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← Back to GamesOct 15, 2022Week 7
Texas StateTexas State
14
-Final
17
TroyTroy
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Troy by 14.5

Home Win Probability

Troy 82%

Market (consensus)

Troy -16.5

Edge: Texas State +16.5 (2.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 15, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Texas StateTexas State
077014
TroyTroy
0100717

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40147-010-010-1417-14
TroyTexas State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTO517ydPUNT35ydPUNT36ydDOWNS1038ydPUNT34ydPUNT620ydTD174ydPUNT730ydPUNT643ydPUNT32ydFG742ydTD975ydEND456ydTD370ydPUNT38ydPUNT35ydPUNT35ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT631ydPUNT514ydTD979ydPUNT527ydPUNT31ydPUNT35ydEND1031yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Texas State and Troy
StatisticTexas StateTroy
Passing21-3216-28
Pass Yards207299
Rush Yards86107
Total Yards293406
Turnovers01
3rd Down5-153-12
Penalties2-203-39
Possession30:2629:34

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Texas State
passing
Layne Hatcher
21/32, 207 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Lincoln Pare
18 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Lincoln Pare
3 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Troy
passing
Gunnar Watson
12/22, 240 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
DK Billingsley
16 CAR, 70 YDS
receiving
Tez Johnson
4 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.64

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 10 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TexSt 48

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 6Interception0 ydsPPA -1.68

Gunnar Watson pass intercepted

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

PARE, Lincoln rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the TXS35 (MARTIAL, Carlton;JACKSON, T.J.). PENALTY TXS Holding on COSTILLA, Alex enforced 10 yards from the TXS33 to the TXS23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the TexSt 28

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.30

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 10 yds to the TexSt 38

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 2 yds to the Troy 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 4 yds to the Troy 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Mike Rivers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 25

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the TexSt 33

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 34

3rd & 1Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.92

Lincoln Pare run for 12 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the Troy 46

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.15

Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Layne Hatcher run for 4 yds to the Troy 39

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Layne Hatcher run for no gain to the Troy 39

3rd & 6Penalty0 yds

HATCHER, Layne pass to the left incomplete intended for BANKS, Javen thrown to the TRO15; QB hurried by SOLOMON, Javon. PENALTY TXS Holding on WEST, Richard TRO Holding on FLETCHER, O'shai , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the Troy 37

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.93

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 41

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt+2 yds

Mike Rivers punt for 42 yds , Rontavius Groves returns for 2 yds to the TexSt 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 5 yds to the TexSt 24

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 4 yds to the TexSt 28

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.01

Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the TexSt 40

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.75

Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 42

3rd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.33

Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 39

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 35 yds, downed at the Troy 26

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+74 ydsPPA +6.01

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 74 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 14 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.46

Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the TexSt 47 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marcell Barbee) to the TexSt 39

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TexSt 43

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.41

Calvin Hill run for 10 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the Troy 45

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 11

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.85

DK Billingsley run for 9 yds to the Troy 20

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.24

DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.53

Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 29 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TexSt 47

2nd & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.60

Gunnar Watson sacked by Jordan Revels for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line

3rd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 4 yds to the TexSt 46

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mike Rivers punt for 40 yds, downed at the TexSt 6

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 8

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt+5 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds , Deshon Stoudemire returns for 5 yds to the TexSt 48

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.04

DK Billingsley run for 9 yds to the TexSt 39

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.51

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Michael Vice for 24 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the TexSt 9

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the TexSt 6

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

4th & 3Field Goal Good+24 yds

Brooks Buce 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 10 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Titus Lyons for 1 yd to the TexSt 36

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 4 yds to the TexSt 40

3rd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.44

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 11 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.67

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 11 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.35

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.77

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Titus Lyons for 24 yds to the Troy 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+1 yds

Mason Shipley kickoff for 35 yds , Michael Vice return for 1 yd to the Troy 31

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.68

DK Billingsley run for 7 yds to the Troy 38

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.36

Gunnar Watson run for 4 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.99

Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 2Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +1.03

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 37 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST down

0th & 2End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+29 yds

Brooks Buce kickoff for 64 yds , Donnovan Moorer return for 29 yds to the TexSt 30

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the TexSt 36

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+64 ydsPPA +6.35

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 64 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.49

Jarret Doege run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 21

3rd & 14Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.37

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 12 yds to the Troy 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Mike Rivers punt for 56 yds, downed at the TexSt 11

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 3 yds to the TexSt 14

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 15

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.12

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 1 yd to the TexSt 16

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 5 yds to the Troy 45

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Mike Rivers punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the TexSt 34

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.65

Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 33

3rd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.24

Layne Hatcher run for no gain to the TexSt 33

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 18

1st & 10Penalty-21 yds

VIDAL, Kimani rush up the middle for a gain of 21 yards to the TRO39 (SPEARS, Tory). PENALTY TRO Personal Foul on BUTLER, Deandre enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the TRO18 to the TRO9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 19Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the Troy 14

2nd & 14Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.60

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 17 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.99

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 22 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -3.19

Gunnar Watson sacked by Nico Ezidore and Jordan Revels for a loss of 12 yards to the Troy 41

2nd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

3rd & 22Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.20

Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 8 yds to the Troy 49

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Mike Rivers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 7

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 13

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.19

Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the TexSt 21

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 58 yds, downed at the Troy 21

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.14

Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the Troy 30

2nd & 1Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.00

Kimani Vidal run for 16 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.79

Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 43

2nd & 13Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.57

Jarret Doege pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 13 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TexSt 41

2nd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.01

Jarret Doege pass complete to Devonte Ross for 15 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Jarret Doege pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Tez Johnson run for 3 yds to the TexSt 23

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +3.39

Jarret Doege pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Zach Long kickoff for 65 yds , Donnovan Moorer return for 16 yds to the TexSt 16

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 4 yds to the TexSt 20

2nd & 6Penalty+15 yds

TROY Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Javon Solomon) to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TexSt 43

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Layne Hatcher run for no gain to the TexSt 37

3rd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 6 yds to the TexSt 43

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 27

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Jarret Doege pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 31

3rd & 6Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.47

Jarret Doege sacked by Nico Ezidore and Jordan Revels for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 28

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mike Rivers punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 8 yds to the TexSt 41

2nd & 2Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.93

Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 38

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 20

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the Troy 26

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.40

DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

DK Billingsley run for 7 yds to the Troy 37

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.71

DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 39

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.17

DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

DK Billingsley run for 7 yds to the Troy 49

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.75

DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 49

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.00

DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

DK Billingsley run for no gain to the TexSt 47

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.06

[NHSG] Kneel down by DOEGE, Jarret at TXS49 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
43%
23 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
25%
8 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
75%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
0%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Troy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
46%
26 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
43%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
30%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
5 plays
100%
1 play
67%
3 plays
4th