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← Back to GamesOct 1, 2022Week 5

House Prediction

Model Margin

Fresno State by 15.6

Home Win Probability

UConn 13%

Market (consensus)

UConn +23.5

Edge: UConn +23.5 (7.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 1, 2022

Line Movement

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Fresno StateFresno State
077014
UConnUConn
336719

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-76-76-1412-1419-14
UConnFresno State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20UCOFSUCOFSUCOFSUCOUCOFSUCOFSUCOFSUCOFSUCOFSUCOFSUCOFSUCOFSUCOPUNT38ydTO532ydPUNT37ydPUNT39ydFG824ydPUNT829ydTD831ydFG976ydDOWNS628ydTO48ydTO227ydEND1-1ydTD562ydTO755ydTO314ydTD619ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT37ydPUNT37ydPUNT610ydPUNT623ydTD1194ydDOWNS4-3ydEND415yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Fresno State and UConn
StatisticFresno StateUConn
Passing16-228-16
Pass Yards157130
Rush Yards30183
Total Yards187313
Turnovers32
3rd Down0-78-17
Penalties6-758-68
Possession23:2436:36

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Fresno State
passing
Logan Fife
16/22, 157 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Jordan Mims
15 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jalen Cropper
5 REC, 76 YDS
defense
Levelle Bailey
1 TFL, 1 PD
UConn
passing
Zion Turner
8/15, 130 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Devontae Houston
23 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Kevens Clercius
2 REC, 79 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Devontae Houston run for 1 yd to the UConn 13

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Zion Turner run for 4 yds to the UConn 17

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the UConn 20

4th & 2Punt0 yds

George Caratan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Logan Fife pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 3 yds to the FrsSt 41

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Logan Fife pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44

3rd & 4Penalty+15 yds

FIFE, Logan sacked for a loss of 8 yards at the FST36 (BOUYER-RANDLE, Brandon). PENALTY UCO Face mask on WATTS, Eric enforced 15 yards from the FST44 to the UCO41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.88

Jordan Mims run for no gain to the UConn 41

2nd & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.53

Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 23 yds to the UConn 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-12 ydsPPA -4.41

run for a loss of 12 yards to the UConn 30 Logan Fife fumbled, recovered by UConn Pryce Yates

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Devontae Houston run for 6 yds to the UConn 36

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the UConn 37

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Zion Turner pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

George Caratan punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Jordan Mims run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 25

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Logan Fife run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 27

4th & 1Punt+25 yds

Carson King punt for 45 yds , Victor Rosa returns for 25 yds to the UCONN 48 FRESNO ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Raymond Pauwels) to the FrsSt 32

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.76

Aaron Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 33

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Devontae Houston run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 27

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Devontae Houston run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 23

4th & 1Penalty0 yds

FRESNO ST Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Malachi Langley) to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Devontae Houston run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 9

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Zion Turner run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 8

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Zion Turner pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+26 yds

Noe Ruelas 26 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+5 yds

Noe Ruelas kickoff for 46 yds , Malik Sherrod return for 5 yds to the FrsSt 24

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.77

Jordan Mims run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 23

2nd & 11Penalty+10 yds

FIFE, Logan pass to the left incomplete intended for MORENO-CROPPER, Jalen thrown to the FST31. PENALTY UCO Pass Interference on BELL, Malcolm enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the FST33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 39

2nd & 4Penalty+5 yds

FIFE, Logan pass to the right incomplete intended for DALENA, Mac thrown to the UCO46. PENALTY UCO Offsides on STAFFORD, Jelani enforced 5 yards from the FST39 to the FST44 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Logan Fife pass complete to Tre Watson for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.44

Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the UConn 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.57

Logan Fife pass complete to Tre Watson for 11 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.45

run for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 39

2nd & 14Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.78

Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 43

3rd & 18Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.89

Jordan Mims run for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 47

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Carson King punt for 43 yds, downed at the UConn 4

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Devontae Houston run for 1 yd to the UConn 5

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Aaron Turner run for 6 yds to the UConn 11

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.45

Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 4 yds to the UConn 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Zion Turner pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.17

Devontae Houston run for 1 yd to the UConn 16

3rd & 9Penalty+14 yds

TURNER, Zion pass to the right incomplete intended for JOLY, Justin thrown to the UCO36. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on LUX, Bralyn enforced at the spot of the foul for 14 yards to the UCO30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the UConn 33

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Zion Turner run for 2 yds to the UConn 35

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Zion Turner pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt+87 yds

George Caratan punt for 52 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 87 yds for a TD, (Abraham Montano KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Abraham Montano kickoff for 60 yds , Victor Rosa return for 19 yds to the UCONN 46 CONNECTICUT Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) to the UConn 3

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Devontae Houston run for 1 yd to the UConn 15

2nd & 9Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.96

Devontae Houston run for 22 yds to the UConn 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.53

Devontae Houston run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 34

2nd & 13Penalty+15 yds

TURNER, Zion sacked for a loss of 10 yards at the UCO24 (PAYNE, Leonard;FOX, Andres). PENALTY FST Face mask on PAYNE, Leonard enforced 15 yards from the UCO34 to the UCO49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 49

2nd & 8Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +2.05

Zion Turner pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 39 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Cale Millen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.28

Devontae Houston run for no gain to the FrsSt 10

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Zion Turner pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+28 yds

Noe Ruelas 28 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Noe Ruelas kickoff for 57 yds , Nikko Remigio return for 15 yds to the FrsSt 23

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 26

2nd & 7Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.92

Logan Fife pass complete to Tre Watson for 16 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Logan Fife pass complete to Tre Watson for 6 yds to the FrsSt 48

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.45

Logan Fife pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 3 yds to the UConn 49

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.17

Jordan Mims run for no gain to the UConn 49

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.21

Jordan Mims run for no gain to the UConn 49

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Zion Turner run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 46

2nd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 8 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Devontae Houston run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 34

2nd & 6Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.74

Zion Turner sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 43

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.65

Logan Fife pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 27 yds to the UConn 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.19

Logan Fife pass intercepted

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

FIFE, Logan pass up the middle incomplete intended for MORENO-CROPPER, Jalen thrown to the UCO26. PENALTY UCO Holding on BELL, Malcolm enforced 10 yards from the FST38 to the FST48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+37 yds

Noe Ruelas kickoff for 64 yds , Malik Sherrod return for 37 yds to the FrsSt 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.39

Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 32 yds to the UConn 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the UConn 15

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.49

run for 9 yds to the UConn 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Penalty0 yds

FIFE, Logan pass to the right incomplete intended for MORENO-CROPPER, Jalen broken up by WORTHAM, Tre at the UCO0. PENALTY UCO Offsides on MCDUFFIE, Sokoya enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the UCO6 to the UCO3 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Jalen Moreno-Cropper run for 2 yds to the UConn 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Jordan Mims 1 Yd Run (Abraham Montano Kick)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Abraham Montano kickoff for 60 yds , Victor Rosa return for 18 yds to the UConn 23

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.87

Devontae Houston run for 11 yds to the UConn 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Devontae Houston run for 7 yds to the UConn 41

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.24

Devontae Houston run for no gain to the UConn 41

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

CONNECTICUT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UConn 36

3rd & 8Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +3.01

Zion Turner pass complete to Justin Joly for 16 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

FRESNO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (David Perales) to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.31

Dajon Harrison run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 34

2nd & 15Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+12 ydsPPA -2.90

Devontae Houston run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 22 Devontae Houston fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Elijah Gates

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 8 yds to the FrsSt 30

2nd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Logan Fife pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 6 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.85

Logan Fife pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Robert Burns run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 10

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.57

Victor Rosa run for no gain to the FrsSt 10

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.13

Robert Burns run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Zion Turner pass incomplete

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Victor Rosa run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 5

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Aaron Turner 5 Yd pass from Zion Turner (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Logan Fife pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.55

Ty Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 25

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Logan Fife pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Carson King punt for 40 yds , Victor Rosa returns for no gain to the UConn 35

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Devontae Houston run for 7 yds to the UConn 42

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.26

Victor Rosa run for no gain to the UConn 42

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Zion Turner pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

George Caratan punt for 36 yds, downed at the FrsSt 22

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (Daniel Taumalolo) to the FrsSt 17

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 18

2nd & 14Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.21

Logan Fife run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 26

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Logan Fife run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 29

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Carson King punt for 52 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Devontae Houston run for 3 yds to the UConn 22

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Devontae Houston run for 1 yd to the UConn 23

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.41

Zion Turner pass complete to Justin Joly for 8 yds to the UConn 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Zion Turner run for 6 yds to the UConn 37

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.36

Devontae Houston run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 35

3rd & 6Penalty-10 yds

TURNER, Zion scrambles up the middle for a gain of 50 yards to the FST15 (BAILEY, Levelle), out of bounds. PENALTY UCO Holding on SENN, Valentin enforced 10 yards from the UCO35 to the UCO25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 16Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Devontae Houston run for 4 yds to the UConn 29

4th & 12Punt0 yds

George Caratan punt for 50 yds, downed at the FrsSt 21

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Jordan Mims run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 29

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 12 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.49

Logan Fife sacked by Jelani Stafford for a loss of 10 yards to the FrsSt 40

3rd & 17Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Logan Fife pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 4 yds to the FrsSt 44

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Carson King punt for 50 yds, downed at the UConn 6

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.43

Robert Burns run for 4 yds to the UConn 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.20

Zion Turner pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 40 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Zion Turner run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 39

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 38

3rd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.72

Zion Turner pass complete to Justin Joly for 10 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Devontae Houston run for no gain to the FrsSt 28

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Zion Turner run for no gain to the FrsSt 28

3rd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.40

Zion Turner run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Victor Rosa run for 5 yds to the UConn 11

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Victor Rosa run for 4 yds to the UConn 15

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Devontae Houston run for 17 yds for a TD, (Noe Ruelas KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+12 yds

Noe Ruelas kickoff for 44 yds , Malik Sherrod return for 12 yds to the FrsSt 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Moreno-Cropper for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Logan Fife pass incomplete

3rd & 9Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.44

Logan Fife sacked by Jackson Mitchell for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 30

4th & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.28

Logan Fife pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.70

Robert Burns run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 31

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Victor Rosa run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 27

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Robert Burns run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 22

4th & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.00

Robert Burns run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Fresno State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
50%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
75%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

UConn

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
37%
27 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
25%
12 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
67%
6 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play