Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 29, 2022Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Massachusetts by 1.5

Home Win Probability

Massachusetts 56%

Market (consensus)

Massachusetts +1

Edge: Massachusetts +1 (2.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 29, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
New Mexico StateNew Mexico State
0106723
MassachusettsMassachusetts
3100013

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-010-010-313-1013-1613-23
MassachusettsNew Mexico State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSPUNT32ydPUNT34ydPUNT3-11ydFG518ydPUNT426ydPUNT421ydPUNT713ydTD483ydPUNT626ydTO10ydFG48ydPUNT38ydPUNT30ydPUNT39ydTD269ydFG941ydEND1-1ydPUNT35ydFG664ydPUNT31ydFG637ydPUNT617ydPUNT443ydPUNT1041ydTD888ydDOWNS811ydEND3-6yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing New Mexico State and Massachusetts
StatisticNew Mexico StateMassachusetts
Passing14-2515-28
Pass Yards22397
Rush Yards111162
Total Yards334259
Turnovers01
3rd Down0-123-15
Penalties10-6910-95
Possession30:5729:03

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

New Mexico State
passing
Diego Pavia
7/12, 194 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Diego Pavia
8 CAR, 56 YDS
receiving
Justice Powers
3 REC, 81 YDS
defense
Massachusetts
passing
Brady Olson
15/28, 97 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Ellis Merriweather
23 CAR, 84 YDS
receiving
George Johnson
4 REC, 34 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 6 yds to the NMxSt 32

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Thomaz Whitford) to the NMxSt 27

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 28

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 35 yds, downed at the UMass 37

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 35 yds, downed at the UMass 37

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 41

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Brady Olson pass complete to Eni Falayi for 5 yds to the UMass 46

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the UMass 46

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UMass 41

4th & 6Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 40 yds, downed at the NMxSt 19

4th & 6Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.53

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for no gain to the NMxSt 19

3rd & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.18

Gavin Frakes sacked by Marcus Cushnie for a loss of 11 yards to the NMxSt 8

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

4th & 21Punt+1 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 35 yds , Isaac Ross returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 9 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Running Into the kicker on GOODEN, Darius ( Yards) declined

4th & 21Punt+1 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 35 yds , Isaac Ross returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 9 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Running Into the kicker on GOODEN, Darius ( Yards) declined

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.57

Ellis Merriweather run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.47

Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the NMxSt 26

2nd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the NMxSt 31

3rd & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Ellis Merriweather run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 24

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 31

4th & 8Field Goal Good+41 yds

Cameron Carson 41 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +2.52

Gavin Frakes run for 29 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.31

Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 49

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

2nd & 11Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.34

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Star Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 49

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 27 yds

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UMass 24

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.39

Ellis Merriweather run for 16 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the UMass 40

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Brady Olson pass incomplete

3rd & 10Penalty+5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offsides (Lazarus Williams) to the UMass 45

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Brady Olson pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Jamoni Jones run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 39

2nd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.39

Gavin Frakes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 38

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 3 yds to the NMxSt 41

4th & 1Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA +2.02

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 2 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.74

Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 40

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Bryce Childress for 5 yds to the NMxSt 45

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaac Ross at the UMass 17

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaac Ross at the UMass 17

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Kay'Ron Adams run for 2 yds to the UMass 19

2nd & 8Uncategorized+15 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Linwood Crump) to the UMass 34 for a 1ST down

2nd & 8Penalty+15 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UMass 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Brady Olson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+66 ydsPPA +6.32

Kay'Ron Adams run for 66 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.40

Ahmonte Watkins run for no gain to the NMxSt 13 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Thomaz Whitford) to the NMxSt 7

1st & 16Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.38

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Bryce Childress for 15 yds to the NMxSt 22

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30

2nd & 5Penalty+10 yds

FRAKES, Gavin pass to the right incomplete intended for POWERS, Justice broken up by FERRELL, Jalon at the NMS35. PENALTY UMA Holding on RUDOLPH, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the NMS30 to the NMS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.32

Ahmonte Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 39

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Isaac Ross at the UMass 21

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.67

Brady Olson pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Jordin Parker run for 7 yds to the UMass 25

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UMass 30

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Chris Bellamy) to the UMass 35

2nd & 13Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.99

Gavin Frakes run for 11 yds to the UMass 24

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the UMass 24

4th & 2Field Goal Good+41 yds

Ethan Albertson 41 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 29

2nd & 6Penalty0 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declined

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Isaac Ross at the UMass 21

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UMass 16

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 18

2nd & 13Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Brady Olson pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 5 yds to the UMass 23

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Brady Olson pass complete to George Johnson III for 7 yds to the UMass 30

4th & 1Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 39 yds, downed at the NMxSt 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.47

Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 30 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+39 ydsPPA +3.14

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 39 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Brady Olson pass complete to Onuma Dieke for 3 yds to the UMass 45

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 49

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Brady Olson pass incomplete

4th & 3Penalty+5 yds

KOLODZIEY, CJ punt 30 yards to the NMS21 downed by JOHNSON, Gerrell, clock 00:58. PENALTY NMS Running Into the kicker on MCLEAN, Malachi enforced 5 yards from the UMA49 to the NMS46 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Kay'Ron Adams run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 44

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Brady Olson pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 5 yds to the NMxSt 39

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.18

Ellis Merriweather run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Brady Olson pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 5 yds to the NMxSt 26

2nd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.18

Brady Olson pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 9 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Good+35 yds

Cameron Carson 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

[NHSG] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at NMS28 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 27

2nd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.72

Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 24

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Brady Olson pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 5 yds to the UMass 29

4th & 5Punt-3 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 45 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 23

1st & 10Rush+48 ydsPPA +3.42

Diego Pavia run for 48 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.23

Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 14 yds to the UMass 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 16

2nd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.18

Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the UMass 9

3rd & 4Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.77

Thomaz Whitford run for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 13

4th & 8Field Goal Good+30 yds

Ethan Albertson 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kay'Ron Adams run for 1 yd to the UMass 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Brady Olson pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Brady Olson pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 37 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for no gain to the NMxSt 37

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Illegal Snap on YARRO, Canaan enforced (Canaan Yarro) to the NMxSt 32

1st & 15Penalty+15 yds

PAVIA, Diego pass to the right incomplete intended for JONES, Jamoni thrown to the UMA43. PENALTY UMA Pass Interference on WALLACE, Josh enforced 15 yards to the NMS47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 46

2nd & 11Penalty+15 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jordan Mahoney) to the UMass 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the UMass 19

3rd & 3Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.82

Diego Pavia sacked by Jalen Stewart and Marcus Cushnie for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 26

4th & 10Field Goal Good+43 yds

Ethan Albertson 43 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Brett Money kickoff for 59 yds , Greg Desrosiers Jr. return for 25 yds to the UMass 31

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.68

Ellis Merriweather run for 7 yds to the UMass 38

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.72

Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 40

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.99

Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 43

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brady Olson pass complete to George Johnson III for 5 yds to the UMass 48

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the UMass 48

4th & 3Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 52 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

PAVIA, Diego pass to the right incomplete intended for POWERS, Justice thrown to the NMS49. PENALTY UMA Pass Interference on RUDOLPH, Tyler enforced 15 yards to the NMS35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +2.50

Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 38 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.74

Diego Pavia run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 29

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 12Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.36

Diego Pavia sacked by Dominic Schofield for a loss of 8 yards to the UMass 37

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 23 yds

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.48

Kay'Ron Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 13

2nd & 11Penalty-5 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the UMass 8

2nd & 16Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.37

Brady Olson pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 19 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Brady Olson run for 9 yds to the UMass 36

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Kay'Ron Adams run for 2 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Brady Olson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Brady Olson pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 6 yds to the UMass 44

3rd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.76

Brady Olson pass complete to George Johnson III for 4 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 48

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brady Olson pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45

4th & 3Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 12

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Ahmonte Watkins run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 17

2nd & 5Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.82

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 33 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the UMass 47

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.13

Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the UMass 37

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.95

Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Doro Omerhi) to the UMass 32

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the UMass 27

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +3.23

Diego Pavia pass complete to Terrell Warner for 27 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+40 yds

Ethan Albertson kickoff for 58 yds , Greg Desrosiers Jr. return for 40 yds to the UMass 47

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Brady Olson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.81

Brady Olson sacked by Lazarus Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the UMass 39

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Brady Olson pass incomplete

4th & 18Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.90

Brady Olson pass complete to George Johnson III for 18 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Brady Olson pass complete to Isaac Ross for 1 yd to the NMxSt 42

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brady Olson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 37

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (Xavier Graham) to the NMxSt 42

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Brady Olson pass incomplete

4th & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Brady Olson pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

[NH] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at NMS39 (team loss of 3).

2nd & 13Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

[NH] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at NMS38 (team loss of 1).

3rd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.26

Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at NMS36 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

New Mexico State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
44%
25 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
100%
1 play
57%
7 plays
29%
7 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Massachusetts

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
23%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play