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← Back to GamesSep 17, 2023Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

New Mexico State by 3.6

Home Win Probability

New Mexico 34%

Market (Bovada)

New Mexico -3

Edge: New Mexico State +3 (6.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 17, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
New Mexico StateNew Mexico State
0173727
New MexicoNew Mexico
370717

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-710-710-1010-1710-2017-2017-27
New MexicoNew Mexico State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NMNMSNMNMSNMNMSNMNMSNMNMSNMNMSNMNMSNMNMSNMNMSFG1278ydPUNT38ydTO867ydTD1088ydTD775ydFG866ydPUNT3-11ydTD663ydEND521ydPUNT35ydPUNT510ydFG1261ydTD1175ydTD175ydPUNT410ydPUNT39ydMISS1875ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing New Mexico State and New Mexico
StatisticNew Mexico StateNew Mexico
Passing10-1520-39
Pass Yards220247
Rush Yards177154
Total Yards397401
Turnovers01
3rd Down2-76-12
Penalties7-767-55
Possession27:5332:07

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

New Mexico State
passing
Diego Pavia
9/14, 203 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Diego Pavia
11 CAR, 96 YDS
receiving
Jonathan Brady
3 REC, 109 YDS, 2 TD
defense
New Mexico
passing
Dylan Hopkins
20/39, 247 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Jacory Merritt
16 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jeremiah Hixon
5 REC, 45 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Ethan Albertson kickoff for 65 yds , return for no gain to the UNM 15

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.21

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Sherod White for 13 yds to the UNM 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.17

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNM 24

2nd & 14Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.18

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 3 yds to the NMSU 47

2nd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.32

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 14 yds to the NMSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Dorian Lewis run for 7 yds to the NMSU 26

2nd & 3Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.33

Dorian Lewis run for 19 yds to the NMSU 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Penalty+6 yds

(10:06) CROSKEY-MERRITT, Jacory rush to the right for a loss of 6 yards to the NMS13 (WEBB, Sterling), clock 10:02. PENALTY NMS Holding enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the NMS7 to the NMS4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 3Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.45

Dylan Hopkins sacked by Gabriel Iniguez for a loss of 9 yards to the NMSU 12

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 5 yds to the NMSU 7

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+25 yds

Luke Drzewiecki 25 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Luke Drzewiecki kickoff for 62 yds , return for no gain to the NMSU 10

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMSU 13

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 7Penalty+5 yds

(07:26) HAYNES, Zach punt 49 yards to the UNM38, WYSONG, Luke returned 18 yards to the NMS44 (EBERLE, Charlie), clock 07:20. PENALTY UNM Running Into the kicker on GAINER, Destin enforced 5 yards from the NMS13 to the NMS18. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 52 yds , Luke Wysong returns for no gain to the UNM 21

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.24

Dylan Hopkins run for 17 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 8 yds to the UNM 46

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.08

Sherod White run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.35

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jacory Croskey-Merritt for 31 yds to the NMSU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+7 ydsPPA -4.40

Sherod White run for 7 yds to the NMSU 12 Sherod White fumbled, recovered by NMSU Dylan Early

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

(03:49) PAVIA, Diego pass to the right incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell broken up by MARTIN, Donte at the NMS25, clock 03:44. PENALTY NMS Holding on VAIPULU, AJ enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the NMS12 to the NMS6 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 16Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.33

Star Thomas run for 15 yds to the NMSU 21

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -0.97

Eli Stowers run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMSU 18 Eli Stowers fumbled, recovered by NMSU

2nd & 15Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.19

Monte Watkins run for 8 yds to the NMSU 26

3rd & 7Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.51

Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 29 yds to the UNM 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the UNM 39

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordan Smith for 6 yds to the UNM 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNM 30

2nd & 7Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.89

Diego Pavia pass complete to Ron Tiavaasue for 28 yds to the UNM 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 14 yds to the UNM 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.62

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNM 36

2nd & 13Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +3.81

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Luke Wysong for 41 yds to the NMSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.98

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 19 yds to the NMSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 3 yds to the NMSU 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Justin Holaday run for no gain to the NMSU 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 19 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +1.56

Diego Pavia run for 26 yds to the UNM 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the UNM 27

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.41

Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the UNM 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Monte Watkins run for 4 yds to the UNM 13

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNM 9

4th & 2Field Goal Good+26 yds

Ethan Albertson 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.84

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 25

2nd & 11Penalty-10 yds

(03:38) HOPKINS, Dylan pass to the right complete for 5 yards to HIXON, Jeremiah caught at the UNM21 and advanced to the UNM30 (PETERSON, Gabe;ROWSER, Myles), clock 03:32. PENALTY UNM Illegal Block in the Back on ERICKSON, Andrew enforced 10 yards from the UNM25 to the UNM15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 21Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

3rd & 21Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.02

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 48 yds, downed at the NMSU 37

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the NMSU 44

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.86

Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the UNM 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the UNM 48

2nd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.78

Eli Stowers pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 17 yds to the UNM 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +2.84

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 31 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.54

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 10 yds to the UNM 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.07

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Duece Jones for 11 yds to the UNM 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 3 yds to the NMSU 28

2nd & 7Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.75

Diego Pavia sacked by Kyler Drake and Alec Marenco for a loss of 3 yards to the NMSU 25

3rd & 10Penalty0 yds

(13:23) PAVIA, Diego pass short to the right complete for 19 yards to HUDSON, Trent caught at the NMS29 and advanced to the NMS44 (MORRIS, Zach), out of bounds, clock 13:17. PENALTY NMS Chop Block on JONES, Jamoni enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the NMS25 to the NMS13 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 22Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.27

Diego Pavia run for 17 yds to the NMSU 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 56 yds, downed at the UNM 40

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 5 yds to the UNM 45

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.10

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 9 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.93

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to D.J. Washington for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

3rd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.54

Dylan Hopkins run for no gain to the 50 yard line

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordan Smith for 4 yds to the NMSU 13

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.54

Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 8 yds to the NMSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the NMSU 26

2nd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.19

Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the NMSU 46

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.13

Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the UNM 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the UNM 38

2nd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.03

Monte Watkins run for 10 yds to the UNM 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the UNM 24

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the UNM 24

3rd & 6Penalty0 yds

(02:15) PAVIA, Diego pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Trent broken up by MORRIS, Zach at the UNM0, clock 02:10. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on MORRIS, Zach NMS Personal Foul on TIAVAASUE, Ron UNM Personal Foul on MORENCO, Alec UNM Pass Interference on MORRIS, Zach , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 6Penalty-15 yds

PAVIA, Diego pass up the middle complete for 9 yards to BRADY, Jonathan caught at the UNM17 and advanced to the UNM15 (SMITH, Aaron), clock 02:04. PENALTY NMS Pass Interference on WHITFORD, Thomaz enforced 15 yards to the UNM39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 21Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.81

Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the UNM 30

4th & 12Field Goal Good+47 yds

Ethan Albertson 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 8 yds to the UNM 33

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.21

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 5 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 11 yds to the UNM 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.68

Dorian Lewis run for 10 yds to the NMSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.43

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Duece Jones for 11 yds to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

(13:57) QB Keeper HOPKINS, Dylan rush to the left for no gain to the NMS30 (SELDON, Andre), clock 13:47. PENALTY NMS Personal Foul on ELLIOT, Keyshaun enforced 15 yards from the NMS30 to the NMS15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 1 yd to the NMSU 14

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.31

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Dorian Lewis for 8 yds to the NMSU 6

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.29

Dorian Lewis run for 4 yds to the NMSU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Dorian Lewis run for 1 yd to the NMSU 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Dorian Lewis run for no gain to the NMSU 1

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.08

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 75 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 15 yds to the UNM 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.19

Dorian Lewis run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNM 35

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Monte Watkins run for 4 yds to the UNM 49

2nd & 6Penalty+5 yds

(07:39) WATKINS, Monte rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the UNM46 (POLA-GATES, Noa), out of bounds, clock 07:32. PENALTY UNM Offsides on LOPEZ, Gabriel enforced 5 yards from the UNM49 to the UNM44 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.23

Star Thomas run for no gain to the UNM 44

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.20

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Zach Haynes punt for 31 yds, downed at the UNM 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 5 yds to the UNM 18

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 4 yds to the UNM 22

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.83

Dorian Lewis run for 6 yds to the UNM 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

New Mexico Penalty, False Start (Ryan Davis) to the UNM 23

1st & 15Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.51

Dylan Hopkins run for 8 yds to the UNM 31

2nd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.24

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 7 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Dorian Lewis run for 2 yds to the UNM 40

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

4th & 8Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.79

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to D.J. Washington for 20 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.25

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Ryan Davis for 11 yds to the NMSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.46

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for 11 yds to the NMSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

New Mexico Penalty, False Start (Shancco Matautia) to the NMSU 23

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete

2nd & 15Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.41

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Duece Jones for 9 yds to the NMSU 14

3rd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Dorian Lewis for 2 yds to the NMSU 12

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+29 yds

Luke Drzewiecki 29 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

(00:46) [SG] Kneel down by NMS at NMS19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:22.

Situational Analysis

New Mexico State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
40%
20 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
4th

New Mexico

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
39%
28 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
67%
12 plays
67%
6 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
0%
1 play
50%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play