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← Back to GamesOct 2, 2022Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

USC by 18.2

Home Win Probability

USC 87%

Market (consensus)

USC -24.5

Edge: Arizona State +24.5 (6.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 2, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Arizona StateArizona State
7100825
USCUSC
14771442

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-07-714-714-1021-1728-1735-1735-2542-25
USCArizona State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20USCASUSCASUSCASUSCASASUSCASUSCASUSCASUSCASUSCTD975ydTD874ydTD1075ydFG1253ydTD1094ydTD775ydPUNT834ydEND16ydPUNT64ydTO765ydPUNT36ydTD950ydTO3-6ydTD860ydTD1075ydTD539ydTO1259ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Arizona State and USC
StatisticArizona StateUSC
Passing23-3227-37
Pass Yards243348
Rush Yards88137
Total Yards331485
Turnovers11
3rd Down7-138-9
Penalties7-748-65
Possession29:5530:05

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Arizona State
passing
Emory Jones
23/32, 243 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Xazavian Valladay
13 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Bryan Thompson
5 REC, 86 YDS
defense
USC
passing
Caleb Williams
27/37, 348 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Travis Dye
13 CAR, 62 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jordan Addison
8 REC, 105 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Travis Dye run for no gain to the USC 25

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 20

2nd & 15Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.30

Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 9 yds to the USC 29

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)+6 ydsPPA +1.60

Caleb Williams run for 6 yds to the USC 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by USC Caleb Williams for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.15

Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 27 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.51

Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 21 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 7 yds to the ArzSt 10

2nd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 2 yds to the ArzSt 8

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.59

Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Caleb Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Alex Stadthaus kickoff for 61 yds , Daniyel Ngata return for 22 yds to the ArzSt 26

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Xazavian Valladay run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 35

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Daniyel Ngata run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Emory Jones pass complete to Andre Johnson for 5 yds to the ArzSt 46

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.18

Emory Jones run for no gain to the ArzSt 46

3rd & 5Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.76

Emory Jones pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 19 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Emory Jones pass incomplete to Jalin Conyers

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Emory Jones pass complete to Charles Hall IV for 6 yds to the USC 29

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +3.44

Emory Jones pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 29 yds for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Raleek Brown run for 6 yds to the USC 31

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Jordan Addison

3rd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.95

Caleb Williams run for 10 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 36

1st & 15Penalty+15 yds

Brown, Raleek rush for loss of 2 yards to the USC34, PENALTY ARIZONAST face mask (Robertson, Merlin) 15 yards to the ARIZONAST49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Caleb Williams pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.21

Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 27 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Raleek Brown run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 21

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Kyle Ford

3rd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 13 yds to the ArzSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 7

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 7 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.07

Xazavian Valladay run for 23 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Emory Jones pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 7 yds to the USC 45

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Xazavian Valladay run for 2 yds to the USC 43

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.19

Case Hatch run for no gain to the USC 43

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.10

Xazavian Valladay run for 4 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Emory Jones pass complete to Messiah Swinson for 6 yds to the USC 33

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.01

Xazavian Valladay run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 34

3rd & 5Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.27

Xazavian Valladay run for 14 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Daniyel Ngata run for 1 yd to the USC 19

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Emory Jones pass complete to Messiah Swinson for 7 yds to the USC 12

3rd & 2Penalty-10 yds

Jones, Emory rush for 8 yards to the USC4, PENALTY ARIZONAST holding 10 yards to the USC22, NO PLAY.

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Emory Jones pass incomplete to Andre Johnson

4th & 12Field Goal Good+40 yds

Carter Brown 40 yd FG GOOD

4th & 12Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Eddie Czaplicki kickoff for 63 yds , Raleek Brown return for 22 yds to the USC 43 USC Penalty, Illegal Block (18 Yards) to the USC 6

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Jordan Addison

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.75

Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 13 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.60

Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -2.52

Raleek Brown run for 3 yds to the ARIZONAST 47 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 43

1st & 17Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 7 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.11

Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 19 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Kyron Hudson

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.82

Raleek Brown run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.92

Caleb Williams run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 8 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the ArzSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Caleb Williams pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 4 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Emory Jones pass complete to Daniyel Ngata for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.24

Daniyel Ngata run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.11

Daniyel Ngata run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.09

Emory Jones run for 9 yds to the USC 41

2nd & 1Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +0.55

Emory Jones pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 34 yds to the USC 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Daniyel Ngata run for 1 yd to the USC 6

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Emory Jones run for 6 yds for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK)

2nd & 9Kickoff Return (Offense)+7 yds

Eddie Czaplicki kickoff for 62 yds , Mario Williams return for 7 yds to the USC 42 USC Penalty, Illegal Block (5 Yards) to the USC 5

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the USC 9

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Caleb Williams run for 5 yds to the USC 14

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.40

Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-9 yds

Williams, Caleb pass complete to Epps, Malcolm for 82 yards to the ARIZONAST0, PENALTY USC holding 9 yards to the USC9, NO PLAY.

1st & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Travis Dye

2nd & 19Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.99

Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 25 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Mario Williams

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 5 yds to the USC 39

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Brenden Rice

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by D.J. Taylor at the ArzSt 24

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Xazavian Valladay run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 30

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Alex Stadthaus kickoff for 60 yds , Daniyel Ngata return for 26 yds to the ArzSt 31

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Xazavian Valladay run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 30

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Emory Jones pass incomplete to Andre Johnson

3rd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.40

Emory Jones pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 11 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Xazavian Valladay run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 43

2nd & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.76

Emory Jones sacked by Eric Gentry and Shane Lee for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 35

3rd & 16Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.17

Emory Jones pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for no gain to the ArzSt 35

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Eddie Czaplicki punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 26

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the USC 29

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.26

Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 8 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.29

Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 14 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 44

2nd & 5Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.04

Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 24 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.19

Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 11 yds to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.58

Caleb Williams pass intercepted, touchback. Timarcus Davis return for no gain

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Emory Jones pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 6 yds to the ArzSt 26

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.71

Xazavian Valladay run for no gain to the ArzSt 26

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Emory Jones pass incomplete to Bryan Thompson

4th & 4Punt+5 yds

Eddie Czaplicki punt for 39 yds , Jordan Addison returns for 5 yds to the USC 31 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.75

Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 12 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Caleb Williams run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 34

2nd & 6Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.55

Caleb Williams sacked by Khoury Bethley for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 42

3rd & 14Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.96

Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 14 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 26

2nd & 8Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.52

Caleb Williams run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 7

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 2

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.46

Travis Dye run for 2 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)

3rd & 1Kickoff Return (Offense)+31 yds

Alex Stadthaus kickoff for 64 yds , Daniyel Ngata return for 31 yds to the ArzSt 32

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Xazavian Valladay run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 34

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Xazavian Valladay run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 36

3rd & 6Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.80

Emory Jones sacked by Tyrone Taleni for a loss of 10 yards to the ArzSt 26

4th & 16Punt+2 yds

Eddie Czaplicki punt for 36 yds , Jordan Addison returns for 2 yds to the USC 40 Jordan Addison fumbled, recovered by USC Jordan Addison

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Raleek Brown run for 3 yds to the USC 43

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Kyron Hudson

3rd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.06

Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 18 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 4 yds to the ArzSt 35

2nd & 6Penalty+15 yds

Williams, Caleb pass incomplete to Addison, Jordan, PENALTY ARIZONAST pass interference 15 yards to the ARIZONAST20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 17

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.31

Travis Dye run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 7 yds to the ArzSt 2

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 2 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Emory Jones pass incomplete to Charles Hall IV

2nd & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Emory Jones sacked by Solomon Tuliaupupu for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 23

3rd & 12Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.36

Emory Jones pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 16 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Emory Jones pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 6 yds to the ArzSt 45

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.61

Emory Jones pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.75

Emory Jones run for 12 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.05

Emory Jones sacked by Tyrone Taleni and Nick Figueroa for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 44

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Emory Jones pass incomplete to Jalin Conyers

3rd & 16Penalty+15 yds

Jones, Emory pass incomplete to Hall IV, Charles, PENALTY USC pass interference 15 yards to the USC29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONAST.

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.26

Emory Jones pass complete to Charles Hall IV for 17 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Jones, Emory pass incomplete to Swinson, Messiah, PENALTY USC pass interference 10 yards to the USC2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONAST.

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Xazavian Valladay run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emory Jones pass to Xazavian Valladay for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Brown, Carter kickoff 10 yards to the ARIZONAST45, on-side kick, recovered by ARIZONAST on ARIZONAST45, PENALTY ARIZONAST illegal touching 5 yards to the ARIZONAST30, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 4 yds to the ArzSt 35

2nd & 6Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.62

Travis Dye run for 16 yds to the ArzSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 14

2nd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.59

Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 13 yds to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Travis Dye run for 1 yd for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

ARIZONA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Emory Jones pass incomplete to Bryan Thompson

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.02

Emory Jones pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 11 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.64

Emory Jones pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 19 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Emory Jones pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 6 yds to the USC 38

2nd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.33

Emory Jones pass complete to Cam Johnson for 9 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Emory Jones pass incomplete to Xazavian Valladay

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.44

Emory Jones pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 8 yds to the USC 21

3rd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Emory Jones pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 6 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Emory Jones pass complete to Daniyel Ngata for 6 yds to the USC 9

2nd & 4Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.96

Emory Jones sacked by Tuli Tuipulotu for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 16

3rd & 11Pass Interception Return+56 ydsPPA -3.66

Emory Jones pass intercepted Calen Bullock return for 56 yds to the ArzSt 37

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.14

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 39

Situational Analysis

Arizona State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
58%
26 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
50%
8 plays
43%
7 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
100%
1 play
40%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play

USC

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
100%
1 play
39%
31 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
71%
7 plays
82%
11 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
100%
1 play
4th