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← Back to GamesOct 22, 2022Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Morehead State by 3.3

Home Win Probability

Morehead State 58%

Market (consensus)

Morehead State +3

Edge: Morehead State +3 (6.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 22, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Valparaiso
14771240
Morehead State
7147735

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-07-77-1414-2121-2121-2828-2828-3135-3435-40
Morehead StateValparaiso

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSMSVALMSVALMSVALVALMSVALMSVALMSVALVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSVALMSTD1169ydDOWNS616ydTD464ydPUNT38ydTD973ydDOWNS1067ydTD36ydTD1071ydTD475ydPUNT742ydEND1-1ydTD576ydMISS962ydTD20ydTO739ydPUNT414ydFG971ydTD375ydFG845ydPUNT37ydTD684ydDOWNS1032ydDOWNS49ydTO737yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Valparaiso and Morehead State
StatisticValparaisoMorehead State
Passing19-3025-45
Pass Yards300326
Rush Yards274121
Total Yards574447
Turnovers21
3rd Down4-137-14
Penalties6-563-41
Possession34:4025:20

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Valparaiso
passing
Michael Appel Jr.
13/19, 245 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Aaron Dawson
31 CAR, 241 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Braden Contreras
5 REC, 116 YDS, 2 TD
Morehead State
passing
Grady Cramer
25/45, 326 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
James Louis
8 CAR, 74 YDS
receiving
Christian Graves
5 REC, 115 YDS, 2 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.01

Grady Cramer pass complete to James Louis for 8 yds to the MorSt 39

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.04

James Louis run for 3 yds to the MorSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Chance Harris run for 5 yds to the MorSt 47

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.10

Chance Harris run for 10 yds to the Valpo 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Chance Harris run for 3 yds to the Valpo 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Grady Cramer pass complete to Christian Graves for 10 yds to the Valpo 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Christian Graves

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.58

Grady Cramer pass complete to Nick Dottore for 1 yd to the Valpo 29

3rd & 9Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.26

Grady Cramer pass complete to Kenny Lewis Jr. for 25 yds to the Valpo 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Chance Harris run for 3 yds to the Valpo 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Chance Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nathan Hazlett KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Chance Harris run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.47

Grady Cramer pass complete to Michael Armour for 10 yds to the Valpo 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Grady Cramer run for 4 yds to the Valpo 36

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Christian Graves

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Christian Graves, broken up by Colin Graves

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.77

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Michael Armour, broken up by Colin Graves

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.46

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 16 yds to the MorSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Mason Kaplan run for no gain to the MorSt 48

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.71

Aaron Dawson run for 11 yds to the MorSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +3.05

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 37 yds for a TD, (Brian Bartholomew KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

James Louis run for no gain to the MorSt 31

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Grady Cramer pass incomplete, broken up by Keyon Turner

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.32

Grady Cramer pass complete to Gunnison Bloodgood for 8 yds to the MorSt 39

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.77

Aaron Dawson run for no gain to the Valpo 27

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Mason Kaplan pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.62

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 16 yds to the Valpo 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.98

Mason Kaplan run for 8 yds to the MorSt 49

2nd & 2Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.72

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 21 yds to the MorSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete to Solomon Davis

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Aaron Dawson run for 4 yds to the MorSt 24

3rd & 6Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.79

Aaron Dawson run for a loss of 5 yards to the MorSt 29

4th & 11Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +5.14

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 29 yds for a TD, (Brian Bartholomew KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.83

Grady Cramer pass complete to Kyle Daly for no gain to the MorSt 29

2nd & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.76

Grady Cramer pass complete to Kyle Daly for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.75

Grady Cramer pass complete to Isaiah Davis for 12 yds to the Valpo 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Chance Harris run for 5 yds to the Valpo 33

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Kenny Lewis Jr.

3rd & 5Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.29

Grady Cramer pass complete to Gunnison Bloodgood for 22 yds to the Valpo 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Grady Cramer pass complete to Kyle Daly for 4 yds to the Valpo 7

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Kenny Lewis Jr.

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Chance Harris run for 3 yds to the Valpo 4

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.06

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Kenny Lewis Jr.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Jahni Clarke run for 2 yds to the Valpo 7

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Matt Ross for 4 yds to the Valpo 11

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete to Matt Ross, broken up by Kaleb Lyons

4th & 4Blocked Punt+1 yds

Evan Matthes punt blocked by Cooper Krezek blocked by Cooper Krezek Cooper Krezek return for 1 yd for a TD, (Nathan Hazlett KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Mason Kaplan pass complete to Aaron Dawson for 1 yd to the Valpo 30

2nd & 9Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +3.72

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 43 yds to the MorSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Aaron Dawson run for 4 yds to the MorSt 23

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Aaron Dawson run for 3 yds to the MorSt 20

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.59

Aaron Dawson run for no gain to the MorSt 20

4th & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.02

Mason Kaplan run for 10 yds to the MorSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.40

Aaron Dawson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MorSt 12

2nd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.46

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Aaron Dawson for 11 yds to the MorSt 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Aaron Dawson run for no gain to the MorSt 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Michael Appel Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Bartholomew KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

James Louis run for 3 yds to the MorSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+63 ydsPPA +3.95

James Louis run for 63 yds to the Valpo 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Chance Harris run for no gain to the Valpo 9

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.74

Grady Cramer pass complete to Christian Graves for 9 yds for a TD, (Nathan Hazlett KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Michael Appel Jr. run for 1 yd to the Valpo 9

2nd & 9Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.56

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 33 yds to the Valpo 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete, broken up by Kameron Frye

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.23

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 13 yds to the MorSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete to Dominic Grguric

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Dominic Grguric for 1 yd to the MorSt 44

3rd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Barret Labus for 4 yds to the MorSt 40

4th & 5Penalty-5 yds

VALPARAISO Penalty, delay of game (Solomon Davis) to the MorSt 45

4th & 10Penalty-5 yds

VALPARAISO Penalty, delay of game (Solomon Davis) to the 50 yard line

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 50 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MorSt 19

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Aaron Dawson run for 1 yd to the Valpo 25

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39

Aaron Dawson run for no gain to the Valpo 25

3rd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.53

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 17 yds to the Valpo 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.09

Aaron Dawson run for 13 yds to the MorSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+45 ydsPPA +3.48

Aaron Dawson run for 45 yds for a TD, (Brian Bartholomew KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.97

Grady Cramer pass complete to Gunnison Bloodgood for 14 yds to the MorSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

James Louis run for 1 yd to the MorSt 33

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Matt Guilfoil

3rd & 9Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.69

Grady Cramer pass complete to Gunnison Bloodgood for 12 yds to the Valpo 45 for a 1ST down VALPARAISO Penalty, targeting (Austin Chilton) to the Valpo 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.49

Grady Cramer pass complete to Christian Graves for 15 yds to the Valpo 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Grady Cramer pass complete to Kyle Daly for 5 yds to the Valpo 20

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Grady Cramer pass incomplete, broken up by Kurt Kessen

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Christian Graves, broken up by Caleb Rao

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+38 yds

Nathan Hazlett 38 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete to Jake Vickers

2nd & 10Interception Return Touchdown+23 ydsPPA -7.08

Cooper Krezek 23 Yd Interception Return (Nathan Hazlett Kick)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Aaron Dawson run for 5 yds to the Valpo 30

2nd & 5Rush+28 ydsPPA +2.69

Aaron Dawson run for 28 yds to the MorSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Aaron Dawson run for 14 yds to the MorSt 28 VALPARAISO Penalty, Offensive holding (Keyon Turner) to the MorSt 37

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Aaron Dawson run for 3 yds to the MorSt 34

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete to Jake Vickers

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.78

Aaron Dawson run for 1 yd to the MorSt 33

4th & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-3 ydsPPA -2.72

Aaron Dawson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MorSt 36 Aaron Dawson fumbled, forced by Preston Toner, recovered by MorSt Sid Weddington

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Grady Cramer pass complete to Michael Armour for 10 yds to the MorSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Kenny Lewis Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Chance Harris run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Kenny Lewis Jr.

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 50 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Jeffrey Jackson run for no gain to the Valpo 20 for a 1ST down MOREHEAD ST Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Valpo 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Barret Labus run for 5 yds to the Valpo 35

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.76

Aaron Dawson run for 1 yd to the Valpo 36

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.07

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Matt Ross for 9 yds to the Valpo 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +1.75

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Dominic Grguric for 44 yds to the MorSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Aaron Dawson run for 1 yd to the MorSt 10

2nd & 9Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.35

Jeffrey Jackson sacked by Nick Lavender and Eddie Loos for a loss of 1 yard to the MorSt 11

3rd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Matt Ross for 2 yds to the MorSt 9

4th & 8Field Goal Good+26 yds

Brian Bartholomew 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

James Louis run for 8 yds to the MorSt 33

2nd & 2Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.84

James Louis run for a loss of 6 yards to the MorSt 27

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+73 ydsPPA +7.01

Christian Graves 73 Yd pass from Grady Cramer (Nathan Hazlett Kick)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+4 yds

Nathan Hazlett kickoff for 45 yds , Charlie Maxwell return for 4 yds to the Valpo 24

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.78

Aaron Dawson run for 20 yds to the Valpo 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.13

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Charlie Maxwell for no gain to the MorSt 44 for a 1ST down MOREHEAD ST Penalty, personal foul (Kameron Frye) to the MorSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete to Braden Contreras

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.30

Aaron Dawson run for 11 yds to the MorSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.70

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Aaron Dawson for a loss of 1 yard to the MorSt 31

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

4th & 11Field Goal Good+48 yds

Brian Bartholomew 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+28 yds

Brian Bartholomew kickoff for 55 yds , Gunnison Bloodgood return for 28 yds to the MorSt 38

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Chance Harris run for 1 yd to the MorSt 39

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Grady Cramer pass complete to Matt Guilfoil for 6 yds to the MorSt 45

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Matt Guilfoil, broken up by Tyler Days

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Kip Warren punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Becton at the Valpo 16

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.65

Aaron Dawson run for 11 yds to the Valpo 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.79

Aaron Dawson run for 34 yds to the MorSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jahni Clarke run for 4 yds to the MorSt 35

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Aaron Dawson run for 4 yds to the MorSt 31

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.56

Aaron Dawson run for 3 yds to the MorSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Aaron Dawson run for 28 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Brian Bartholomew kickoff for 64 yds , Gunnison Bloodgood return for 19 yds to the MorSt 20

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Chance Harris run for 4 yds to the MorSt 24

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Grady Cramer run for no gain to the MorSt 24

3rd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.04

Grady Cramer pass complete to Kyle Daly for 14 yds to the MorSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Grady Cramer run for 3 yds to the MorSt 41

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Chance Harris run for no gain to the MorSt 41

3rd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.50

Grady Cramer pass complete to Kyle Daly for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Kyle Daly

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

James Louis run for 2 yds to the Valpo 48

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Grady Cramer pass incomplete, broken up by Kevin Spelman

4th & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.57

Grady Cramer pass complete to Chance Harris for no gain to the Valpo 48

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Aaron Dawson run for 1 yd to the Valpo 49

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Aaron Dawson run for 2 yds to the MorSt 49

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Aaron Dawson run for 3 yds to the MorSt 46

4th & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -1.10

Evan Matthes run for 3 yds to the MorSt 43

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.98

Grady Cramer pass complete to Christian Graves for 8 yds to the Valpo 49

2nd & 2Penalty+15 yds

VALPARAISO Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Solomon Davis) to the Valpo 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Christian Graves

2nd & 10Pass Reception-8 ydsPPA -2.52

Grady Cramer pass complete to James Louis for 8 yds to the Valpo 26 MOREHEAD ST Penalty, illegal block (-16 Yards) to the Valpo 42

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Kyle Daly

3rd & 18Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.50

Grady Cramer pass complete to Gunnison Bloodgood for 22 yds to the Valpo 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Grady Cramer pass incomplete to Jeremiah Scott, broken up by Kohlton Sherman

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.01

Grady Cramer pass intercepted, touchback. Kohlton Sherman return for no gain

Situational Analysis

Valparaiso

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
47%
32 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
38%
13 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
0%
1 play
4th
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

Morehead State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
36%
28 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
17%
6 plays
43%
14 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
0%
1 play
33%
6 plays
83%
6 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
1 play