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← Back to GamesSep 23, 2023Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Maryland by 2.9

Home Win Probability

Michigan State 39%

Market (Bovada)

Michigan State +7.5

Edge: Michigan State +7.5 (4.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 23, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
MarylandMaryland
71401031
Michigan StateMichigan State
03609

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-70-143-219-219-249-31
Michigan StateMaryland

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSMARMSMARMSMARMSMARMSMARMSMARMSMARMSMARMSMARMSMARMARMSTO726ydTD945ydDOWNS1568ydTD1195ydTO27ydTD532ydFG1056ydPUNT34ydMISS1145ydMISS1053ydTO215ydTO834ydTD980ydPUNT35ydPUNT37ydPUNT627ydPUNT3-10ydFG42ydTO1282ydTD781ydMISS49ydEND416yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Maryland and Michigan State
StatisticMarylandMichigan State
Passing21-3626-44
Pass Yards223274
Rush Yards139102
Total Yards362376
Turnovers15
3rd Down6-155-13
Penalties4-506-70
Possession28:3631:24

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Maryland
passing
Taulia Tagovailoa
21/36, 223 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Colby McDonald
5 CAR, 38 YDS
receiving
Tai Felton
3 REC, 67 YDS
defense
Beau Brade
0.5 TFL, 1 PD
Michigan State
passing
Noah Kim
18/32, 190 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Nathan Carter
19 CAR, 97 YDS
receiving
Montorie Foster
6 REC, 67 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Noah Kim pass complete to Nathan Carter for 7 yds to the MSU 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.05

Noah Kim run for 3 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.76

Nathan Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 36

3rd & 11Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.11

Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 15 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.24

Noah Kim pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.76

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 8 yds to the MSU 37

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.88

Antwain Littleton II run for 6 yds to the MSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the MSU 29

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.53

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 9 yds to the MSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 2 yds to the MSU 18

3rd & 8Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.30

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 17 yds to the MSU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Sean Greeley for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.56

Noah Kim sacked by Caleb Wheatland for a loss of 10 yards to the MSU 20

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Noah Kim pass incomplete

3rd & 20Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.62

Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 18 yds to the MSU 38

4th & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.15

Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.32

Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 17 yds to the MD 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MD 38

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.78

Nathan Carter run for 11 yds to the MD 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.66

Nathan Carter run for 9 yds to the MD 18

2nd & 1Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.03

Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 12 yds to the MD 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Penalty-10 yds

CARTER, Nate rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the UMD4 (GOTAY, Fa'Najae). PENALTY MSU Holding on FRANKLIN, Jaylan enforced 10 yards from the UMD6 to the UMD16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 16Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.21

Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 8 yds to the MD 8

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the MD 5

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Noah Kim run for 4 yds to the MD 1

4th & 1Rush-4 ydsPPA -4.21

Nathan Carter run for a loss of 4 yards to the MD 5

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the MD 9

2nd & 6Penalty+15 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on ADELEYE, Tunmise enforced (15 Yards) to the MD 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.80

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 11 yds to the MD 39 for a 1ST down

2nd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.01

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rico Walker for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.09

Colby McDonald run for 9 yds to the MSU 41

2nd & 1Rush+25 ydsPPA +0.18

Colby McDonald run for 25 yds to the MSU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Colby McDonald run for 4 yds to the MSU 12

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Taulia Tagovailoa run for 8 yds to the MD 47

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.94

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Noah Kim pass complete to Nathan Carter for 6 yds to the MSU 31

2nd & 4Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -1.26

Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 32 Nathan Carter fumbled, recovered by MD Donnell Brown

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Octavian Smith Jr. run for 5 yds to the MSU 27

3rd & 5Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.54

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 22 yds to the MSU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Antwain Littleton II run for 4 yds to the MSU 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Taulia Tagovailoa run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.24

Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 9 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

KIM, Noah pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BROWN, Alante thrown to the UMD40. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on COLEY JR., Corey enforced 15 yards to the UMD47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.01

Noah Kim pass complete to Nathan Carter for 9 yds to the MD 38

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MD 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.78

Nathan Carter run for 9 yds to the MD 28

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA -0.35

Nathan Carter run for 8 yds to the MD 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Noah Kim pass complete to Nathan Carter for 1 yd to the MD 19

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Noah Kim pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+37 yds

Jonathan Kim 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 3 yds to the MD 27

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Maryland Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MD 22

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Colton Spangler punt for 35 yds

3rd & 13Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.09

Taulia Tagovailoa run for 7 yds to the MD 29

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Noah Kim run for 7 yds to the MSU 33

2nd & 3Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.24

Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 3 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.00

Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 10 yds to the MSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.17

Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 18 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-10 ydsPPA -2.77

Noah Kim run for no gain to the MD 36 Michigan State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MD 46

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 20Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Noah Kim pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 2 yds to the MD 44

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Noah Kim pass incomplete

4th & 18Penalty+15 yds

Maryland Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MD 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 10Blocked Field Goal+46 yds

Jonathan Kim 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete

4th & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.43

Colton Spangler run for 14 yds to the MD 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MD 40

2nd & 9Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +3.11

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 38 yds to the MSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.52

Roman Hemby run for no gain to the MSU 22

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+40 yds

Jack Howes 40 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.22

Nathan Carter run for 15 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.95

Noah Kim pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Antwain Littleton II run for 7 yds to the MSU 34

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the MSU 32

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.43

Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.69

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Preston Howard for 9 yds to the MSU 21

2nd & 1Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA -0.30

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 12 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Antwain Littleton II run for 1 yd to the MSU 8

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the MSU 7

3rd & 7Interception0 ydsPPA -4.12

Taulia Tagovailoa pass intercepted, touchback.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the MSU 25

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 29

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.78

Noah Kim run for 2 yds to the MSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.60

Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 33 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 7 yds to the MD 29

3rd & 3Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.81

Nathan Carter run for 19 yds to the MD 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MD 9

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.74

Tyrell Henry 9 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the MD 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MD 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Colton Spangler punt for 52 yds, downed at the MSU 18

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Noah Kim run for 7 yds to the MSU 25

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Noah Kim pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Noah Kim pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the MD 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 4 yds to the MD 37

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.12

Antwain Littleton II run for 6 yds to the MD 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.22

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 16 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MSU 40

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Colton Spangler punt for 40 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Noah Kim pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 6 yds to the MSU 26

3rd & 4Sack-16 ydsPPA -0.59

Noah Kim sacked for a loss of 16 yards to the MSU 10

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 22 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 3 yds to the MSU 29

3rd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.14

Colby McDonald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 30

4th & 8Field Goal Good+48 yds

Jack Howes 48 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Jack Howes kickoff for 65 yds , return for no gain to the MSU 10

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.81

Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 11 yds to the MSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.59

Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for no gain to the MSU 21

2nd & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.46

Katin Houser sacked by Kellan Wyatt and Caleb Wheatland for a loss of 11 yards to the MSU 10

3rd & 21Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.37

Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 19 yds to the MSU 29

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.49

Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Katin Houser pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.77

Katin Houser pass complete to Antonio Gates Jr. for 28 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.40

Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 11 yds to the MD 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 6 yds to the MD 23

2nd & 4Penalty+15 yds

HOUSER, Katin pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GATES JR., Antonio thrown to the UMD0. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on SHEPPARD, Jaquan enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the UMD8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 8Interception0 ydsPPA -4.68

Katin Houser pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Antwain Littleton II run for 3 yds to the MD 22

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 5 yds to the MD 27

3rd & 2Penalty+15 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (Malik Spencer) to the MSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MSU 38

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the MSU 34

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Taulia Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the MSU 31

4th & 1Passing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +4.11

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 31 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Jack Howes kickoff for 65 yds , return for no gain to the MSU 21

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.80

Roman Hemby run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 25

2nd & 14Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 5 yds to the MSU 20

3rd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.36

Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 8 yds to the MSU 12

4th & 1Field Goal Missed+29 yds

Jack Howes 29 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Sam Leavitt run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 19

2nd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 5 yds to the MSU 24

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Antonio Gates Jr. for 4 yds to the MSU 28

4th & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.88

Sam Leavitt run for 8 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Maryland

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
21%
24 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
43%
14 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
29%
7 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
44%
32 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
29%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
55%
11 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
75%
4 plays