Skip to main content
← Back to GamesDec 27, 2022Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Georgia Southern by 0.4

Home Win Probability

Buffalo 46%

Market (consensus)

Buffalo +6

Edge: Buffalo +6 (5.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 27, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Georgia SouthernGeorgia Southern
068721
BuffaloBuffalo
0146323

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-37-314-617-1420-1423-1423-21
BuffaloGeorgia Southern

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20GSBUFGSBUFGSBUFGSBUFGSBUFGSBUFGSBUFGSBUFGSBUFGSBUFGSBUFPUNT730ydPUNT1040ydPUNT31ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT413ydPUNT416ydFG965ydTD1181ydFG771ydTD1075ydEND631ydTO135ydTD179ydFG1460ydTO1-7ydFG712ydPUNT931ydPUNT617ydTO940ydFG1038ydTD1390ydUncategorized721yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Georgia Southern and Buffalo
StatisticGeorgia SouthernBuffalo
Passing29-4721-38
Pass Yards355265
Rush Yards89124
Total Yards444389
Turnovers21
3rd Down7-1512-19
Penalties7-553-30
Possession21:5137:29

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Georgia Southern
passing
Kyle Vantrease
28/45, 352 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
OJ Arnold
12 CAR, 68 YDS
receiving
Beau Johnson
5 REC, 118 YDS
defense
Buffalo
passing
Cole Snyder
21/38, 265 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Tajay Ahmed
27 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Justin Marshall
11 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Evan Lester for 5 yds to the GeoSo 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.52

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 13 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.08

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 11 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jjay Mcafee

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

OJ Arnold run for 2 yds to the Buff 44

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 49

3rd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 4 yds to the Buff 45

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Anthony Beck II punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Chandler Baker at the Buff 10

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Mike Washington run for 7 yds to the Buff 17

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.03

Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the Buff 24

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.87

Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 7 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Buff 33

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.81

Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 15 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin Marshall

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin Marshall

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 50 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

OJ Arnold run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 21

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Anthony Beck II punt for 35 yds , Chandler Baker returns for no gain to the Buff 44 Chandler Baker fumbled, recovered by Buff

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 43

2nd & 11Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 2 yds to the Buff 45

3rd & 9Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.98

Cole Snyder sacked by Jalen Jackson and Da'Shawn Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 38

4th & 16Punt+23 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 40 yds , Khaleb Hood returns for 23 yds to the GeoSo 45

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.86

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 11 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 3 yds to the Buff 41

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

OJ Arnold run for 2 yds to the Buff 39

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 44

3rd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 2 yds to the Buff 42

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Anthony Beck II punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Chandler Baker at the Buff 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.46

Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for 11 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Buff 23

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the Buff 28

3rd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.52

Mark Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 26

4th & 5Punt+2 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 37 yds , Khaleb Hood returns for 2 yds to the GeoSo 28 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the GeoSo 29

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 30

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.70

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ezrah Archie for 15 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.49

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Beau Johnson for 26 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.59

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Beau Johnson for 22 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 2 yds to the Buff 5

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Jjay Mcafee run for 3 yds to the Buff 2

3rd & 2Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.58

Tyler Jordan run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 6

4th & 6Field Goal Good+23 yds

Alex Raynor 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Mark Scott run for 3 yds to the Buff 22

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Mark Scott run for 2 yds to the Buff 24

3rd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.16

Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 5 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.02

Tajay Ahmed run for 11 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin Marshall

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +3.23

Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 16 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Cole Snyder sacked by Marques Watson-Trent and Isaac Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 45

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.79

Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 13 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.87

Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 32 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +2.53

OJ Arnold run for 29 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.80

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Beau Johnson for 19 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.23

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ezrah Archie for 17 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

OJ Arnold run for 7 yds to the Buff 3

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.36

OJ Arnold run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 4

4th & 4Field Goal Good+21 yds

Alex Raynor 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Cole Snyder pass complete to Tajay Ahmed for 11 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Tajay Ahmed run for no gain to the Buff 36

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Cole Snyder pass complete to Tajay Ahmed for 6 yds to the Buff 42

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.83

Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for 5 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +1.52

Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 36 yds to the GeoSo 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Tajay Ahmed run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 12

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin Marshall

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.00

Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 7 yds to the GeoSo 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Tajay Ahmed run for no gain to the GeoSo 5

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Tajay Ahmed run for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ezrah Archie for 10 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 9 yds to the GeoSo 44

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.37

AJ Brown run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

TEAM pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to AJ Brown for 7 yds to the Buff 44

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+35 ydsPPA -2.63

Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 35 yds Quian Williams fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Anthony Wilson

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+79 ydsPPA +6.33

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Joshua Thompson for 79 yds for a TD (Kyle Vantrease pass to Jjay Mcafee for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Cole Snyder pass incomplete for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Buff 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Tajay Ahmed run for 8 yds to the Buff 48

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.02

Tajay Ahmed run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.80

Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 11 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 9 yds to the GeoSo 29

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Tajay Ahmed run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Tajay Ahmed run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 19

2nd & 3Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 3 yds to the GeoSo 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Tajay Ahmed run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 15

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin Marshall

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+33 yds

Alex McNulty 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-7 ydsPPA -0.92

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for a loss of 7 yards Khaleb Hood fumbled, recovered by Buff Jalen McNair

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Tajay Ahmed run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 15

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Tajay Ahmed run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 11

3rd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.52

Cole Snyder run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.32

Tajay Ahmed run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 6

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+24 yds

Alex McNulty 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 10 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

OJ Arnold run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 36

2nd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.80

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Beau Johnson for 9 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 7 yds to the Buff 48

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.45

Kyle Vantrease run for 4 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Anthony Beck II punt for 44 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.78

Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 13 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 23

1st & 20Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 6 yds to the Buff 29

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.73

Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 13 yds to the Buff 42

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Buff 37

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 61 yds, downed at the GeoSo 2

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 6

3rd & 6Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.55

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 9 yds to the GeoSo 15 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Personal Foul (Jalen McNair) to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

OJ Arnold run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 37

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.71

OJ Arnold run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 39

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.17

OJ Arnold run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return+13 ydsPPA -0.47

Kyle Vantrease pass intercepted Dylan Powell return for 13 yds to the GeoSo 40

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Tajay Ahmed run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 33

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Tajay Ahmed run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 32

3rd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.70

Tajay Ahmed run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.64

Tajay Ahmed run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 15

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.49

Tajay Ahmed run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.32

Tajay Ahmed run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Tajay Ahmed run for no gain to the GeoSo 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Tajay Ahmed run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 1

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.40

Tajay Ahmed run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 2

4th & 2Field Goal Good+20 yds

Alex McNulty 20 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

OJ Arnold run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 14

2nd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to OJ Arnold for 1 yd to the GeoSo 15

3rd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.73

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 5 yds to the GeoSo 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to OJ Arnold for 5 yds to the GeoSo 25

2nd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.15

OJ Arnold run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Tyler Bride run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 39

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

4th & 7Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +4.36

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Beau Johnson for 42 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Dalen Cobb pass complete to Kyle Vantrease for 3 yds to the Buff 16

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 3 yds to the Buff 13

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.52

Kyle Vantrease run for 5 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Penalty-5 yds

GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 13

1st & 13Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.72

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 13 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Tajay Ahmed run for 1 yd to the Buff 26

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Tajay Ahmed run for 2 yds to the Buff 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.88

Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 9 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Tajay Ahmed run for 3 yds to the Buff 40

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Tajay Ahmed run for 4 yds to the Buff 44

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.62

Tajay Ahmed run for 4 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 46

Situational Analysis

Georgia Southern

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
43%
30 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
36%
14 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
100%
3 plays
17%
6 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
45%
31 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
14%
7 plays
50%
4 plays
17%
12 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
75%
4 plays
63%
8 plays
100%
2 plays
4th