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← Back to GamesSep 3, 2022Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

NC State by 3.8

Home Win Probability

East Carolina 39%

Market (consensus)

East Carolina +12.5

Edge: East Carolina +12.5 (8.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 3, 2022

Line Movement

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NC StateNC State
1470021
East CarolinaEast Carolina
707620

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-77-147-2114-2120-21
East CarolinaNC State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ECNSECNSECNSECECNSECNSECNSECNSNSECNSECNSECNSECNSECNSTO220ydPUNT35ydTD770ydPUNT37ydPUNT36ydTD864ydTD33ydPUNT525ydPUNT35ydTO730ydPUNT518ydPUNT532ydTD1285ydPUNT39ydEND114ydPUNT619ydTD1379ydTO1274ydPUNT31ydDOWNS620ydDOWNS852ydTO20ydTD427ydPUNT30ydMISS647ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing NC State and East Carolina
StatisticNC StateEast Carolina
Passing17-3325-41
Pass Yards211267
Rush Yards133116
Total Yards344383
Turnovers22
3rd Down4-139-17
Penalties8-732-20
Possession27:4232:18

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

NC State
passing
Devin Leary
17/33, 211 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Demie Sumo
14 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Thayer Thomas
4 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
defense
East Carolina
passing
Holton Ahlers
25/41, 267 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Holton Ahlers
5 CAR, 57 YDS
receiving
C.J. Johnson
6 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Collin Smith kickoff for 62 yds , Keaton Mitchell return for 19 yds to the ECaro 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.71

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 20 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.44

Holton Ahlers pass intercepted Tyler Baker-Williams return for no gain to the NCSt 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 5 yds to the NCSt 38

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane

4th & 5Punt+10 yds

Shane McDonough punt for 42 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 10 yds to the ECaro 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 6 yds to the ECaro 36

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen Johnson

3rd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.16

Holton Ahlers run for 10 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 3 yds to the ECaro 49

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

3rd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.36

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 11 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+39 ydsPPA +3.14

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 39 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Owen Daffer kickoff for 54 yds , Julian Gray return for 19 yds to the NCSt 30

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the NCSt 35

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSt 37

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Trent Pennix

4th & 3Punt+9 yds

Shane McDonough punt for 52 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 9 yds to the ECaro 20

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 18

2nd & 12Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.28

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 8 yds to the ECaro 26

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen Johnson

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 36

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 6 yds to the NCSt 42

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.74

Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 6 yds to the ECaro 46

2nd & 4Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.78

Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 14 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Porter Rooks) to the ECaro 37

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter

2nd & 15Penalty-5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Chandler Zavala) to the ECaro 42

2nd & 20Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 6 yds to the ECaro 36

3rd & 14Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.62

Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 24 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 12 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

Collin Smith kickoff for 59 yds , Keaton Mitchell return for 11 yds to the ECaro 17

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 20

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead

4th & 7Blocked Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt blocked by Jasiah Provillon returned by Sean Brown for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Collin Smith kickoff for 65 yds , Keaton Mitchell return for 19 yds to the ECaro 19

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 19

2nd & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.12

Holton Ahlers run for 20 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 41

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 3 yds to the ECaro 44

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 18

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jordan Houston run for no gain to the NCSt 18

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 5 yds to the NCSt 23

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter

4th & 5Punt+6 yds

Shane McDonough punt for 48 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 6 yds to the ECaro 35

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen Johnson

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.60

Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECaro 35

3rd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.58

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 10 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 8 yds to the NCSt 47

3rd & 2Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.63

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Kerry King for 12 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+27 ydsPPA -4.03

Holton Ahlers pass intercepted Shyheim Battle return for 27 yds to the NCSt 42

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Leary, Devin pass incomplete to Jones, Darryl, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference (Jones, Darryl) 15 yards to the NCSTATE27, NO PLAY.

1st & 25Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.33

Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 15 yds to the NCSt 42

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.42

Devin Leary pass complete to Darryl Jones for 16 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the ECaro 40

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Trent Pennix

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Devin Leary pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Shane McDonough punt for 39 yds, downed at the ECaro 1

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.24

Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 1

2nd & 10Rush+28 ydsPPA +1.46

Keaton Mitchell run for 28 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 30

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 33

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Kerry King

4th & 6Punt+52 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the EASTCRLINA 25 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Derrek Pitts Jr.) to the NCSt 15

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.44

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for no gain to the NCSt 15

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane

3rd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.83

Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 18 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the NCSt 36

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 4 yds to the NCSt 40

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Devin Leary run for 2 yds to the NCSt 42

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.16

Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan Houston

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.34

Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 17 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.20

Devin Leary pass complete to Darryl Jones for 14 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.68

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 24 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Collin Smith kickoff for 42 yds , Malik Fleming return for 13 yds to the ECaro 36 Malik Fleming fumbled, recovered by ECaro

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 8 yds to the ECaro 44

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.36

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Rahjai Harris

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.78

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 45

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 55 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.05

Jordan Houston run for 14 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+12 yds

Owen Daffer kickoff for 61 yds , Julian Gray return for 12 yds to the NCSt 16

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSt 20

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.72

Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.88

Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 10 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSt 41

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Jordan Houston run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 40

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Timothy McKay) to the NCSt 35

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Darryl Jones

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Shane McDonough punt for 44 yds, fair catch by C.J. Johnson at the ECaro 21

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the ECaro 26

2nd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.79

Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 24

3rd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.61

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 9 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.10

Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 32

2nd & 11Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.29

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 12 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the NCSt 36

2nd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.47

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 12 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the NCSt 17

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead

3rd & 3Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.92

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 16 yds to the NCSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.96

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for no gain to the NCSt 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the NCSt 1

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 1 yd for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 20

1st & 15Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -0.37

Devin Leary run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 19 Devin Leary fumbled, recovered by NCSt Dylan McMahon

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan Houston

3rd & 16Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.07

Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 16 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Jordan Houston run for 8 yds to the NCSt 43

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.52

Jordan Houston run for 9 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.00

Devin Leary pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 24 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 4 yds to the ECaro 20

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the ECaro 17

3rd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.54

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 9 yds to the ECaro 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Devin Leary pass complete to Julian Gray for 6 yds to the ECaro 2

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jasiah Provillon

3rd & 0Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 yds

Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the ECaro 1 Jordan Houston fumbled, forced by Myles Berry, recovered by ECaro Gerard Stringer

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen Johnson

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.09

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 2

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen Johnson

4th & 9Punt+18 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 39 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 18 yds to the ECaro 23

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter Rooks

2nd & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.14

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 22 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for no gain to the ECaro 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for no gain to the ECaro 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for no gain to the ECaro 1

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -4.21

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 3

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 3 yds to the ECaro 6

2nd & 7Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.27

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 3

3rd & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.18

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 21 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.22

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 25 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Ahlers, Holton rush for 9 yards to the NCSTATE42, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (Moorer, Parker) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA39, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.80

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 37

2nd & 22Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.22

Holton Ahlers run for 18 yds to the NCSt 45

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Ryan Jones

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.18

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jaylen Johnson

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jordan Houston run for no gain to the NCSt 45

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return+34 ydsPPA -1.56

Devin Leary pass intercepted Jireh Wilson return for 34 yds to the NCSt 27

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the NCSt 25

2nd & 8Penalty+13 yds

Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Johnson, Jaylen, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference 13 yards to the NCSTATE12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 5 yds to the NCSt 7

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the NCSt 3

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.47

Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Jordan Houston run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 22

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane

3rd & 13Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.04

Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 3 yds to the NCSt 25

4th & 10Punt+4 yds

Shane McDonough punt for 40 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 4 yds to the ECaro 29 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (Demetrius Mauney) to the ECaro 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 3 yds to the ECaro 32

2nd & 7Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +3.28

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 37 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the NCSt 30

2nd & 9Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.34

Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 33

3rd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.81

Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the NCSt 24

4th & 1Field Goal Missed+42 yds

Owen Daffer 42 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.85

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 22

Situational Analysis

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
46%
24 plays
33%
3 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
56%
9 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

East Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
35%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
33%
12 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
57%
7 plays
4th
0%
1 play