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← Back to GamesDec 17, 2022Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Cincinnati by 2.2

Home Win Probability

Louisville 45%

Market (consensus)

Louisville -2.5

Edge: Cincinnati +2.5 (4.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 17, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
CincinnatiCincinnati
07007
LouisvilleLouisville
7143024

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-714-721-724-7
LouisvilleCincinnati

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LOUCINLOUCINLOUCINLOUCINLOUCINLOUCINCINLOUCINLOUCINLOUCINLOUCINLOUCINLOUPUNT33ydDOWNS66ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT940ydTO629ydTO3-11ydTD149ydTD973ydTD1066ydPUNT31ydTD774ydEND1-11ydTO37ydPUNT34ydPUNT55ydFG1438ydPUNT512ydTO637ydPUNT3-1ydTO549ydPUNT3-7ydTO1058ydPUNT33ydUncategorized523yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Cincinnati and Louisville
StatisticCincinnatiLouisville
Passing7-1513-23
Pass Yards83132
Rush Yards44287
Total Yards127419
Turnovers24
3rd Down2-137-14
Penalties3-255-25
Possession27:3132:03

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Cincinnati
passing
Evan Prater
7/15, 83 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Ethan Wright
8 CAR, 43 YDS
receiving
L'Christian Smith
2 REC, 32 YDS
defense
Louisville
passing
Brock Domann
13/21, 132 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Maurice Turner
31 CAR, 160 YDS
receiving
Jaelin Carter
4 REC, 50 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brock Domann pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Brock Domann pass incomplete to Jaelin Carter

4th & 7Punt0 yds

TEAM punt for 14 yds, downed at the Lvile 42

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Lvile 40

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Evan Prater run for 10 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Evan Prater pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-16 ydsPPA -3.51

Evan Prater sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 16 yards to the Lvile 46 Evan Prater fumbled, forced by Ashton Gillotte, recovered by Cincy

3rd & 26Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.61

Evan Prater pass complete to Will Pauling for 10 yds to the Lvile 36

4th & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Evan Prater pass incomplete to Charles McClelland

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.21

Brock Domann run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 35

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Brock Domann pass incomplete to Jaelin Carter

3rd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.28

Maurice Turner run for no gain to the Lvile 35

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Mark Vassett punt for 56 yds, downed at the Cincy 9

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Charles McClelland run for no gain to the Cincy 9

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.36

Evan Prater pass complete to Blue Smith for 9 yds to the Cincy 18

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.41

Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the Cincy 21

2nd & 9Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.43

Evan Prater run for 12 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Evan Prater pass complete to Payten Singletary for 11 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.58

Ethan Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 42

2nd & 12Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Ethan Wright run for 6 yds to the Cincy 48

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Evan Prater run for 1 yd to the Cincy 49

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 11

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 9

2nd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Brock Domann pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 6 yds to the Lvile 15

3rd & 6Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.01

Brock Domann run for 6 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Ivan Pace Jr.) to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Brock Domann pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 2 yds to the Lvile 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Brock Domann pass complete to Braden Smith for 4 yds to the Lvile 42

3rd & 4Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-2 ydsPPA -1.07

Brock Domann run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 40 Brock Domann fumbled, recovered by Cincy Ryan Mullaney

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.75

Evan Prater sacked by Momo Sanogo for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 49

2nd & 19Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Lvile 47

3rd & 17Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.76

Evan Prater sacked by Monty Montgomery for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 49 Evan Prater fumbled, forced by Monty Montgomery, recovered by Lvile Ashton Gillotte , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+49 ydsPPA +3.76

Jawhar Jordan run for 49 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Ethan Wright run for 6 yds to the Cincy 33

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Evan Prater run for 2 yds to the Cincy 35

3rd & 2Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.99

Evan Prater pass complete to Wyatt Fischer for 11 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the Lvile 45

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.20

Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the Lvile 45

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.08

Ethan Wright run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.73

Evan Prater pass complete to Blue Smith for 23 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Evan Prater pass complete to Wyatt Fischer for 20 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Brock Domann pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the Lvile 37

3rd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.09

Brock Domann pass complete to Jaelin Carter for 18 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Maurice Turner run for no gain to the Cincy 45, lateral to Braden Smith for 6 yards to the Cincy 39

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.33

Maurice Turner run for 8 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

Maurice Turner run for no gain to the Cincy 31

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 36

2nd & 15Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Jawhar Jordan run for 8 yds to the Cincy 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.14

Brock Domann pass complete to Jaelin Carter for 15 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Maurice Turner run for 5 yds to the Cincy 8

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.46

Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 8 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Evan Prater run for 7 yds to the Cincy 37

2nd & 3Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.84

Evan Prater sacked by Ramon Puryear and Jared Dawson for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 32

3rd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.34

Evan Prater pass complete to Charles McClelland for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 31

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 43 yds, downed at the Lvile 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.05

Brock Domann pass complete to Jaelin Carter for 12 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Maurice Turner run for 11 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Brock Domann run for 5 yds to the Cincy 46

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Maurice Turner run for 8 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.47

Brock Domann sacked by Ivan Pace Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 46

2nd & 18Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Brock Domann pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 5 yds to the Cincy 41

3rd & 13Rushing Touchdown+41 ydsPPA +5.52

Jawhar Jordan run for 41 yds for a TD LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 8 (James Turner KICK)

1st & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -1.44

Evan Prater sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 11 yards to the Cincy 17

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the Cincy 44

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the Cincy 47

3rd & 3Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+5 ydsPPA -1.65

Brady Lichtenberg run for 5 yds to the Lvile 48 Brady Lichtenberg fumbled, forced by M.J. Griffin, recovered by Lvile Yasir Abdullah

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Braden Smith pass incomplete to Maurice Turner

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the Cincy 48

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Brock Domann pass incomplete to Braden Smith

4th & 6Punt+31 yds

Mark Vassett punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Wilson Huber at the Cincy 12 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 17

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the Cincy 19

2nd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.33

Ethan Wright run for 13 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the Cincy 33

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Evan Prater pass incomplete to Blue Smith

3rd & 9Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.50

Evan Prater sacked by YaYa Diaby and Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 11 yards to the Cincy 22

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 33

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the Lvile 36

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Brock Domann pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +2.16

Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 5 yds to the Lvile 48

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.74

Maurice Turner run for 5 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Brock Domann pass incomplete to Marshon Ford

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.65

Maurice Turner run for 11 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Maurice Turner run for 4 yds to the Cincy 32

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.97

Maurice Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 33

3rd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.33

Maurice Turner run for 7 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Michael Gonzalez) to the Cincy 31

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Maurice Turner run for 2 yds to the Cincy 29

2nd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Ahmari Huggins-Bruce run for 1 yd to the Cincy 28

3rd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Maurice Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 29

4th & 13Field Goal Good+48 yds

James Turner 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Evan Prater pass incomplete to Will Pauling

2nd & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.64

Ethan Wright run for 18 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Evan Prater run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45

2nd & 8Rush-8 ydsPPA -2.48

Will Pauling run for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 47

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Evan Prater pass incomplete

4th & 16Punt+5 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds , Braden Smith returns for 5 yds to the Lvile 21

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the Lvile 24

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Maurice Turner run for 6 yds to the Lvile 30

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.39

Maurice Turner run for 8 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the Lvile 41

2nd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.08

Brock Domann pass complete to Braden Smith for 17 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+20 ydsPPA -3.71

Braden Smith pass intercepted Armorion Smith return for 20 yds to the Cincy 41

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.34

Ethan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 40

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Evan Prater pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Evan Prater pass incomplete to Will Pauling

4th & 11Punt+5 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds , Braden Smith returns for 5 yds to the Lvile 20

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Maurice Turner run for no gain to the Lvile 20

2nd & 10Rush+48 ydsPPA +4.07

Maurice Turner run for 48 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the Cincy 29

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.05

Maurice Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 31

3rd & 9Pass Interception Return+19 ydsPPA -2.89

Brock Domann pass intercepted Ja'von Hicks return for 19 yds to the Cincy 24

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Ethan Wright run for 1 yd to the Cincy 25

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Evan Prater pass incomplete

3rd & 9Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.28

Evan Prater sacked by YaYa Diaby for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 17

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 38

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the Lvile 39

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Maurice Turner run for 2 yds to the Lvile 41

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Brock Domann pass complete to Jaelin Carter for 5 yds to the Lvile 46

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.36

Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.18

Brock Domann pass complete to Braden Smith for 24 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the Cincy 25

2nd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.46

Brock Domann pass complete to Chris Bell for 11 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Maurice Turner run for no gain to the Cincy 14

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.37

Maurice Turner run for 4 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaheim Thomas) to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -5.12

Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the Cincy 4 Maurice Turner fumbled, recovered by Cincy Ryan Mullaney

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Cincy 8

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Cincy 11

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.16

Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Cincy 12

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 7

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 47 yds , Braden Smith returns for no gain to the Lvile 46

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.77

Maurice Turner run for 10 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.71

Maurice Turner run for 8 yds to the Cincy 36

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Grant Goodman run for 4 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

Jeremiah Caldwell run for no gain to the Cincy 32

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Grant Goodman run for 1 yd to the Cincy 31

Situational Analysis

Cincinnati

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
24%
21 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
25%
4 plays
56%
9 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
0%
1 play
0%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
33%
30 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
80%
5 plays
43%
14 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
33%
3 plays
71%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play