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← Back to GamesNov 26, 2022Week 13
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Troy by 21.6

Home Win Probability

Arkansas State 9%

Market (consensus)

Arkansas State +13.5

Edge: Troy -13.5 (8.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 26, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
TroyTroy
7073448
Arkansas StateArkansas State
3106019

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842563-03-76-713-713-1419-1419-2719-3419-48
Arkansas StateTroy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TROASTROASTROASTROASTROASTROASTROASTROASTROASTROASASTROASTROASTROASTO313ydFG4-1ydPUNT616ydPUNT620ydTD1472ydPUNT33ydPUNT420ydFG1363ydPUNT812ydPUNT32ydTO10ydTD333ydEND13ydPUNT36ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT3-5ydTD1094ydTD870ydTD475ydTD538ydPUNT3-1ydTD553ydDOWNS722ydTD247ydTO10ydTD527ydEND24yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Troy and Arkansas State
StatisticTroyArkansas State
Passing9-1521-37
Pass Yards144221
Rush Yards26838
Total Yards412259
Turnovers22
3rd Down4-113-13
Penalties3-255-46
Possession32:3527:25

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Troy
passing
Gunnar Watson
9/15, 144 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kimani Vidal
33 CAR, 208 YDS, 4 TD
receiving
RaJae' Johnson
3 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Arkansas State
passing
James Blackman
20/35, 220 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Johnnie Lang
5 CAR, 20 YDS
receiving
Champ Flemings
6 REC, 55 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 8 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.05

Gunnar Watson pass intercepted

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the Troy 2

2nd & 2Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.56

James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 3

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

James Blackman pass incomplete

4th & 3Field Goal Good+20 yds

Dominic Zvada 20 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 33

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.15

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 37

2nd & 9Fumble Recovery (Own)+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Michael Vice for 1 yd Michael Vice fumbled, recovered by Troy

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt+8 yds

Mike Rivers punt for 44 yds , Johnnie Lang returns for 8 yds to the ArkSt 7

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

James Blackman pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Johnnie Lang run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 15

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.94

James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 8 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 27

2nd & 6Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.59

James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for no gain to the ArkSt 27

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 4 yds to the ArkSt 31

4th & 2Punt+7 yds

William Przystup punt for 48 yds , Orlando Lacey returns for 7 yds to the Troy 28

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.58

DK Billingsley run for 17 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Gunnar Watson run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 48

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.71

DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 46

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.92

DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 37

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.63

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 8

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 4

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.35

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Penalty0 yds

ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offsides (John Mincey) to the ArkSt 1

1st & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.96

run for no gain to the ArkSt 1 fumbled, recovered by Troy Gunnar Watson

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

James Blackman pass incomplete

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -0.56

run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 17 fumbled, recovered by ArkSt James Blackman

3rd & 18Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.14

James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 11 yds to the ArkSt 28

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 29

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Ethan Hassler) to the Troy 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 48

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Troy 49

3rd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.81

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for no gain to the Troy 49

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Mike Rivers punt for 18 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Johnnie Lang run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 38

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.95

James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 6 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -2.43

run for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 36 fumbled, recovered by ArkSt James Blackman

2nd & 18Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 5 yds to the ArkSt 41

3rd & 13Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.16

James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 12 yds to the Troy 47

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.20

Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.62

James Blackman pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 15 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Johnnie Lang run for 9 yds to the Troy 20

2nd & 1Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.42

James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 16 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

James Blackman pass incomplete

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

James Blackman pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

James Blackman pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+21 yds

Dominic Zvada 21 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Tristan Mattson kickoff for 64 yds , Jarris Williams return for 24 yds to the Troy 25

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the Troy 31

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 42

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.43

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48

3rd & 8Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.38

Gunnar Watson sacked by Jaden Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 47

4th & 13Penalty-5 yds

TROY Penalty, False Start (Dell Pettus) to the Troy 42

4th & 18Penalty-5 yds

TROY Penalty, False Start (Jarris Williams) to the Troy 37

4th & 23Punt0 yds

Mike Rivers punt for 38 yds, downed at the ArkSt 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

James Blackman pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

James Blackman pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt-3 yds

William Przystup punt for 37 yds , Tez Johnson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 33

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.96

Gunnar Watson sacked for 0 yards to the Troy 33

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

James Blackman pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

James Blackman run for 3 yds to the Troy 30

3rd & 7Rushing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +3.82

James Blackman run for 30 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Tristan Mattson kickoff for 60 yds , Peyton Higgins return for 18 yds to the Troy 23

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 26

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Brooks Buce kickoff for 64 yds , Johnnie Lang return for 19 yds to the ArkSt 20

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

James Blackman run for no gain to the ArkSt 20

2nd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.41

James Blackman sacked by Will Choloh for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 13

3rd & 17Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.21

Marcel Murray run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 26

4th & 4Punt+19 yds

William Przystup punt for 58 yds , Tez Johnson returns for 19 yds to the Troy 45 TROY Penalty, Personal Foul (Javon Solomon) to the Troy 8

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 24

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 25

3rd & 5Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.43

Gunnar Watson sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 19

4th & 11Punt+15 yds

Mike Rivers punt for 45 yds , Reagan Ealy returns for 15 yds to the Troy 49

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

James Blackman pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.80

Marcel Murray run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 46

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

James Blackman pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 48 yds, downed at the Troy 6

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.51

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 14 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the Troy 40

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 46

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.85

Gunnar Watson pass complete to DK Billingsley for 9 yds to the ArkSt 45

4th & 1Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.78

DK Billingsley run for 23 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 21

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.96

Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 21 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+10 yds

Brooks Buce kickoff for 45 yds , Reagan Ealy return for 10 yds to the ArkSt 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.35

James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 9 yds to the ArkSt 39

2nd & 1Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.06

James Blackman pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 6 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

James Blackman pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.20

James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 14 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +0.92

James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 33 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the Troy 6

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

James Blackman run for 5 yds to the Troy 1

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Reed Tyler 1 Yd pass from AJ Mayer (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 27

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.48

Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+56 ydsPPA +2.85

Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 56 yds to the ArkSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Kimani Vidal 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Brooks Buce kickoff for 65 yds , Champ Flemings return for 24 yds to the ArkSt 24

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 27

2nd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.77

James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 14 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.56

James Blackman pass complete to Daverrick Jenkins for 21 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

James Blackman pass incomplete

2nd & 10Interception Return Touchdown+67 ydsPPA -10.12

Reddy Steward 67 Yd Interception Return (Brooks Buce Kick)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

James Blackman run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28

2nd & 7Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.87

James Blackman sacked by T.J. Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 22

3rd & 13Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.09

James Blackman pass complete to Marcel Murray for 7 yds to the ArkSt 29

4th & 6Penalty-5 yds

ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Taylon Doss) to the ArkSt 24

4th & 11Punt+17 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 46 yds , Orlando Lacey returns for 17 yds to the Troy 47

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.31

Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 24 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 21

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.27

Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 12

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.66

Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

James Blackman pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.02

James Blackman pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 15 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.62

James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 21 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.44

James Blackman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 42

2nd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 4 yds to the Troy 38

3rd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -1.02

James Blackman run for no gain to the Troy 38

4th & 9Sack-15 ydsPPA -1.24

James Blackman sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 15 yards to the ArkSt 47

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.77

Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 39

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+39 ydsPPA +2.84

Kimani Vidal run for 39 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Brooks Buce kickoff for 51 yds , Reagan Ealy return for 15 yds to the ArkSt 29

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.22

Jaxon Dailey pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.21

Kimani Vidal run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 7

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 3

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jarris Williams run for no gain to the ArkSt 3

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.82

Damien Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+3 yds

Brooks Buce kickoff for 63 yds , Reagan Ealy return for 3 yds to the ArkSt 5

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 11

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.48

Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 9

Situational Analysis

Troy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
48%
29 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
44%
9 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
3 plays

Arkansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
33%
24 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
27%
11 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play