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← Back to GamesSep 2, 2022Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Minnesota by 29.9

Home Win Probability

Minnesota 96%

Market (consensus)

Minnesota -36

Edge: New Mexico State +36 (6.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 2, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
New Mexico StateNew Mexico State
00000
MinnesotaMinnesota
71714038

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284214-017-024-031-038-0
MinnesotaNew Mexico State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NMSMINMINNMSNMSMINNMSMINNMSMINNMSMINNMSMINNMSMINPUNT35ydTD774ydTD1364ydPUNT616ydPUNT32ydFG1166ydPUNT416ydTD1270ydEND10ydTD1377ydPUNT3-6ydTD959ydTO1054ydPUNT1040ydPUNT3-1ydEND615yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing New Mexico State and Minnesota
StatisticNew Mexico StateMinnesota
Passing4-1216-23
Pass Yards53188
Rush Yards38297
Total Yards91485
Turnovers10
3rd Down2-911-14
Penalties5-353-35
Possession15:3044:30

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

New Mexico State
passing
Gavin Frakes
2/7, 43 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Diego Pavia
3 CAR, 14 YDS
receiving
Justice Powers
1 REC, 34 YDS
defense
Minnesota
passing
Tanner Morgan
13/19, 174 YDS
rushing
Mohamed Ibrahim
21 CAR, 132 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Mike Brown-Stephens
3 REC, 52 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Trevor Brohard) to the NMxSt 20

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 22

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 13Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.14

Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.35

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 15 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.76

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 26 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.32

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 15

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.24

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 7 yds to the NMxSt 8

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.84

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.38

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.07

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 40

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Trey Potts run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Tanner Morgan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Trey Potts run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 32

3rd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.04

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Trey Potts run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 21

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.19

Trey Potts run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 9

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.01

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Trey Potts run for no gain to the NMxSt 3

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Mohamed Ibrahim 1 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Diego Pavia run for no gain to the NMxSt 25

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.86

Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 9 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.45

Trey Potts run for 16 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd to the Minn 43

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.87

Trey Potts run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.77

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Nick Kallerup for 16 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 29

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.53

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.19

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Trey Potts run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 8

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Tanner Morgan pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Tanner Morgan pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+26 yds

Matthew Trickett 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Ahmonte Watkins run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Ahmonte Watkins run for no gain to the NMxSt 35

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Ahmonte Watkins run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 38

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 33

3rd & 12Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Gavin Frakes run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 41

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 29 yds, downed at the Minn 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for 8 yds to the Minn 38

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Minn 47

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Tanner Morgan pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.42

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 8 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.63

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 27

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Tanner Morgan pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.32

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 20 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Tanner Morgan run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the NMxSt 25

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Ethan Albertson kickoff for 64 yds , Quentin Redding return for 22 yds to the Minn 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.65

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 19 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Minn 48

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.55

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Tanner Morgan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Trey Potts run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 46

3rd & 9Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.75

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 18 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

IBRAHIM, Mohamed rush to the left for no gain to the NMS28 (PELETI, Buddha;OJOH, Chris). PENALTY UMN Holding on ERSERY, Aireontae enforced 10 yards from the NMS28 to the NMS38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 4 yds to the NMxSt 34

2nd & 16Penalty-10 yds

POTTS, Trey rush to the right for a gain of 11 yards to the NMS23 (DUMAS, Syrus). PENALTY UMN Holding on CARROLL, Quinn enforced 10 yards from the NMS34 to the NMS44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 26Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.84

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Trey Potts for 14 yds to the NMxSt 30

3rd & 12Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.78

Tanner Morgan run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Trey Potts run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 9

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.05

Trey Potts run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Trey Potts run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

3rd & 6Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.52

Gavin Frakes sacked by Thomas Rush for a loss of 10 yards to the NMxSt 19

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the Minn 41

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Trey Potts run for 7 yds to the Minn 48

2nd & 3Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.82

Trey Potts run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.35

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Bryce Williams for 10 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Trey Potts run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 24

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 9 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.87

Bryce Williams run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Trey Potts run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Trey Potts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Gavin Frakes run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 31

1st & 15Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.06

Gavin Frakes sacked by Danny Striggow for a loss of 10 yards to the NMxSt 21

2nd & 25Penalty+15 yds

FRAKES, Gavin pass up the middle incomplete intended for GICINTO, Dominic thrown to the UMN32. PENALTY UMN Pass Interference on HOWDEN, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the NMS36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 40

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.38

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 9 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

FRAKES, Gavin pass to the right incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the UMN25. PENALTY NMS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BROWN, Jae'vone enforced 5 yards from the NMS49 to the NMS44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Penalty0 yds

MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Beanie Bishop) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the Minn 21

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

3rd & 9Interception0 ydsPPA -3.56

Gavin Frakes pass intercepted, touchback.

3rd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Cole Kramer pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 2 yds to the NMxSt 40

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 31 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 10

2nd & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.22

Gavin Frakes run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 8

3rd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.05

Gavin Frakes run for no gain to the NMxSt 8

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the Minn 44

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Jordan Nubin run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 49

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.49

Max Grand run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Max Grand run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 42

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Max Grand run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 39

Situational Analysis

New Mexico State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
18%
11 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
17%
6 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th

Minnesota

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
60%
30 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
63%
8 plays
75%
4 plays
50%
10 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
100%
4 plays
100%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th