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← Back to GamesSep 2, 2023Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Wisconsin by 10.1

Home Win Probability

Wisconsin 74%

Market (consensus)

Wisconsin -24

Edge: Buffalo +24 (13.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 2, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BuffaloBuffalo
730717
WisconsinWisconsin
77141038

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-07-714-1028-1031-1038-17
WisconsinBuffalo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20WISBUFWISBUFWISBUFWISBUFWISBUFWISBUFWISBUFWISBUFWISBUFWISBUFWISBUFWISBUFWISBUFWISBUFWISPUNT514ydPUNT36ydTD1173ydTD565ydPUNT518ydDOWNS1045ydTO36ydMISS40ydPUNT633ydPUNT516ydPUNT415ydPUNT34ydTD655ydFG740ydEND1-1ydPUNT419ydPUNT34ydPUNT53ydTD189ydPUNT516ydTD897ydPUNT3-15ydFG631ydDOWNS935ydTO31ydTD311ydTD346ydDOWNS731ydEND622yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Buffalo and Wisconsin
StatisticBuffaloWisconsin
Passing26-4124-31
Pass Yards194189
Rush Yards122314
Total Yards316503
Turnovers02
3rd Down2-154-12
Penalties6-703-30
Possession29:3430:26

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Buffalo
passing
Cole Snyder
26/41, 194 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Michael Washington
12 CAR, 52 YDS
receiving
Darrell Harding Jr.
1 REC, 51 YDS
defense
Wisconsin
passing
Tanner Mordecai
24/31, 189 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Chez Mellusi
13 CAR, 157 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Will Pauling
5 REC, 55 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Braelon Allen run for 9 yds to the WIS 34

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the WIS 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Tanner Mordecai run for 2 yds to the WIS 42

3rd & 8Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.74

Tanner Mordecai sacked by Caleb Offord for a loss of 3 yards to the WIS 39

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Atticus Bertrams punt for 35 yds, downed at the BUFF 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Cole Snyder pass complete to Jake Orlando for 5 yds to the BUFF 31

2nd & 5Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.07

Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for a loss of 3 yards to the BUFF 28

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Cole Snyder run for 4 yds to the BUFF 32

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.18

Chez Mellusi run for 13 yds to the WIS 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the WIS 43

2nd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.35

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Bryson Green for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the BUFF 49

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.62

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 11 yds to the BUFF 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Braelon Allen for 4 yds to the BUFF 34

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.54

Braelon Allen run for 13 yds to the BUFF 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.44

Chez Mellusi run for 14 yds to the BUFF 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the BUFF 5

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the BUFF 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the BUFF 40

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the BUFF 41

3rd & 4Pass Reception+51 ydsPPA +3.69

Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 51 yds to the WIS 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the WIS 7

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Skyler Bell for 6 yds to the WIS 31

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.69

Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the WIS 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Braelon Allen for 2 yds to the WIS 39

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Braelon Allen for 7 yds to the WIS 46

3rd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.53

Braelon Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the WIS 43

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Atticus Bertrams punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 9 yds to the BUFF 24

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.12

Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUFF 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 3 yds to the BUFF 32

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.27

Ron Cook Jr. run for 7 yds to the BUFF 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cameron Ball for 7 yds to the BUFF 46

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.39

Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the WIS 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cameron Ball for 2 yds to the WIS 47

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Mike Washington run for 7 yds to the WIS 40

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -2.05

Cole Snyder run for no gain to the WIS 40

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Chez Mellusi run for 6 yds to the WIS 46

3rd & 4Interception0 ydsPPA -1.41

Tanner Mordecai pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Mike Washington run for no gain to the WIS 16

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+34 yds

Alex McNulty 34 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the WIS 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Bryson Green for 4 yds to the WIS 27

3rd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.94

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 13 yds to the WIS 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.99

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Bryson Green for 11 yds to the BUFF 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Braelon Allen for 5 yds to the BUFF 44

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

QB Keeper MORDECAI, Tanner rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the BUF42, End of Play. PENALTY Before the snap, WIS Delay Of Game on BOWDEN, Peter enforced 5 yards from the end of the play at the BUF42 to the BUF47. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Atticus Bertrams punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the BUFF 11

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the BUFF 16

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Cole Snyder pass complete to Zion Carter for 7 yds to the BUFF 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Cole Snyder pass complete to Micah Woods for 4 yds to the BUFF 27

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 54 yds

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.68

Chez Mellusi run for 19 yds to the WIS 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the WIS 43

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the right complete for 2 yards to PAULING, Will caught at the WIS43 and advanced to the WIS45 (GRANT, Devin). PENALTY WIS Holding on NELSON, Jack enforced 10 yards from the WIS43 to the WIS33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 20Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 6 yds to the WIS 39

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Atticus Bertrams punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the BUFF 13

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the BUFF 18

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the BUFF 22

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Mike Washington run for no gain to the BUFF 22

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

Buffalo Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BUFF 17

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the WIS 45

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the WIS 48

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the BUFF 48

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.39

Tanner Mordecai run for 3 yds to the BUFF 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the BUFF 41

2nd & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.80

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tucker Ashcraft for 12 yds to the BUFF 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +2.79

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Chimere Dike for 29 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Buffalo Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the BUFF 20

1st & 15Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.07

Mike Washington run for 11 yds to the BUFF 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.37

Cole Snyder pass complete to Jake Orlando for 13 yds to the BUFF 44 for a 1ST down

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.23

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 17 yds to the WIS 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the WIS 35

4th & 6Field Goal Good+53 yds

Alex McNulty 53 yd FG GOOD

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

[NH] Kneel down by MORDECAI, Tanner at WIS24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.81

Mike Washington run for 11 yds to the BUFF 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the BUFF 35

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 5 yds to the BUFF 40

3rd & 2Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.82

Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for no gain to the BUFF 40

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 60 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the WIS 21

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 5 yds to the WIS 26

3rd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.42

Tanner Mordecai run for a loss of 2 yards to the WIS 24

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Atticus Bertrams punt for 33 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUFF 48

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.81

Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 6 yds to the WIS 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 5 yds to the WIS 41

2nd & 5Penalty-15 yds

Buffalo Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the BUFF 46

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+89 ydsPPA +6.76

Chez Mellusi run for 89 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.93

Ron Cook Jr. run for 14 yds to the BUFF 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 6 yds to the BUFF 45

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.73

Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUFF 47

3rd & 2Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.76

Ron Cook Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the BUFF 41

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 56 yds, downed at the WIS 3

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the WIS 6

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the WIS 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the WIS 16

2nd & 7Penalty+15 yds

Buffalo Penalty, Personal Foul (Clevester Hines III) to the WIS 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.70

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 20 yds to the BUFF 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+37 ydsPPA +2.24

Braelon Allen run for 37 yds to the BUFF 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Braelon Allen run for 6 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Buffalo Penalty, Personal Foul (TEAM) to the BUFF 16

1st & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

2nd & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

3rd & 25Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.02

Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for no gain to the BUFF 16

4th & 25Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the BUFF 48

2nd & 8Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.79

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tucker Ashcraft for 24 yds to the BUFF 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the BUFF 20

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the BUFF 20

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Bryson Green for 1 yd to the BUFF 19

4th & 5Field Goal Good+37 yds

Nathanial Vakos 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for a loss of 3 yards to the BUFF 22

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.09

Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 7 yds to the BUFF 29

4th & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.01

Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 7 yds to the BUFF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.38

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 15 yds to the WIS 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Ron Cook Jr. run for 8 yds to the WIS 41

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the WIS 40

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

run for no gain to the WIS 40

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -2.05

Cole Snyder run for no gain to the WIS 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Braelon Allen for 2 yds to the WIS 42

2nd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.07

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Braelon Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the WIS 41

3rd & 9Interception0 ydsPPA -0.49

Tanner Mordecai pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.26

Ron Cook Jr. run for 8 yds to the WIS 3

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.55

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.73

Braelon Allen run for 16 yds to the BUFF 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.51

Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the BUFF 22

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.30

Braelon Allen run for 22 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the BUFF 28

2nd & 7Penalty+15 yds

Wisconsin Penalty, Targeting on TURNER, Jordan enforced (Jordan Turner) to the BUFF 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Cole Snyder pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for 2 yds to the WIS 49

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Jacqez Barksdale run for 7 yds to the WIS 42

4th & 1Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.85

Cole Snyder pass complete to Nik McMillan for 13 yds to the WIS 29 Buffalo Penalty, Personal Foul (Marlyn Johnson) to the WIS 44

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.39

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jackson Acker run for 4 yds to the WIS 48

2nd & 6Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -2.02

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tanner Mordecai for a loss of 5 yards to the WIS 43

3rd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +3.07

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 12 yds to the BUFF 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.50

Jackson Acker run for 10 yds to the BUFF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Jackson Acker run for 1 yd to the BUFF 34

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87

Jackson Acker run for no gain to the BUFF 34

Situational Analysis

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
52%
25 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
50%
10 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
4 plays
100%
1 play

Wisconsin

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
35%
34 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
50%
6 plays
64%
14 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
75%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
4th