROY 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Austin Reed run for 5 yds to the TROY 11

2nd & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Austin Reed pass complete to L.T. Sanders for 1 yd to the TROY 10

3rd & 4Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.78

K.D. Hutchinson 3 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Damien Taylor run for no gain to the TROY 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +3.73

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 38 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the WKU 31

2nd & 4Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.62

Gunnar Watson sacked by Niko Cooper for a loss of 9 yards to the WKU 40

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 29 yds, downed at the WKU 11

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.60

Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 8 yds to the WKU 19

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Austin Reed pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the WKU 20

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Tom Ellard punt for 44 yds, downed at the TROY 36

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Jarris Williams run for 2 yds to the TROY 38

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Troy Penalty, False Start (Grant Betts) to the TROY 33

2nd & 13Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.51

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 8 yds to the TROY 41

3rd & 5Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.78

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 16 yds to the WKU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Asa Martin run for 4 yds to the WKU 39

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.54

Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the WKU 37

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the WKU 37

4th & 4Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.42

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 15 yds to the WKU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.13

Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds to the WKU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the WKU 8

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+25 yds

Scott Taylor Renfroe 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Austin Reed pass complete to Aaron Key for 4 yds to the WKU 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 5 yds to the WKU 34

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

Western Kentucky Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Davion Ervin-Poindexter) to the WKU 29

3rd & 6Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.52

Austin Reed sacked by Javon Solomon and Phillip Lee for a loss of 9 yards to the WKU 20

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Tom Ellard punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 38

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left complete for 8 yards to LEWIS, Chris caught at the TRO46 and advanced to the TRO46, End of Play. PENALTY TRO Holding on GRAHAM, Derrick enforced 10 yards from the TRO38 to the TRO28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 5 yds to the TROY 33

2nd & 15Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the TROY 39

3rd & 9Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+6 ydsPPA -0.38

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 6 yds Deshon Stoudemire fumbled, recovered by WKU Kylan Guidry

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Austin Reed pass incomplete

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+14 ydsPPA -2.53

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 14 yds Malachi Corley fumbled, recovered by TROY Keyshawn Swanson

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Kimani Vidal run for 15 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 48

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 50 yds

3rd & 8Sack-11 ydsPPA -1.36

Gunnar Watson sacked by Deante McCray for a loss of 11 yards to the TROY 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 6 yds to the WKU 19

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Austin Reed pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Austin Reed pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Tom Ellard punt for 38 yds , returns for no gain to the TROY 44

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.26

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 9 yds to the WKU 47

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.31

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.23

Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the WKU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.85

Gunnar Watson sacked by Deante McCray for 0 yards to the WKU 40

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +4.03

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 40 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 27

3rd & 8Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.31

Gunnar Watson sacked by Terrion Thompson for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 23

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 38 yds , returns for no gain to the WKU 38

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Chris Lewis run for 1 yd to the WKU 37

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the WKU 35

3rd & 7Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.61

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 16 yds to the WKU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Kimani Vidal run for 19 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

L.T. Sanders run for 1 yd to the WKU 24

2nd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.09

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 17 yds to the WKU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.65

Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 23 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Malachi Corley run for 6 yds to the TROY 30

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.05

Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the TROY 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Austin Reed pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 4 yds to the TROY 22

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +3.26

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 22 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 28

2nd & 7Penalty+11 yds

Western Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Upton Stout) to the TROY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 5 yds to the TROY 44

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.13

Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the WKU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Damien Taylor for 4 yds to the WKU 43

2nd & 6Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.22

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 32 yds to the WKU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the WKU 10

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the WKU 4

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

Troy Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the WKU 9

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+26 yds

Scott Taylor Renfroe 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.66

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 31 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 6 yds to the TROY 38

2nd & 4Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +1.65

Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 35 yds to the TROY 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Penalty-5 yds

Western Kentucky Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Davion Ervin-Poindexter) to the TROY 8

1st & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Austin Reed pass incomplete

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Austin Reed pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 2 yds to the TROY 6

4th & 6Field Goal Good+24 yds

Lucas Carneiro 24 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Cory Munson kickoff for 61 yds , return for no gain to the TROY 10

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.40

Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 9

2nd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 5 yds to the TROY 14

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 5 yds to the TROY 19

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Robert Cole punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Austin Reed pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.06

Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 13 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Austin Reed pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.86

Austin Reed run for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 44

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Austin Reed pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Tom Ellard punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 11

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.10

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 30 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Damien Taylor run for 7 yds to the TROY 48

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.35

Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the WKU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the WKU 46

2nd & 9Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.84

Gunnar Watson run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line Gunnar Watson fumbled, recovered by TROY Gunnar Watson , return to the 50 yard line

3rd & 13Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.64

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 29 yds to the WKU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the WKU 13

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the WKU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.81

Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Austin Reed pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 4 yds to the WKU 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Austin Reed pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Austin Reed pass incomplete

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.16

Austin Reed pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the WKU 27

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+27 ydsPPA -3.93

Kimani Vidal run for 27 yds Kimani Vidal fumbled, recovered by WKU

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 22

2nd & 8Penalty+11 yds

REED, Austin pass to the right incomplete intended for KEY, Aaron thrown to the WKU31. PENALTY TRO Pass Interference on STEWARD, Reddy enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the WKU33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Austin Reed pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.46

Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 16 yds to the WKU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

REED, Austin pass to the right complete for -4 yards to ERVIN-POINDEXTER, Davion caught at the WKU45 and advanced to the WKU45 (MCDONALD, Jayden). PENALTY TRO Roughing the Passer on JIBUNOR, Richard enforced 15 yards from the WKU49 to the TRO36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.48

Austin Reed pass complete to Moussa Barry for 24 yds to the TROY 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 12 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.52

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 28 yds to the WKU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKU 45

2nd & 11Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Gunnar Watson run for 9 yds to the WKU 36

3rd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.90

Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the WKU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.49

[NHSG] Kneel down by WATSON, Gunnar at WKU28 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Western Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
43%
23 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
50%
8 plays
38%
8 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

Troy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
27%
33 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
33%
15 plays
100%
4 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
40%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play