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← Back to GamesAug 31, 2023Week 1
NC StateNC State
24
-Final
14
UConnUConn

House Prediction

Model Margin

NC State by 4.6

Home Win Probability

UConn 37%

Market (consensus)

UConn +16.5

Edge: UConn +16.5 (11.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Aug 31, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NC StateNC State
7314024
UConnUConn
707014

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-77-107-1714-24
UConnNC State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20UCONSUCONSUCONSUCONSNSUCONSUCONSUCONSUCONSUCONSTD1275ydTD966ydPUNT519ydPUNT614ydPUNT623ydMISS1148ydPUNT33ydFG1259ydPUNT513ydPUNT819ydTD1191ydTD171ydTD427ydPUNT3-1ydDOWNS622ydPUNT68ydPUNT833ydTO941ydEND22yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing NC State and UConn
StatisticNC StateUConn
Passing17-2614-27
Pass Yards155113
Rush Yards209160
Total Yards364273
Turnovers01
3rd Down8-154-12
Penalties1-56-61
Possession34:0026:00

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

NC State
passing
Brennan Armstrong
17/26, 155 YDS
rushing
Brennan Armstrong
19 CAR, 96 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Kevin Concepcion
4 REC, 36 YDS
defense
Payton Wilson
1 TFL, 1 PD
UConn
passing
Joe Fagnano
14/26, 113 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Victor Rosa
9 CAR, 99 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Justin Joly
4 REC, 38 YDS
defense
Jackson Mitchell
1.5 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Devontae Houston run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Geordon Porter for 6 yds to the CONN 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.37

Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Cameron Ross for 14 yds to the CONN 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Devontae Houston run for 2 yds to the CONN 46

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Geordon Porter for 6 yds to the NCSU 48

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the NCSU 47

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.14

Joseph Fagnano run for 2 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Alexander Honig pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.50

Joseph Fagnano run for 10 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Victor Rosa run for 4 yds to the NCSU 31

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.45

Joseph Fagnano run for 13 yds to the NCSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Victor Rosa run for 18 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.41

Jordan Houston run for 15 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.78

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 12 yds to the CONN 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the CONN 34

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the CONN 30

3rd & 1Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.59

Delbert Mimms III run for 16 yds to the CONN 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the CONN 11

2nd & 7Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jordan Houston for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 12

3rd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.35

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 8 yds to the CONN 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Brian Brewton run for 8 yds to the CONN 33

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.21

Brian Brewton run for 5 yds to the CONN 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Brian Brewton run for 6 yds to the CONN 44

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.22

Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

George Caratan punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 5 yds to the NCSU 17

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.01

Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the NCSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the NCSU 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Brett Buckman for 7 yds to the CONN 36

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Devontae Houston run for 8 yds to the CONN 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.83

Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Devontae Houston for 10 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Devontae Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSU 44

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

UConn Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSU 49

3rd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Joseph Fagnano run for 1 yd to the NCSU 48

4th & 12Punt0 yds

George Caratan punt for 48 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 26

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.95

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 10 yds to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Keyon Lesane run for 8 yds to the NCSU 44

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.01

Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Julian Gray for 5 yds to the CONN 48

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the CONN 46

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.58

Michael Allen run for 8 yds to the CONN 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Trent Pennix for 7 yds to the CONN 31

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CONN 36

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the CONN 30

3rd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.32

Delbert Mimms III run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 32

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+50 yds

Brayden Narveson 50 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.93

Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Justin Joly for no gain to the CONN 32

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the CONN 35

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

George Caratan punt for 50 yds, downed at the NCSU 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.61

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 11 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 32

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSU 34

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.19

Delbert Mimms III run for 3 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Julian Gray for 9 yds to the NCSU 46

2nd & 1Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.38

Jordan Houston run for 12 yds to the CONN 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.33

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 10 yds to the CONN 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 8 yds to the CONN 24

3rd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.07

Jordan Houston run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 26

4th & 4Field Goal Good+44 yds

Brayden Narveson 44 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the NCSU 38

2nd & 1Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA -0.03

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Michael Allen for 5 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Michael Allen for 3 yds to the NCSU 46

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

3rd & 7Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.06

Brennan Armstrong sacked by Noah Plack and Donovan Branch for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 42

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brett Buckman at the CONN 14

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Devontae Houston run for 3 yds to the CONN 17

3rd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.15

Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Devontae Houston for 9 yds to the CONN 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.93

Devontae Houston run for 8 yds to the CONN 34

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Devontae Houston run for 2 yds to the CONN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.86

Victor Rosa run for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 33

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

George Caratan punt for 58 yds, downed at the NCSU 9

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

ARMSTRONG, Brennan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for TIMMONS JR., Terrell thrown to the NCS49. PENALTY UCN Pass Interference on BIN-WAHAD, Mumu enforced 15 yards to the NCS24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.81

Brennan Armstrong run for 10 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.65

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 18 yds to the CONN 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.90

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Michael Allen for 19 yds to the CONN 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the CONN 24

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the CONN 22

3rd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.49

Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the CONN 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the CONN 4

2nd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.49

Delbert Mimms III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 5

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the CONN 3

4th & 2Penalty+1 yds

ARMSTRONG, Brennan pass short to the right incomplete intended for LESANE, Keyon thrown to the UCN0, clock 03:12. PENALTY UCN Pass Interference on FAUMUINA-BROWN, Tui enforced 1 yards to the UCN2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the CONN 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+71 ydsPPA +5.78

Victor Rosa run for 71 yds for a TD UConn Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Victor Rosa) to the NCSU 0 (Joe McFadden KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Joe McFadden kickoff for 62 yds , return for no gain to the CONN 27

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.32

Michael Allen run for 18 yds to the CONN 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the CONN 8

3rd & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.95

Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the CONN 27

2nd & 8Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.64

Joseph Fagnano sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 24

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

George Caratan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 32

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 38

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.86

Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the CONN 48

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the CONN 46

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.48

Delbert Mimms III run for no gain to the CONN 46

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Justin Joly for 7 yds to the NCSU 47

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.23

Victor Rosa run for no gain to the NCSU 47

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.53

Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Justin Joly for 6 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.40

Joseph Fagnano sacked by Red Hibbler for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSU 48

2nd & 17Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Joseph Fagnano run for 2 yds to the NCSU 46

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

George Caratan punt for 46 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 19

2nd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.41

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 12 yds to the NCSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the NCSU 36

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.78

Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSU 37

3rd & 4Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.52

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 14 yds to the CONN 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the CONN 44

2nd & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.82

Jordan Houston run for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 47

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Caden Noonkester punt for 47 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for 3 yds to the CONN 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for 5 yds to the CONN 28

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.42

Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the CONN 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.19

Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Justin Joly for 25 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Devontae Houston for 3 yds to the NCSU 41

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.98

Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Brett Buckman for 12 yds to the NCSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

FAGNANO, Joe pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HANSEN, Louis thrown to the NCS0. PENALTY UCN Holding on HAYNES, Christian enforced 10 yards from the NCS29 to the NCS39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Interception0 ydsPPA -2.85

Joseph Fagnano pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSU 34

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.81

[SG] Kneel down by ARMSTRONG, Brennan at NCS32 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
70%
30 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
20%
10 plays
50%
8 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
57%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
0%
1 play

UConn

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
43%
21 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
33%
9 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays