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← Back to GamesOct 15, 2022Week 7
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

North Dakota State by 6.1

Home Win Probability

North Dakota State 67%

Market (consensus)

North Dakota State -4

Edge: North Dakota State -4 (2.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 15, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
South Dakota State
7010623
North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State
1470021

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-714-721-721-1021-1721-2021-23
North Dakota StateSouth Dakota State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NDSSDSNDSSDSNDSSDSNDSSDSNDSSDSSDSNDSSDSNDSSDSNDSSDSNDSSDSTD775ydTD1175ydTD360ydPUNT33ydTD959ydPUNT612ydTO862ydPUNT3-7ydPUNT39ydEND13ydFG1061ydPUNT410ydTD1073ydPUNT66ydFG848ydPUNT417ydFG758ydDOWNS826ydEND213yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing South Dakota State and North Dakota State
StatisticSouth Dakota StateNorth Dakota State
Passing16-2117-23
Pass Yards152227
Rush Yards207127
Total Yards359354
Turnovers01
3rd Down7-134-10
Penalties7-405-57
Possession34:3525:25

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

South Dakota State
passing
Mark Gronowski
16/21, 152 YDS
rushing
Isaiah Davis
14 CAR, 114 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jadon Janke
7 REC, 83 YDS
North Dakota State
passing
Cam Miller
17/22, 227 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Hunter Luepke
15 CAR, 58 YDS
receiving
DJ Hart
4 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Cam Miller pass complete to Joe Stoffel for 9 yds to the NDkSt 34

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Hunter Luepke run for 2 yds to the NDkSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 8 yds to the NDkSt 44

2nd & 2Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.70

Hunter Luepke run for 12 yds to the SDkSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.60

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 14 yds to the SDkSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.51

Hunter Luepke run for 8 yds to the SDkSt 22

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.30

Cam Miller pass complete to DJ Hart for 22 yds for a TD, (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for no gain to the SDkSt 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.54

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Zach Heins for 10 yds to the SDkSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Isaiah Davis run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 38

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.10

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 18 yds to the NDkSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Isaiah Davis run for 3 yds to the NDkSt 41

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.86

Isaiah Davis run for 9 yds to the NDkSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDkSt 37

1st & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 4 yds to the NDkSt 33

2nd & 11Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.09

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for a loss of 1 yard to the NDkSt 34

3rd & 12Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.12

Isaiah Davis run for 15 yds to the NDkSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDkSt 24

1st & 15Rushing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +3.00

Isaiah Davis run for 24 yds for a TD, (Hunter Dustman KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+39 yds

Hunter Dustman kickoff for 64 yds , RaJa Nelson return for 39 yds to the NDkSt 40

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +1.78

Dominic Gonnella run for 25 yds to the SDkSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +0.92

Cam Miller pass complete to DJ Hart for 29 yds to the SDkSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Cam Miller run for 6 yds for a TD, (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDkSt 20

1st & 15Penalty-5 yds

SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, False Start (Isaiah Davis) to the SDkSt 15

1st & 20Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Isaiah Davis run for 5 yds to the SDkSt 20

2nd & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.13

Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 21

3rd & 14Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.07

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 7 yds to the SDkSt 28

4th & 7Punt+12 yds

Hunter Dustman punt for 43 yds , Jayden Price returns for 12 yds to the NDkSt 41

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Hunter Luepke run for 3 yds to the NDkSt 44

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

TK Marshall run for 4 yds to the NDkSt 48

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Hunter Luepke run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.26

Hunter Luepke run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Cam Miller run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 45

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.19

Cam Miller pass complete to TaMerik Williams for 9 yds to the SDkSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Hunter Luepke run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 34

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Cam Miller pass complete to RaJa Nelson for 4 yds to the SDkSt 30

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +3.50

Cam Miller pass complete to Hunter Luepke for 30 yds for a TD, (Griffin Crosa KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 7 yds to the SDkSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Isaiah Davis run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.05

Isaiah Davis run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.92

Mark Gronowski sacked by Luke Weerts for a loss of 7 yards to the SDkSt 30

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

3rd & 17Penalty-5 yds

SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDkSt 25

3rd & 22Penalty+5 yds

NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the SDkSt 30

3rd & 17Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.09

Isaiah Davis run for 7 yds to the SDkSt 37

4th & 10Punt+2 yds

Hunter Dustman punt for 47 yds , Jayden Price returns for 2 yds to the NDkSt 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.05

Cam Miller pass complete to Joe Stoffel for 9 yds to the NDkSt 27

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Hunter Luepke run for no gain to the NDkSt 27

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.71

Cam Miller run for 2 yds to the NDkSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.50

Cole Payton run for 16 yds to the NDkSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.94

Hunter Luepke run for 8 yds to the SDkSt 47

2nd & 2Penalty-15 yds

NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cam Miller) to the SDkSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Hunter Luepke run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 20

2nd & 9Interception0 ydsPPA -4.07

Cole Payton pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 6 yds to the SDkSt 24

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Amar Johnson run for no gain to the SDkSt 24

3rd & 4Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.48

Mark Gronowski sacked by Spencer Waege for a loss of 8 yards to the SDkSt 16

4th & 12Penalty-5 yds

SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jadon Janke) to the SDkSt 11

4th & 17Punt+38 yds

Hunter Dustman punt for 38 yds , Jayden Price returns for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Cam Miller run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 47

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Cam Miller pass complete to TaMerik Williams for 3 yds to the SDkSt 44

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Cam Miller pass complete to DJ Hart for 3 yds to the SDkSt 41

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Kaedin Steindorf punt for 40 yds, downed at the SDkSt 1

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Mark Gronowski run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 4

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Isaiah Davis run for 6 yds to the SDkSt 31

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.99

Amar Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDkSt 30

3rd & 5Penalty+15 yds

NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Roughing the Passer on WAEGE, Spencer enforced (Spencer Waege) to the NDkSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Amar Johnson for 2 yds to the NDkSt 36

3rd & 8Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.87

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 21 yds to the NDkSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Amar Johnson run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 14

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+31 yds

Hunter Dustman 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 13 yds to the NDkSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.58

Dominic Gonnella run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDkSt 35

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Cam Miller pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Cam Miller pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Kaedin Steindorf punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jadon Janke at the SDkSt 27

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Isaiah Davis run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 31

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.01

Isaiah Davis run for 6 yds to the SDkSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.99

Mark Gronowski sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the SDkSt 29

2nd & 18Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Amar Johnson run for 15 yds to the SDkSt 44

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.62

Amar Johnson run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Josh Buri run for 3 yds to the NDkSt 49

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Mark Gronowski run for 3 yds to the NDkSt 46

3rd & 4Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.22

Isaiah Davis run for 27 yds to the NDkSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Mark Gronowski run for 3 yds to the NDkSt 16

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.72

Amar Johnson run for 16 yds for a TD, (Hunter Dustman KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Hunter Dustman kickoff for 65 yds , RaJa Nelson return for 18 yds to the NDkSt 18

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Hunter Luepke run for 2 yds to the NDkSt 20

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Hunter Luepke run for 7 yds to the NDkSt 27

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.71

Hunter Luepke run for 2 yds to the NDkSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Cody Mauch) to the NDkSt 17

2nd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Cam Miller pass incomplete

3rd & 22Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.02

Cam Miller run for 7 yds to the NDkSt 24

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Kaedin Steindorf punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jadon Janke at the SDkSt 31

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Amar Johnson run for 6 yds to the SDkSt 37

2nd & 4Rush+29 ydsPPA +2.29

Amar Johnson run for 29 yds to the NDkSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.26

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Zach Heins for 10 yds to the NDkSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gus Miller) to the NDkSt 33

1st & 19Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Canyon Bauer for 3 yds to the NDkSt 30

2nd & 16Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.60

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 9 yds to the NDkSt 21

3rd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.68

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for no gain to the NDkSt 21

4th & 7Field Goal Good+38 yds

Hunter Dustman 38 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Hunter Dustman kickoff for 64 yds , RaJa Nelson return for 14 yds to the NDkSt 49 NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Eli Green) to the NDkSt 1

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.36

Cam Miller pass complete to Logan Hofstedt for 10 yds to the NDkSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

TaMerik Williams run for 5 yds to the NDkSt 23

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Hunter Luepke run for 2 yds to the NDkSt 25

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Cam Miller run for no gain to the NDkSt 25

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Kaedin Steindorf punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jadon Janke at the SDkSt 41

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +2.04

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 39 yds to the NDkSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Amar Johnson run for 6 yds to the NDkSt 14

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Amar Johnson run for 4 yds to the NDkSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Amar Johnson run for 4 yds to the NDkSt 6

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Amar Johnson run for 5 yds to the NDkSt 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Isaiah Davis run for no gain to the NDkSt 1

4th & 1Field Goal Good+18 yds

Hunter Dustman 18 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Hunter Luepke run for 4 yds to the NDkSt 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Cam Miller pass complete to DJ Hart for 5 yds to the NDkSt 34

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.86

Cam Miller run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.48

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 16 yds to the SDkSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Cam Miller pass complete to Zach Mathis for 2 yds to the SDkSt 47

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.52

Cam Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDkSt 49

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Cam Miller pass incomplete

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Cam Miller pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.87

Mark Gronowski run for 14 yds to the NDkSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Kneel down by GRONOWSKI, Mark at NDS38 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

South Dakota State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
21 plays
50%
4 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
50%
6 plays
43%
7 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
3 plays
4th

North Dakota State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
59%
22 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
29%
7 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play