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← Back to GamesOct 15, 2022Week 7

House Prediction

Model Margin

Buffalo by 13

Home Win Probability

Massachusetts 22%

Market (consensus)

Massachusetts +17

Edge: Massachusetts +17 (4.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 15, 2022

Line Movement

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BuffaloBuffalo
3213734
MassachusettsMassachusetts
07007

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-30-107-177-247-277-34
MassachusettsBuffalo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MASBUFMASBUFMASBUFMASBUFMASBUFMASBUFMASBUFMASBUFMASBUFMASBUFMASBUFMASBUFPUNT3-9ydFG728ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT832ydTD780ydPUNT419ydTD284ydTD1075ydTD591ydPUNT417ydTO1067ydEND1-1ydPUNT613ydPUNT418ydFG1044ydPUNT532ydTO726ydPUNT32ydTD662ydDOWNS1065ydPUNT39ydPUNT520ydEND55yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Buffalo and Massachusetts
StatisticBuffaloMassachusetts
Passing20-318-19
Pass Yards277108
Rush Yards203112
Total Yards480220
Turnovers30
3rd Down8-154-14
Penalties6-645-50
Possession32:4027:20

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Buffalo
passing
Cole Snyder
20/31, 277 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Al-Jay Henderson
5 CAR, 99 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jamari Gassett
4 REC, 85 YDS
defense
James Patterson
2 TFL, 1 PD
Massachusetts
passing
Garrett Dzuro
7/14, 99 YDS
rushing
Kay'Ron Adams
11 CAR, 65 YDS
receiving
George Johnson
2 REC, 52 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 23

3rd & 12Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.17

Garrett Dzuro sacked by Ibrahim Kante for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 16

4th & 19Punt-2 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 31 yds , Quian Williams returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 49

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the UMass 46

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the UMass 40

3rd & 1Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.08

Ron Cook Jr. run for 14 yds to the UMass 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.71

Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 28

2nd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 4 yds to the UMass 24

3rd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the UMass 21

4th & 5Field Goal Good+39 yds

Alex McNulty 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the UMass 25

2nd & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.53

Garrett Dzuro sacked by Ibrahim Kante and Jaylon Bass for a loss of 6 yards to the UMass 19

3rd & 16Fumble Recovery (Own)+1 ydsPPA -0.05

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 1 yd Greg Desrosiers Jr. fumbled, recovered by UMass

4th & 15Punt+2 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 35 yds , Quian Williams returns for 2 yds to the Buff 47

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.80

Mike Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 44

2nd & 13Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 7 yds to the UMass 49

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

4th & 6Penalty-5 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jaylon Bass) to the Buff 46

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 54 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Garrett Dzuro run for 5 yds to the UMass 25

2nd & 5Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.35

Garrett Dzuro run for 13 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.58

Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 35

2nd & 13Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Garrett Dzuro run for 2 yds to the UMass 37

3rd & 11Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.74

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Isaac Ross for 25 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 36

2nd & 8Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.79

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Isaac Ross for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 40

3rd & 12Penalty0 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined

4th & 20Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +3.38

Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 44 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the UMass 31

2nd & 5Rush+22 ydsPPA +0.50

Mike Washington run for 22 yds to the UMass 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Penalty0 yds

WASHINGTON, Mike rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the UMA7 (JOHNSON, Gerrell;MATHURIN, Cletus), clock 01:30. PENALTY Before the snap, UMA Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the UMA9 to the UMA5. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the UMass 1

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 2

3rd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.44

Quian Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 4

4th & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.98

Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 13 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Garrett Dzuro run for 1 yd to the UMass 39

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 42

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 44

4th & 4Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Quian Williams at the Buff 16

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+84 ydsPPA +7.04

Al-Jay Henderson run for 84 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kay'Ron Adams run for 2 yds to the UMass 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.84

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to George Johnson III for 25 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.68

Kay'Ron Adams run for 12 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.35

Kay'Ron Adams run for 13 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.70

Kay'Ron Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 24

3rd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.25

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Isaac Ross for 12 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Gino Campiotti run for 6 yds to the Buff 6

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Kay'Ron Adams run for 1 yd to the Buff 5

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.65

Ellis Merriweather run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

CJ Kolodziey kickoff for 62 yds , Quian Williams return for 15 yds to the 50 yard line BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Max Michel) to the Buff 2

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 12

2nd & 7Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.20

Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 39 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the UMass 49

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.04

Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for no gain to the UMass 49

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+49 ydsPPA +5.90

Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 49 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Alex McNulty kickoff for 56 yds , Greg Desrosiers Jr. return for 19 yds to the MASS 46 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tristan Armstrong) to the UMass 5

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.71

Garrett Dzuro run for 11 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.15

Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 26

2nd & 13Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.51

Kay'Ron Adams run for 9 yds to the UMass 35

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the Buff 14

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Mike Washington run for no gain to the Buff 14

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.20

Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for 7 yds to the Buff 21

3rd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.28

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 10 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.36

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 9 yds to the Buff 40

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.41

Mike Washington run for no gain to the Buff 40

3rd & 1Penalty+15 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Cletus Mathurin) to the UMass 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

SNYDER, Cole pass to the left complete for -1 yard to COOK, Ron caught at the UMA47 and advanced to the UMA45 (WALLACE, Josh). PENALTY Before the snap, UMA Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the UMA44 to the UMA39. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Cole Snyder run for 4 yds to the UMass 35

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 3 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.52

Cole Snyder pass intercepted Jordan Mahoney fumbled, recovered by UMass Javon Batten

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

[NH] Kneel down by DZURO, Garrett at UMA18 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the Buff 31

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA +1.05

Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 2 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 38

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt+10 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 37 yds , Isaac Ross returns for 10 yds to the UMass 35

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Ellis Merriweather run for 13 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.80

Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 45

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete

3rd & 13Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Garrett Dzuro run for 8 yds to the Buff 47

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 34

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.67

Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 11 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the UMass 49

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.65

Cole Snyder run for 8 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.52

Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 15 yds to the UMass 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the UMass 25

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 4 yds to the UMass 21

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+39 yds

Alex McNulty 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 23

2nd & 12Penalty+15 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, Roughing the Passer on BAZILE, C.J. enforced (C.J. Bazile) to the Buff 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Kay'Ron Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 36

3rd & 11Penalty0 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined

4th & 18Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Quian Williams at the Buff 12

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the Buff 15

2nd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.96

Cole Snyder pass complete to Ray Embry for 12 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

HENDERSON, Al-Jay rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the BUF30, End of Play. PENALTY Before the snap, BUF False Start enforced 5 yards from the BUF27 to the BUF22. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

2nd & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Cole Snyder run for 4 yds to the Buff 26

3rd & 11Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.19

Cole Snyder run for 12 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the Buff 38

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.96

Cole Snyder pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 37

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.60

Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 19 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the UMass 43

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.48

Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 13 yds to the UMass 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the UMass 27

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Cole Snyder pass incomplete

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +3.62

Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 27 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Alex McNulty kickoff for 64 yds , Greg Desrosiers Jr. return for 18 yds to the UMass 19

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, Illegal use of the hands on FOLSOM, Daishon enforced (Daishon Folsom) to the UMass 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Zamar Wise run for 2 yds to the UMass 40

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Kay'Ron Adams run for 1 yd to the UMass 41

3rd & 7Penalty+15 yds

WISE, Zamar pass to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, George thrown to the BUF25. PENALTY BUF Pass Interference on BROWN, Solomon enforced 15 yards to the BUF44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Zamar Wise pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Kay'Ron Adams run for 8 yds to the Buff 36

3rd & 2Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.04

Kay'Ron Adams run for 17 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.45

Zamar Wise run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 20

2nd & 11Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.10

Zamar Wise run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 24

3rd & 15Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Zamar Wise run for 8 yds to the Buff 16

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.37

Zamar Wise pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the Buff 20

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the Buff 23

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Buff 25

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Anthony Venneri punt for 61 yds, downed at the UMass 14

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Zamar Wise run for 7 yds to the UMass 21

2nd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.53

Zamar Wise pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 9 yds to the UMass 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Zamar Wise pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 34

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Zamar Wise pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 55 yds, downed at the Buff 11

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.85

Al-Jay Henderson run for 9 yds to the Buff 20

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

[NH] Kneel down by BUF at BUF21 (team loss of 2).

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.22

[NH] Kneel down by BUF at BUF18 (team loss of 3).

3rd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.06

[NH] Kneel down by BUF at BUF16 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
32%
25 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
50%
12 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Massachusetts

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
32%
25 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
18%
11 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
1 play
67%
6 plays
4th
0%
1 play