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← Back to GamesNov 20, 2022Week 12

House Prediction

Model Margin

Missouri by 17.1

Home Win Probability

Missouri 86%

Market (consensus)

Missouri -29

Edge: New Mexico State +29 (11.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 20, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
New Mexico StateNew Mexico State
007714
MissouriMissouri
714141045

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-021-028-028-735-745-745-14
MissouriNew Mexico State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NMSMISNMSMISNMSMISNMSMISMISNMSMISNMSNMSMISNMSMISNMSMISNMSDOWNS839ydTD1164ydPUNT617ydTD1781ydPUNT710ydTD766ydPUNT935ydDOWNS644ydTD969ydTD1075ydTD770ydTD614ydTO20ydFG617ydPUNT38ydTO310ydTD544ydPUNT32ydEND515yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing New Mexico State and Missouri
StatisticNew Mexico StateMissouri
Passing8-2120-31
Pass Yards115261
Rush Yards144182
Total Yards259443
Turnovers21
3rd Down8-169-14
Penalties4-376-39
Possession30:3429:26

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

New Mexico State
passing
Diego Pavia
6/17, 76 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Diego Pavia
9 CAR, 50 YDS
receiving
J.J. Jones III
2 REC, 38 YDS
defense
Missouri
passing
Brady Cook
19/27, 251 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Brady Cook
7 CAR, 71 YDS
receiving
Barrett Banister
7 REC, 91 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 15 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 7 yds to the NMxSt 48

3rd & 2Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.68

Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 8 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the Misso 40

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the Misso 36

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.30

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Luther Burden III run for 7 yds to the Misso 43

2nd & 3Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.14

Brady Cook run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Brady Cook pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Brady Cook run for no gain to the NMxSt 42

3rd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 37 Cody Schrader fumbled, recovered by Misso Cody Schrader

4th & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.52

Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 13 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Brady Cook run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 17

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 22

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Nathaniel Peat run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 19

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Brady Cook pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 7 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Brady Cook pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.83

Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 12 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Sean Koetting kickoff for 64 yds , Jonathan Brady return for 20 yds to the NMxSt 21

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 25

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.91

Diego Pavia run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Jonathan Brady run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the Misso 19

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Brady Cook pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Luther Burden III run for 3 yds to the Misso 22

3rd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.30

Brady Cook pass complete to Nathaniel Peat for 7 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.15

Nathaniel Peat run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 26

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Brady Cook pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.10

Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for 21 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Brady Cook pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Cody Schrader run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 47

3rd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.92

Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for 11 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.58

Cody Schrader run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 28

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.23

Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 21

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.27

Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 7 yds to the NMxSt 14

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.09

Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Cody Schrader run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 6

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.14

Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Cody Schrader run for 2 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.27

Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 34

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Jamoni Jones run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 30

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 31

4th & 11Punt+2 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 34 yds , Luther Burden III returns for 2 yds to the Misso 34

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.55

Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the Misso 36

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the Misso 38

3rd & 6Rush+18 ydsPPA +3.02

Brady Cook run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.93

Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for 9 yds to the NMxSt 35

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.95

Cody Schrader run for no gain to the NMxSt 35

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.56

Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.87

Brady Cook pass complete to Ryan Hoerstkamp for 32 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Tim Gans run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 23

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.31

Tim Gans run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 21

3rd & 14Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.09

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 25 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 48

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the Misso 46

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.32

Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the Misso 8

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.58

Brady Cook run for 14 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.09

Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 24 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for 6 yds to the NMxSt 48

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.22

Brady Cook pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Brady Cook pass incomplete

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Brady Cook pass incomplete

0th & 4End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Brett Money kickoff for 47 yds , Nathaniel Peat return for 13 yds to the Misso 31

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the Misso 34

2nd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 1 yd to the Misso 35

3rd & 6Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +3.05

Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 19 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 41

2nd & 5Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.77

Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 17 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 21

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.29

Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 9 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Cody Schrader run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 5

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.23

Cody Schrader run for 5 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jamoni Jones run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Kordell David) to the NMxSt 26

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 28

3rd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.08

Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.17

Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 13 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.31

Diego Pavia sacked by DJ Coleman for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 49

2nd & 11Penalty+5 yds

QB Keeper PAVIA, Diego rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the MIZ44 (MANUEL, Martez). PENALTY MIZ Offsides on JEFFCOAT, Trajan enforced 5 yards from the MIZ49 to the MIZ44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the Misso 42

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Gavin Frakes run for 2 yds to the Misso 40

4th & 2Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.49

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Eric Marsh for 21 yds to the Misso 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Jamoni Jones run for 9 yds to the Misso 10

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +1.98

Star Thomas run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Dominic Lovett) to the Misso 25

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Brett Money kickoff for 35 yds , Nathaniel Peat return for no gain to the Misso 30

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the Misso 27

2nd & 13Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.33

Brady Cook run for 15 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.84

Brady Cook pass complete to Tavorus Jones for 32 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Luther Burden III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 24

2nd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.55

Brady Cook pass complete to Ryan Hoerstkamp for no gain to the NMxSt 24

3rd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.98

Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 10 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.55

Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 14 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Star Thomas run for no gain to the NMxSt 25

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.77

Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 8 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jamoni Jones run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 41

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.52

Star Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 39

3rd & 6Interception Return Touchdown+40 ydsPPA -7.63

Daylan Carnell 40 Yd Interception Return (Harrison Mevis Kick)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the NMxSt 25

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.22

Gavin Frakes pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Tavorus Jones run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.15

Sam Horn run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

HORN, Sam pass to the left complete for 29 yards to BANISTER, Barrett caught at the NMS13 and advanced to the NMS2 (SCULARK, BJ;BROHARD, Trevor). PENALTY MIZ Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WALTERS, Mitchell enforced 5 yards from the NMS31 to the NMS36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Sam Horn pass incomplete

2nd & 15Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Tavorus Jones run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 25

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Sam Horn pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+43 yds

Harrison Mevis 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Bryce Childress run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Gavin Frakes run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 34

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 33 yds, downed at the Misso 34

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.14

Tavorus Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 33

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.09

Jack Abraham pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 10 yds to the Misso 43

3rd & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -1.61

Tavorus Jones run for 1 yd to the Misso 44 Tavorus Jones fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Mike Edwards

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the Misso 43

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Gavin Frakes pass incomplete

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Misso 48

3rd & 14Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.40

Gavin Frakes pass complete to Trevor Stephens for 18 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Gavin Frakes run for 3 yds to the Misso 27

2nd & 7Penalty0 yds

FRAKES, Gavin pass to the right incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the MIZ1. PENALTY MIZ Pass Interference on NORWOOD, Dreyden enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards to the MIZ14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Gavin Frakes run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

BJ Harris run for 5 yds to the Misso 43

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

BJ Harris run for 2 yds to the Misso 45

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 40

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Jack Abraham pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jack Stonehouse punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 23

2nd & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Star Thomas run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 37

2nd & 8Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.30

Gavin Frakes sacked by Dreyden Norwood for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 30

3rd & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32

Situational Analysis

New Mexico State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
42%
24 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
14%
7 plays
22%
9 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

Missouri

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
54%
26 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
45%
11 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
67%
6 plays
75%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays