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← Back to GamesDec 3, 2022Week 14

House Prediction

Model Margin

New Mexico State by 8.1

Home Win Probability

New Mexico State 61%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

New Mexico State -31.5

Edge: Valparaiso +31.5 (23.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 3, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Valparaiso
03003
New Mexico StateNew Mexico State
2114171365

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284256707-014-021-328-335-349-352-365-3
New Mexico StateValparaiso

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20VALNMSVALNMSVALNMSVALNMSVALNMSVALNMSVALNMSVALNMSNMSVALNMSVALNMSVALNMSVALNMSVALNMSVALNMSVALNMSPUNT619ydTD384ydPUNT622ydTD481ydPUNT35ydTD170ydFG1053ydTD274ydPUNT517ydTD775ydPUNT30ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT3-10ydPUNT510ydEND528ydPUNT36ydPUNT3-7ydTD12ydPUNT31ydTD760ydPUNT34ydFG47ydPUNT714ydTD178ydPUNT3-6ydTD444ydDOWNS1273ydTO313ydDOWNS76ydEND27yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Valparaiso and New Mexico State
StatisticValparaisoNew Mexico State
Passing21-4315-24
Pass Yards160389
Rush Yards28232
Total Yards188621
Turnovers01
3rd Down3-195-10
Penalties7-406-63
Possession40:0919:51

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Valparaiso
passing
Michael Appel Jr.
12/25, 92 YDS
rushing
Aaron Dawson
13 CAR, 17 YDS
receiving
Braden Contreras
4 REC, 40 YDS
defense
New Mexico State
passing
Diego Pavia
9/13, 323 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Star Thomas
10 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Kordell David
3 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Aaron Dawson run for 2 yds to the Valpo 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Aaron Dawson for 5 yds to the Valpo 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.28

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Jake Vickers for 14 yds to the Valpo 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Aaron Dawson run for no gain to the Valpo 46

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 6Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.51

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Izaiah Reed for a loss of 6 yards to the Valpo 44

4th & 12Punt+1 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 41 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 16

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.43

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 20 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.31

Star Thomas run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+50 ydsPPA +3.84

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 50 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Matt Ross for 9 yds to the Valpo 34

3rd & 1Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.01

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Aaron Dawson for 13 yds to the Valpo 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

run for 1 yd to the Valpo 48

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.20

Aaron Dawson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Valpo 47

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt+9 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 43 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 9 yds to the NMxSt 19

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 21

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 5 yds to the NMxSt 26

3rd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.12

Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+69 ydsPPA +5.61

Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 69 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Aaron Dawson for 2 yds to the Valpo 24

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Aaron Dawson run for 3 yds to the Valpo 27

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 30

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+70 ydsPPA +5.69

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 70 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Jordan Bingham for 9 yds to the Valpo 24

2nd & 1Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.20

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Lazarus Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Valpo 22

3rd & 3Penalty+15 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Lazarus Williams) to the Valpo 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.57

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 17 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 42

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 6Penalty+15 yds

APPEL, Mikey pass up the middle incomplete intended for DAWSON, Aaron thrown to the NMS40; QB hurried by WEBB, Sterling. PENALTY NMS Roughing the Passer on REED, Izaiah enforced 15 yards from the NMS42 to the NMS27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Michael Appel Jr. run for no gain to the NMxSt 27

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

VALPARAISO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 32

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

4th & 15Field Goal Good+49 yds

Brian Bartholomew 49 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 28

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+72 ydsPPA +6.48

Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 72 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Solomon Davis for 8 yds to the Valpo 33

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

VALPARAISO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Valpo 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.91

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 15 yds to the Valpo 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.98

run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 49

2nd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.83

Aaron Dawson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Valpo 49

3rd & 4Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.72

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Tyriece Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the Valpo 42

4th & 11Punt+2 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 35 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 2 yds to the NMxSt 25

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24

2nd & 11Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.41

Diego Pavia run for 19 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.28

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 17 yds to the Valpo 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+9 yds

PAVIA, Diego pass to the left incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the VAL30. PENALTY VAL Pass Interference on HORTON, Jadarius enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the VAL31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.27

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 15 yds to the Valpo 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the Valpo 8

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Valpo 13

3rd & 7Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +3.01

Diego Pavia run for 13 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Aaron Dawson run for no gain to the Valpo 25

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 50 yds, downed at the NMxSt 25

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Diego Pavia sacked by Kevin Spelman for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 22

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt+2 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 52 yds , Matt Martin returns for 2 yds to the Valpo 28

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.39

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Gabe Peterson for a loss of 9 yards to the Valpo 19

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 19Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Barret Labus for 5 yds to the Valpo 24

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 41 yds, downed at the NMxSt 35

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

4th & 20Punt+1 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 47 yds , Matt Martin returns for 1 yd to the Valpo 29

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Aaron Dawson run for 9 yds to the Valpo 38 Aaron Dawson fumbled, recovered by Valpo Michael Appel Jr.

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Michael Appel Jr. run for 2 yds to the Valpo 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.05

Aaron Dawson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Valpo 37

3rd & 13Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Barret Labus for 2 yds to the Valpo 39

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 26

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.04

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 10 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 13 yds to the Valpo 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 31

2nd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.88

Star Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 28

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Star Thomas for 6 yds to the NMxSt 34

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Matt Martin at the Valpo 22

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Aaron Dawson run for 3 yds to the Valpo 25

2nd & 7Rush-7 ydsPPA -0.77

run for a loss of 7 yards to the Valpo 18

3rd & 14Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.08

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Aaron Dawson for a loss of 3 yards to the Valpo 15

4th & 17Blocked Punt0 yds

punt blocked by Josh Ferguson blocked by Josh Ferguson

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Barret Labus run for 2 yds to the Valpo 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.25

Barret Labus run for a loss of 1 yard to the Valpo 26

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMxSt 40

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.71

Star Thomas run for 23 yds to the Valpo 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the Valpo 35

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the Valpo 30

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.66

Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the Valpo 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Star Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Barret Labus run for 4 yds to the Valpo 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Jamoni Jones run for 9 yds to the Valpo 23

2nd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.97

Gavin Frakes run for a loss of 2 yards to the Valpo 25

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.74

Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the Valpo 25

4th & 3Field Goal Good+42 yds

Ethan Albertson 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Barret Labus run for 2 yds to the Valpo 18

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.13

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for no gain to the Valpo 18

4th & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.53

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 11 yds to the Valpo 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Barret Labus run for 4 yds to the Valpo 33

2nd & 6Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.13

Barret Labus run for a loss of 4 yards to the Valpo 29

3rd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.17

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 1 yd to the Valpo 30

4th & 9Punt+2 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 50 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 2 yds to the NMxSt 22

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+78 ydsPPA +6.27

Ahmonte Watkins run for 78 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

VALPARAISO Penalty, Delay Of Game (Michael Appel Jr.) to the Valpo 30

1st & 15Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Ryan Mann for 2 yds to the Valpo 32

2nd & 13Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Ryan Mann run for 7 yds to the Valpo 39

3rd & 6Penalty-10 yds

VALPARAISO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Valpo 29

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 16Punt+24 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 39 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 24 yds to the Valpo 44

1st & 10Rush+36 ydsPPA +1.09

O'Maury Samuels run for 36 yds to the Valpo 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

O'Maury Samuels run for no gain to the Valpo 8

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.27

O'Maury Samuels run for no gain to the Valpo 8

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.95

Weston Eget pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 8 yds for a TD (J. Carlson Run For Two-point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Barret Labus run for 2 yds to the Valpo 20

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Jake Vickers for 5 yds to the Valpo 25

3rd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.43

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Barret Labus for 9 yds to the Valpo 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Jeffrey Jackson run for 10 yds to the Valpo 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jeffery Vercher run for 4 yds to the Valpo 48

2nd & 6Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.69

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Braden Contreras for 21 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

Jeffery Vercher run for no gain to the NMxSt 31

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Ryan Mann run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Torren Union) to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.26

Jeffrey Jackson run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 4

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

VALPARAISO Penalty, False Start (Jeffrey Jackson) to the NMxSt 9

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.72

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.38

Braylon Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 8

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Braylon Stewart run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 13

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+9 ydsPPA +0.18

Weston Eget run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 22 Weston Eget fumbled, recovered by Valpo Hunter Nabers

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.13

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Matt Ross for 11 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.41

Jeffrey Jackson sacked by Devlin Kirklin for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 13

2nd & 12Penalty0 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (BJ Sculark) to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.62

Barret Labus run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 8

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush-8 ydsPPA -1.52

Jeffrey Jackson run for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 16

4th & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.53

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.71

O'Maury Samuels run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 24

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.84

[NH] Kneel down by EGET, Weston at NMS23 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Valparaiso

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
22%
27 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
39%
18 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
0%
7 plays
20%
5 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play

New Mexico State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
50%
26 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
71%
7 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
4th