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← Back to GamesSep 17, 2022Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Ball State by 8.2

Home Win Probability

Ball State 70%

Market (consensus)

Ball State -21

Edge: Murray State +21 (12.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 17, 2022

Line Movement

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Murray State
00000
Ball StateBall State
7710731

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-021-024-031-0
Ball StateMurray State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSBSMSBSMSBSMSBSMSBSMSBSMSBSMSBSMSBSMSBSMSBSMSBSMSBSMSBSDOWNS622ydTD443ydPUNT36ydDOWNS620ydPUNT38ydPUNT30ydTO10ydPUNT32ydPUNT936ydPUNT621ydPUNT36ydTD855ydPUNT421ydDOWNS646ydPUNT613ydPUNT832ydEND312ydTD975ydPUNT34ydFG1076ydPUNT2-7ydTD1153ydTO429ydTO3-6ydDOWNS44ydPUNT420ydTO2-4ydEND939yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Murray State and Ball State
StatisticMurray StateBall State
Passing8-2327-44
Pass Yards68227
Rush Yards87249
Total Yards155476
Turnovers31
3rd Down3-149-20
Penalties4-356-73
Possession23:3236:28

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Murray State
passing
Isaac McNamee
7/22, 57 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Jawaun Northington
17 CAR, 71 YDS
receiving
DeQuan Dallas
2 REC, 27 YDS
defense
Ball State
passing
John Paddock
27/44, 227 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Carson Steele
25 CAR, 141 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jayshon Jackson
6 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Cortezz Jones run for 2 yds to the MurrS 23

2nd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.37

LaMartez Brooks pass complete to Dameon Gomes for 11 yds to the MurrS 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to Quindarrius Mayes

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

LaMartez Brooks run for 3 yds to the MurrS 37

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Isaac McNamee pass complete to Dameon Gomes for 6 yds to the MurrS 43

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.63

Cortezz Jones run for no gain to the MurrS 43

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.63

Cortezz Jones run for no gain to the MurrS 43

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.94

John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for no gain to the MurrS 43

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.72

John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 8 yds to the MurrS 35

3rd & 2Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.03

Will Jones run for 22 yds to the MurrS 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 13 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.71

Jawaun Northington run for 8 yds to the MurrS 24

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.13

LaMartez Brooks run for 2 yds to the MurrS 22

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to DeQuan Dallas

4th & 4Punt+14 yds

Lewis Halton punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 45 , Jayshon Jackson returns for 14 yds to the BalSt 45

4th & 4Punt+14 yds

Lewis Halton punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 45 , Jayshon Jackson returns for 14 yds to the BalSt 45

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner Koziol

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.25

John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 15 yds to the MurrS 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

John Paddock pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-Rahman

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

John Paddock pass complete to Dean Tate for 4 yds to the MurrS 36

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.83

John Paddock pass complete to Will Jones for 1 yd to the MurrS 35

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.00

John Paddock pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-Rahman

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.00

John Paddock pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-Rahman

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Jawaun Northington run for no gain to the MurrS 35

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MurrS 34

3rd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.47

Isaac McNamee pass complete to Taylor Shields for 9 yds to the MurrS 43

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Lewis Halton punt for 57 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 20

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

John Paddock pass incomplete to Carson Steele

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner Koziol

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Lucas Borrow punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MurrS 40

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.24

Isaac McNamee pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 47

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 49

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Lucas Borrow punt for 32 yds

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.08

Jawaun Northington run for 9 yds to the MurrS 28

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

LaMartez Brooks run for 1 yd to the MurrS 27

3rd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.45

DeQuan Dallas run for 9 yds to the MurrS 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jawaun Northington run for 4 yds to the MurrS 40

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Cortezz Jones run for no gain to the MurrS 40

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.30

Isaac McNamee pass complete to Jake Saathoff for 8 yds to the MurrS 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Cortezz Jones run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jawaun Northington run for 5 yds to the BalSt 45

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to Jake Saathoff

4th & 3Blocked Punt+11 yds

Lewis Halton punt blocked by Nic Jones blocked by Nic Jones

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 35

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 4 yds to the BalSt 39

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.99

John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 6 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.86

Carson Steele run for 11 yds to the MurrS 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

John Paddock pass complete to Vaughn Pemberton for 4 yds to the MurrS 40

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY Ball False Start (Schmidt,Seth) 5 yards from Murray40 to Murray45. NO PLAY.

3rd & 11Punt0 yds

Lucas Borrow punt for 45 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

LaMartez Brooks run for 5 yds to the MurrS 25

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Cortezz Jones run for 1 yd to the MurrS 26

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to DeQuan Dallas

4th & 4Punt+11 yds

Lewis Halton punt for 40 yds , Jayshon Jackson returns for 11 yds to the BalSt 45

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.42

John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 3 yds to the BalSt 48

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson

3rd & 7Penalty+15 yds

MURRAY ST Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Bolden,Jaylon) 15 yards from Murray48 to Murray33, 1ST DOWN. (Nick Walker) to the MurrS 33

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the MurrS 31

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the MurrS 24

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the MurrS 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.94

John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 18 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

BALL ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MurrS 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to DeQuan Dallas

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Jawaun Northington run for 2 yds to the MurrS 33

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to Jake Saathoff

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Lewis Halton punt for 51 yds

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.02

Jayshon Jackson run for 26 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.09

John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 13 yds to the MurrS 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

John Paddock pass incomplete to Dean Tate

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner Koziol

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.51

John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 7 yds to the MurrS 38

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.97

John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner Koziol

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jawaun Northington run for 3 yds to the MurrS 41

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

MURRAY ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MurrS 36

3rd & 12Rush+20 ydsPPA +3.51

Jawaun Northington run for 20 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY Murray False Start (Northington,Jawaun) 5 yards from Ball44 to Ball49. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to DeQuan Dallas

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to Jake Saathoff

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to DeQuan Dallas

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Lewis Halton punt for 27 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.15

John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the BalSt 28

3rd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.78

John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 10 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.20

John Paddock pass complete to Ryan Lezon for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the MurrS 46

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner Koziol

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Lucas Borrow punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dameon Gomes at the MurrS 10

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jawaun Northington run for no gain to the MurrS 10

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.81

Jawaun Northington run for 11 yds to the MurrS 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MurrS 22

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.98

Carson Steele run for 22 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 4 yds to the MurrS 46

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.38

John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 4 yds to the MurrS 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the MurrS 37

2nd & 5Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.57

Vaughn Pemberton run for 16 yds to the MurrS 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.21

John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 12 yds to the MurrS 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Penalty-10 yds

Jackson,Jayshon rush left for 2 yards gain to the Murray07 (Powell,Lawaun) PENALTY Ball Holding (Boggs,Joseph) 10 yards from Murray09 to Murray19. NO PLAY.

1st & 19Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the MurrS 14

2nd & 14Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +3.03

John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 14 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.70

Isaac McNamee pass complete to LaMartez Brooks for no gain to the MurrS 25

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Dameon Gomes run for 4 yds to the MurrS 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to DeQuan Dallas

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Lewis Halton punt for 44 yds , Jayshon Jackson returns for no gain to the BalSt 27

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Lewis Halton punt for 44 yds , Jayshon Jackson returns for no gain to the BalSt 14

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 5 yds to the BalSt 19

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.58

John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 7 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the BalSt 31

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.25

Carson Steele run for 10 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.65

Carson Steele run for 23 yds to the MurrS 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.43

John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 19 yds to the MurrS 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Vaughn Pemberton run for 2 yds to the MurrS 15

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Vaughn Pemberton run for 5 yds to the MurrS 10

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Carson Steele run for no gain to the MurrS 10

4th & 3Field Goal Good+27 yds

Ben VonGunten 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

LaMartez Brooks run for 3 yds to the MurrS 22

2nd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.18

Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MurrS 23

3rd & 12Penalty-5 yds

Shotgun McNamee,Isaac pass incomplete short left to Dallas,DeQuan QB hurried by Mims,Kyron PENALTY Murray Illegal Touch-Pass (Frye,Jacob) 5 yards from Murray23 to Murray18. NO PLAY.

4th & 17Punt+1 yds

Lewis Halton punt for 36 yds , Dean Tate returns for 1 yd to the BalSt 47

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 49

2nd & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.75

John Paddock pass complete to Ryan Lezon for 15 yds to the MurrS 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the MurrS 30

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.11

Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the MurrS 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the MurrS 22

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.26

John Paddock pass complete to Dean Tate for 7 yds to the MurrS 15

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.19

Vaughn Pemberton run for 2 yds to the MurrS 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the MurrS 8

2nd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.19

John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 2 yds to the MurrS 6

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.72

Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the MurrS 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Carson Steele run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.98

Isaac McNamee pass complete to DeQuan Dallas for 22 yds to the MurrS 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Jawaun Northington run for no gain to the MurrS 47

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Isaac McNamee pass complete to Deshun Britten for 7 yds to the BalSt 46

3rd & 3Interception0 ydsPPA -2.33

Isaac McNamee pass intercepted

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.40

John Paddock sacked by Nick Walker for a loss of 9 yards to the BalSt 33

2nd & 19Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Ryan Lezon run for 3 yds to the BalSt 36

3rd & 16Penalty-15 yds

BALL ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Jawaun Northington run for 2 yds to the BalSt 14

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Jawaun Northington run for 2 yds to the BalSt 12

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to Taylor Shields

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.65

Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to Taylor Shields

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.04

Carson Steele run for 18 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the BalSt 31

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the BalSt 32

3rd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Dean Tate run for no gain to the BalSt 32

4th & 8Punt+13 yds

Lucas Borrow punt for 52 yds for a 1ST down , Dameon Gomes returns for 13 yds to the MurrS 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to Taylor Shields

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+4 ydsPPA -1.47

Isaac McNamee run for 4 yds to the MurrS 40 Isaac McNamee fumbled, recovered by MurrS Brandon Berger

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+4 ydsPPA -1.47

Isaac McNamee run for 4 yds to the MurrS 40 Isaac McNamee fumbled, recovered by MurrS Brandon Berger

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Rico Barfield run for 1 yd to the MurrS 41

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Rico Barfield run for 1 yd to the MurrS 40

3rd & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.40

Rico Barfield run for 17 yds to the MurrS 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Rico Barfield run for 3 yds to the MurrS 20

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Rico Barfield run for 3 yds to the MurrS 17

3rd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.74

Rico Barfield run for 10 yds to the MurrS 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Rico Barfield run for 3 yds to the MurrS 4

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Rico Barfield run for 3 yds to the MurrS 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Rico Barfield run for no gain to the MurrS 1

Situational Analysis

Murray State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
21%
19 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
36%
11 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Ball State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
38%
37 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
8 plays
50%
18 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
71%
7 plays
60%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays