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← Back to GamesAug 28, 2022Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Nevada by 11.8

Home Win Probability

New Mexico State 22%

Market (consensus)

New Mexico State +7

Edge: Nevada -7 (4.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Aug 28, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NevadaNevada
0170623
New Mexico StateNew Mexico State
027312

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014282-02-102-179-2012-2012-23
New Mexico StateNevada

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NMSNEVNMSNEVNMSNEVNMSNEVNMSNEVNMSNEVNMSNEVNMSNEVNMSNEVNMSNEVNMSNEVMISS949ydPUNT34ydTO1243ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT3-3ydSAF3-13ydTO440ydTD480ydTO21ydFG1041ydTO3-7ydTD518ydEND15ydPUNT613ydPUNT32ydPUNT824ydTD585ydFG1357ydFG1147ydFG1560ydTO861ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Nevada and New Mexico State
StatisticNevadaNew Mexico State
Passing14-2318-34
Pass Yards78218
Rush Yards17985
Total Yards257303
Turnovers05
3rd Down8-175-12
Penalties6-658-55
Possession31:4428:16

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Nevada
passing
Shane Illingworth
7/12, 51 YDS
rushing
Toa Taua
19 CAR, 109 YDS
receiving
Tyrese Mack
4 REC, 40 YDS
defense
New Mexico State
passing
Gavin Frakes
9/13, 143 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Diego Pavia
5 CAR, 32 YDS
receiving
Justice Powers
2 REC, 74 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29

3rd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.89

Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +3.30

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordin Parker for 35 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the Nevad 22

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the Nevad 20

3rd & 3Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.68

Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 26

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+43 yds

Ethan Albertson 43 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 30

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Tyrese Mack

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Jamaal Bell

4th & 6Punt+4 yds

Matt Freem punt for 41 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 4 yds to the NMxSt 33

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 40

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.58

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 4 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordin Parker for 8 yds to the Nevad 48

2nd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Diego Pavia pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 7 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 5 yds to the Nevad 36

3rd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.21

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordin Parker for 5 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the Nevad 29

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jordin Parker

3rd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 5 yds to the Nevad 24

4th & 3Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.20

Diego Pavia pass intercepted, touchback. Isaiah Essissima return for no gain

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

NEVADA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Nevad 10

1st & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 12

2nd & 18Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 15

3rd & 15Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.05

Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tyrese Mack for no gain to the Nevad 15

4th & 15Punt+13 yds

Matt Freem punt for 49 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 13 yds to the NMxSt 49

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 44

1st & 15Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 2 yds to the NMxSt 46

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Ahmonte Watkins

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jordin Parker

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bentlee Sanders at the Nevad 13

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tyriece Thomas) to the Nevad 18

1st & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.19

Devonte Lee run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 16

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Jamaal Bell

3rd & 7Safety0 ydsPPA -1.83

TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by Nevad Shane Illingworth for a SAFETY

4th & 23Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Matthew Killam kickoff for 69 yds , Jordin Parker return for 14 yds to the NMxSt 25

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Diego Pavia run for no gain to the NMxSt 25

2nd & 10Rush+38 ydsPPA +3.73

Diego Pavia run for 23 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the Nevad 35

2nd & 8Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.55

Diego Pavia pass intercepted Bentlee Sanders return for no gain to the Nevad 20

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Nevad 25

1st & 5Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.20

Toa Taua run for 24 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.83

Toa Taua run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Shane Illingworth pass complete to Cooper Shults for 6 yds to the NMxSt 32

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.84

Devonte Lee run for 32 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)

2nd & 4Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Matthew Killam kickoff for 64 yds , Jordin Parker return for 16 yds to the NMxSt 17

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 18

2nd & 9Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.06

Diego Pavia pass intercepted Isaiah Essissima return for no gain to the Nevad 48

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.82

Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tyrese Mack for 12 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 37

2nd & 7Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.87

Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tyrese Mack for 19 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 11

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 10

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.59

Devonte Lee run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 3

2nd & 3Rush-7 ydsPPA -0.87

Shane Illingworth run for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 10

3rd & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.56

Shane Illingworth pass complete to Jamaal Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 11

4th & 11Field Goal Good+28 yds

Brandon Talton 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jordin Parker run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26

2nd & 9Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.58

Jonathan Brady run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 22

3rd & 13Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-4 ydsPPA +0.24

Diego Pavia run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 18 Diego Pavia fumbled, forced by Dom Peterson, recovered by Nevad Dom Peterson

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 14

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 12

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tyrese Mack for 9 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Shane Illingworth run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Devonte Lee run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Toa Taua

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Nevad 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Shane Illingworth pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 6 yds to the Nevad 42

2nd & 4Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.85

Devonte Lee run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 38

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Shane Illingworth pass incomplete to Jamaal Bell

4th & 8Punt+1 yds

Matt Freem punt for 39 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 24

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 26

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Kordell David

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 46 yds , Bentlee Sanders returns for no gain to the Nevad 28

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Cross Patton run for 3 yds to the Nevad 31

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Cross Patton run for 3 yds to the Nevad 34

3rd & 4Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.45

Nate Cox run for 14 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 47

2nd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.76

Nate Cox pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 8 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -2.52

TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 47 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Nevad Nate Cox

2nd & 18Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.94

Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 48

3rd & 19Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.43

Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for no gain to the NMxSt 48

4th & 19Punt+33 yds

Matt Freem punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 10 NEVADA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 15

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 16

2nd & 9Pass Reception+67 ydsPPA +4.41

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Justice Powers for 67 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Jamoni Jones run for 6 yds to the Nevad 11

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the Nevad 10

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.72

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 10 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)

3rd & 3Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Ethan Albertson kickoff for 65 yds , Jamaal Bell return for 26 yds to the Nevad 26

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ Casteel

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 29

3rd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.85

Nate Cox run for 8 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Nate Cox run for 2 yds to the Nevad 39

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Cross Patton run for 4 yds to the Nevad 43

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.93

Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Lazarus Williams) to the NMxSt 46

1st & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.43

Nate Cox pass complete to Jacob Munro for 6 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.46

Devonte Lee run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Nate Cox pass incomplete to Jamaal Bell

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 20

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 17

4th & 3Field Goal Good+34 yds

Brandon Talton 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34

2nd & 1Penalty-10 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gabriel Preciado) to the NMxSt 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.27

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Justice Powers for 7 yds to the NMxSt 31

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.66

Gavin Frakes run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 42

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete to Dominic Gicinto

3rd & 6Penalty+10 yds

NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jamoni Jones run for 6 yds to the Nevad 42

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 47

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Star Thomas for 2 yds to the Nevad 45

3rd & 7Penalty+10 yds

NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the Nevad 30

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the Nevad 28

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete to Jonathan Brady

4th & 3Field Goal Good+46 yds

Ethan Albertson 46 Yd Field Goal

4th & 3Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Ethan Albertson kickoff for 65 yds , Jamaal Bell return for 20 yds to the Nevad 20

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Nate Cox run for 5 yds to the Nevad 25

2nd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.61

Nate Cox pass complete to Toa Taua for 5 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.99

Devonte Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 29

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Nate Cox pass incomplete to BJ Casteel

3rd & 11Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.42

Toa Taua run for 12 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 45

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Nate Cox run for 4 yds to the Nevad 49

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.31

Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.31

Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 49

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Nate Cox pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 6 yds to the NMxSt 43

3rd & 5Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.97

Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Donavan King) to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Nate Cox pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23

3rd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Nate Cox pass complete to BJ Casteel for 3 yds to the NMxSt 20

4th & 4Field Goal Good+38 yds

Brandon Talton 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 20

1st & 15Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.99

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 14 yds to the NMxSt 34

2nd & 1Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.55

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 11 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.92

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 12 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.48

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Jordin Parker for 11 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Gavin Frakes run for 8 yds to the Nevad 9

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

TEAM pass incomplete

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 14

3rd & 7Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.96

Gavin Frakes pass intercepted, touchback. Tyson Williams return for no gain

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 18

Situational Analysis

Nevada

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
25%
4 plays
36%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
56%
9 plays
25%
8 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
67%
6 plays
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th

New Mexico State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
43%
23 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
33%
12 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
100%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play