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← Back to GamesSep 16, 2023Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan by 29.3

Home Win Probability

Michigan 96%

Market (Bovada)

Michigan -41

Edge: Bowling Green +41 (11.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 16, 2023

Line Movement

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Bowling GreenBowling Green
06006
MichiganMichigan
7717031

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-37-614-624-631-6
MichiganBowling Green

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BGMICBGMICBGBGMICBGMICBGMICBGMICBGMICBGMICBGMICBGMICBGMICBGMICPUNT424ydTD477ydPUNT3-4ydTO738ydFG1262ydFG49ydTO525ydPUNT3-1ydTD567ydTO516ydPUNT3-10ydEND1-1ydPUNT38ydTO10ydTD12ydTO21ydFG42ydPUNT34ydTD361ydPUNT31ydTO628ydPUNT932ydPUNT36ydMISS1047ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Bowling Green and Michigan
StatisticBowling GreenMichigan
Passing14-218-13
Pass Yards124143
Rush Yards79169
Total Yards203312
Turnovers34
3rd Down5-151-5
Penalties2-151-10
Possession36:2423:36

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Bowling Green
passing
Camden Orth
8/11, 91 YDS
rushing
Nick Mosley
4 CAR, 33 YDS
receiving
Odieu Hilaire
2 REC, 37 YDS
defense
Michigan
passing
J.J. McCarthy
8/13, 143 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Blake Corum
12 CAR, 101 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Cornelius Johnson
3 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.60

Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 30 yds to the MICH 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 4 yds to the MICH 41

2nd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 2 yds to the MICH 39

3rd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)-12 ydsPPA -2.84

Camden Orth run for a loss of 12 yards to the BGSU 49 Camden Orth fumbled, recovered by BGSU Camden Orth

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 28 yds

1st & 10Rush+54 ydsPPA +3.55

Blake Corum run for 54 yds to the BGSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.13

Donovan Edwards run for 11 yds to the BGSU 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

J.J. McCarthy run for 8 yds to the BGSU 4

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.08

Blake Corum run for 4 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Camden Orth pass complete to Levi Gazarek for 1 yd to the BGSU 26

2nd & 9Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.65

Camden Orth sacked by Mike Sainristil for a loss of 7 yards to the BGSU 19

3rd & 16Penalty-5 yds

Bowling Green Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Illegal Forward Pass on ORTH, Camden enforced (-5 Yards) to the BGSU 21

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.54

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 13 yds to the BGSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the BGSU 29

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.63

Donovan Edwards run for 10 yds to the BGSU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.62

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 9 yds to the BGSU 10

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BGSU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the BGSU 5

2nd & 5Interception0 ydsPPA -4.56

J.J. McCarthy pass intercepted, touchback.

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Terion Stewart run for no gain to the BGSU 20

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Camden Orth pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.59

Camden Orth pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 33 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.69

Camden Orth sacked by Cam Goode for a loss of 8 yards to the BGSU 45

2nd & 18Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Camden Orth pass complete to Levi Gazarek for 3 yds to the BGSU 48

3rd & 15Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.50

Camden Orth pass complete to Levi Gazarek for 15 yds to the MICH 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Camden Orth pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.08

Ta'ron Keith run for 11 yds to the MICH 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Camden Orth pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Camden Orth run for 5 yds to the MICH 21

3rd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 3 yds to the MICH 18

4th & 2Field Goal Good+36 yds

Alan Anaya 36 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Jackson Kleather kickoff for 42 yds , return for no gain to the MICH 33

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the MICH 30

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Jaison Patterson run for 6 yds to the MICH 24

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim run for no gain to the MICH 24

4th & 1Field Goal Good+42 yds

Alan Anaya 42 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Jackson Kleather kickoff for 28 yds , return for no gain to the MICH 37

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 39

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.61

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 8 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.18

Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the BGSU 44

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.18

Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the BGSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.91

J.J. McCarthy pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Hayden Timosciek pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 2 yds to the BGSU 36

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

(08:16) STEWART, Terion rush to the left for no gain to the BGS36 (SAINRISTIL, Mike), clock 08:10. PENALTY BGS Holding on STEWART, Kameren enforced 10 yards from the BGS36 to the BGS26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Hayden Timosciek pass incomplete

3rd & 18Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.06

Ta'ron Keith run for 7 yds to the BGSU 33

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the MICH 39

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 42

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.20

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.37

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 22 yds to the BGSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.90

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 33 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Hayden Timosciek run for 2 yds to the BGSU 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.29

Hayden Timosciek pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 8 yds to the BGSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Hayden Timosciek run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 34

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Hayden Timosciek pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 7 yds to the BGSU 41

3rd & 4Interception0 ydsPPA -0.99

Hayden Timosciek pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 48

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

3rd & 7Sack-13 ydsPPA -1.51

J.J. McCarthy sacked by Darren Anders for a loss of 13 yards to the MICH 35

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

(00:23) [NH] Kneel down by TIMOSCIEK, Hayden at BGS17 (team loss of 1), clock 00:20.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 26

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.30

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 2 yds to the MICH 28

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

J.J. McCarthy run for 4 yds to the MICH 32

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 53 yds

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.38

Hayden Timosciek pass intercepted

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Blake Corum run for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Hayden Timosciek run for no gain to the BGSU 25

2nd & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Hayden Timosciek sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 26

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(11:53) MCCARTHY, J.J. scrambles to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the BGS20 (HARDAMON, Demetrius), clock 11:46. PENALTY MIC Holding on BARNER, AJ enforced 10 yards from the BGS26 to the BGS36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

2nd & 20Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 6 yds to the BGSU 30

3rd & 14Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the BGSU 24

4th & 8Field Goal Good+42 yds

James Turner 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Terion Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 24

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Terion Stewart run for 3 yds to the BGSU 27

3rd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BGSU 29

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 32 yds

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the MICH 47

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.01

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+50 ydsPPA +3.84

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 50 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jaison Patterson run for 1 yd to the BGSU 26

2nd & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.51

Jamal Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BGSU 24

3rd & 11Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Hayden Timosciek pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 2 yds to the BGSU 26

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the MICH 45

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.17

Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Alex Orji run for 3 yds to the BGSU 47

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.09

Alex Orji run for 8 yds to the BGSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Semaj Morgan run for 4 yds to the BGSU 35

2nd & 6Interception0 ydsPPA -3.77

J.J. McCarthy pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

PaSean Wimberly run for no gain to the BGSU 20

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.29

PaSean Wimberly run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 19

3rd & 11Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.63

PaSean Wimberly run for 12 yds to the BGSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.68

PaSean Wimberly run for 7 yds to the BGSU 38

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.17

Jamal Johnson run for no gain to the BGSU 38

3rd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.26

Hayden Timosciek pass complete to Finn Hogan for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Nick Mosley run for 2 yds to the MICH 48

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Hayden Timosciek pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Nick Mosley run for no gain to the MICH 48

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 48 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Cole Cabana run for 5 yds to the MICH 25

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Cole Cabana run for 1 yd to the MICH 26

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Leon Franklin run for no gain to the MICH 26

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BGSU 35

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

PaSean Wimberly run for 2 yds to the BGSU 37

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.58

PaSean Wimberly run for 7 yds to the BGSU 44

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.20

Jamal Johnson run for 3 yds to the BGSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Hayden Timosciek pass complete to Jhaylin Embry for 2 yds to the BGSU 49

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.41

Nick Mosley run for 8 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +0.73

Nick Mosley run for 23 yds to the MICH 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.46

PaSean Wimberly run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 21

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

PaSean Wimberly run for 5 yds to the MICH 16

3rd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.81

PaSean Wimberly run for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 18

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+36 yds

Alan Anaya 36 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

(00:11) [SG] Kneel down by DENEGAL, Jayden at MIC18 (team loss of 2), clock 00:09.

Situational Analysis

Bowling Green

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
13%
23 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
50%
12 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
4th

Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
59%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
40%
5 plays
0%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
4th