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← Back to GamesSep 2, 2023Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Liberty by 10.1

Home Win Probability

Liberty 73%

Market (Bovada)

Liberty -7

Edge: Liberty -7 (3.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 2, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Bowling GreenBowling Green
01410024
LibertyLiberty
7177334

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-024-724-1731-2434-24
LibertyBowling Green

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LIBBGLIBBGLIBBGLIBBGBGLIBBGLIBBGLIBLIBBGLIBBGLIBBGLIBBGLIBBGLIBTD971ydPUNT419ydDOWNS614ydPUNT99ydPUNT618ydPUNT35ydTD866ydTD32ydTO10ydFG46ydTD565ydTO536ydTO10ydTD527ydEND19ydFG1072ydTD775ydTD1175ydPUNT34ydTO445ydPUNT1051ydTO833ydFG614ydDOWNS4-16ydEND2-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Bowling Green and Liberty
StatisticBowling GreenLiberty
Passing11-3111-20
Pass Yards137143
Rush Yards191246
Total Yards328389
Turnovers51
3rd Down2-125-12
Penalties9-864-51
Possession27:0532:55

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Bowling Green
passing
Connor Bazelak
6/21, 71 YDS, 3 INT
rushing
Taron Keith
3 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Odieu Hilaire
4 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Liberty
passing
Kaidon Salter
11/20, 143 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Kaidon Salter
19 CAR, 82 YDS
receiving
Treon Sibley
3 REC, 56 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the LIB 29

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Smoot for 3 yds to the LIB 32

3rd & 7Rush+30 ydsPPA +3.70

Kaidon Salter run for 30 yds to the BGSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the BGSU 35

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.68

Vaughn Blue run for 12 yds to the BGSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.13

Kaidon Salter run for 11 yds to the BGSU 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -0.72

Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the BGSU 8 Liberty Penalty, Offensive Holding (Xavior Gray) to the BGSU 20

1st & 18Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.83

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 18 yds to the BGSU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Billy Lucas run for 2 yds for a TD (Teagen Lenderink KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.91

Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 17 yds to the BGSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BGSU 30

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Connor Bazelak pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Connor Bazelak pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Quinton Cooley run for 7 yds to the BGSU 43

2nd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.31

Kaidon Salter run for 9 yds to the BGSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the BGSU 31

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd to the BGSU 30

4th & 6Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.36

Kaidon Salter sacked by Anthony Hawkins for a loss of 6 yards to the BGSU 36

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

QB Keeper BAZELAK, Connor rush to the right for a gain of 14 yards to the LIB50, End of Play. PENALTY BG Holding on PADGETT, Alex enforced 10 yards from the BG36 to the BG26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Terion Stewart run for no gain to the BGSU 26

2nd & 20Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.70

Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 18 yds to the BGSU 44

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.78

Jaison Patterson run for 1 yd to the BGSU 45

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.06

Harold Fannin Jr. run for 1 yd to the BGSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Connor Bazelak pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.20

Ta'ron Keith run for 15 yds to the LIB 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 4 yds to the LIB 35

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Connor Bazelak pass incomplete

3rd & 6Penalty-15 yds

BAZELAK, Connor pass up the middle incomplete intended for FANNIN JR., Harold broken up by BOTI, Chris at the LIB35; QB hurried by . PENALTY BG Face mask on FATUKASI, Tunde enforced 15 yards from the LIB35 to the BG50 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 21Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Connor Bazelak pass incomplete

4th & 21Penalty-5 yds

Bowling Green Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BGSU 45

4th & 26Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.41

Kaidon Salter run for 9 yds to the LIB 22

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.61

Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the LIB 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Vaughn Blue run for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 23

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the LIB 28

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the LIB 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Max Morgan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BGSU 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the BGSU 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Connor Bazelak pass complete to Austin Osborne for 3 yds to the BGSU 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Connor Bazelak pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 11 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.27

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 19 yds to the BGSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.35

Quinton Cooley run for 13 yds to the BGSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the BGSU 21

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.83

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Vaughn Blue for 8 yds to the BGSU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the BGSU 12

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.78

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Vaughn Blue for 12 yds for a TD (Teagen Lenderink KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the BGSU 24

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.52

Jaison Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 23

3rd & 8Interception Return Touchdown+36 ydsPPA -6.90

Kobe Singleton 36 Yd Interception Return (Teagen Lenderink Kick)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+56 yds

Max Morgan kickoff for 56 yds , return for no gain to the BGSU 1 , return for no gain to the BGSU 1

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.01

Connor Bazelak pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Billy Lucas run for 1 yd to the BGSU 24

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

3rd & 9Penalty+5 yds

Bowling Green Penalty, Offsides (Chace Davis) to the BGSU 19

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+36 yds

Teagen Lenderink 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.40

Terion Stewart run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.03

Terion Stewart run for 20 yds to the LIB 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Terion Stewart run for 6 yds to the LIB 24

2nd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.05

PaSean Wimberly run for 10 yds to the LIB 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.55

Ta'ron Keith run for 14 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LIB 38

2nd & 7Penalty+15 yds

Bowling Green Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Dierre Kelly) to the BGSU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the BGSU 44

2nd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.92

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 11 yds to the BGSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+4 ydsPPA -4.10

Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the BGSU 29 Quinton Cooley fumbled, recovered by BGSU Jalen Huskey

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.22

Connor Bazelak pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.51

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 21 yds to the BGSU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the BGSU 13

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the BGSU 11

4th & 4Blocked Field Goal Touchdown+76 ydsPPA -10.81

Trent Simms 76 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Alan Anaya Kick)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.20

Billy Lucas run for 9 yds to the LIB 32

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Max Morgan kickoff for 65 yds , return for no gain to the BGSU 12

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.21

Jaison Patterson run for 20 yds to the BGSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.28

Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 27 yds to the LIB 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Liberty Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Quinton Reese) to the LIB 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Connor Bazelak pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.90

Terion Stewart run for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 26

3rd & 12Penalty+11 yds

BAZELAK, Connor pass deep to the right incomplete intended for OSBORNE, Austin thrown to the LIB5. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on BISHOP, Brandon enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the LIB15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.62

Connor Bazelak run for 14 yds to the LIB 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Penalty-15 yds

BAZELAK, Connor pass short to the right complete for 1 yard to BENCH, Andrew caught at the LIB0 and advanced to the LIB0, TOUCHDOWN BG, score nullified by penalty (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY BG Block below the waist on PATTERSON, Jaison enforced 15 yards from the LIB1 to the LIB16 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Connor Bazelak pass incomplete

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Connor Bazelak pass incomplete

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Connor Bazelak pass incomplete

4th & 16Field Goal Good+34 yds

Alan Anaya 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 17 yds to the LIB 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.51

Vaughn Blue run for 21 yds to the BGSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the BGSU 34

3rd & 7Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.50

Kaidon Salter run for 13 yds to the BGSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Billy Lucas run for 4 yds to the BGSU 17

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.66

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 17 yds for a TD (Teagen Lenderink KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

PaSean Wimberly run for a loss of 2 yards to the BGSU 23

2nd & 12Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.67

PaSean Wimberly run for 10 yds to the BGSU 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Camden Orth run for 1 yd to the BGSU 34

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.95

Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the BGSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.17

Camden Orth pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 13 yds to the LIB 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Camden Orth pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.82

Camden Orth run for 14 yds to the LIB 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Camden Orth run for 4 yds to the LIB 30

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Camden Orth pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.37

Camden Orth run for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 32

4th & 8Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +5.08

Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 32 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd to the LIB 26

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LIB 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Max Morgan punt for 33 yds, downed at the BGSU 38

1st & 10Rush+40 ydsPPA +2.31

Ta'ron Keith run for 40 yds to the LIB 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 3 yds to the LIB 19

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the LIB 17

3rd & 5Interception0 ydsPPA -3.99

Camden Orth pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the LIB 3

2nd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.53

Quinton Cooley run for 11 yds to the LIB 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Quinton Cooley run for 7 yds to the LIB 21

2nd & 3Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.47

Vaughn Blue run for 19 yds to the LIB 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the LIB 45

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.70

Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the LIB 47

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.59

Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the BGSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -2.36

Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 6 yards to the LIB 45

2nd & 16Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 6 yds to the BGSU 49

3rd & 10Penalty+5 yds

Bowling Green Penalty, Offsides (Anthony Hawkins) to the BGSU 44

3rd & 5Penalty-15 yds

SALTER, Kaidon pass up the middle complete for 12 yards to FRITH, Noah caught at the BG32 and advanced to the BG32, End of Play. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on SIBLEY, Treon enforced 15 yards to the LIB41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 20Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.71

Billy Lucas run for 12 yds to the BGSU 47

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Max Morgan punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BGSU 15

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Camden Orth run for 2 yds to the BGSU 17

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 6 yds to the BGSU 23

3rd & 2Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.70

Terion Stewart run for 14 yds to the BGSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Camden Orth pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.84

Camden Orth run for a loss of 2 yards to the BGSU 35

3rd & 12Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.86

Camden Orth pass complete to Austin Osborne for 12 yds to the BGSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

PaSean Wimberly run for 1 yd to the BGSU 48

2nd & 9Interception0 ydsPPA -1.99

Camden Orth pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.87

Quinton Cooley run for 10 yds to the BGSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the BGSU 19

2nd & 6Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.09

Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 5 yards to the BGSU 24

3rd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Billy Lucas run for 5 yds to the BGSU 19

4th & 6Field Goal Good+36 yds

Teagen Lenderink 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.78

Connor Bazelak sacked by Chris Boti for a loss of 6 yards to the BGSU 12

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Connor Bazelak pass incomplete

3rd & 16Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.06

Connor Bazelak sacked by Bryan Whitehead II and Chris Boti for a loss of 10 yards to the BGSU 2

4th & 26Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.41

Connor Bazelak pass incomplete

1st & 2Penalty0 yds

Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at BG1 (team loss of 1). PENALTY Before the snap, BG Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the BG2 to the BG1. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

[NH] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at BG2 (team loss of 1).

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

[NH] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at BG3 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Bowling Green

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
26 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
30%
10 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
100%
1 play
100%
1 play

Liberty

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
35%
31 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
42%
12 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
2 plays