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← Back to GamesSep 24, 2022Week 4

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 17.4

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 84%

Market (consensus)

Mississippi State -31

Edge: Bowling Green +31 (13.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 24, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Bowling GreenBowling Green
070714
Mississippi StateMississippi State
17147745

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-017-017-724-731-738-738-1445-14
Mississippi StateBowling Green

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSBGMSBGMSBGMSBGMSBGMSBGMSBGMSBGMSBGMSBGMSBGMSBGTD572ydPUNT35ydTD356ydPUNT39ydFG1237ydPUNT35ydPUNT512ydTD997ydTD554ydPUNT33ydTD555ydTO727ydEND10ydPUNT3-3ydTD565ydPUNT620ydPUNT524ydTD1072ydTD872ydPUNT35ydPUNT820ydPUNT520ydPUNT38ydEND15yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Bowling Green and Mississippi State
StatisticBowling GreenMississippi State
Passing17-2842-54
Pass Yards172420
Rush Yards7845
Total Yards250465
Turnovers10
3rd Down3-124-11
Penalties5-403-30
Possession32:4827:12

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Bowling Green
passing
Camden Orth
17/28, 172 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jaylen Jennings
6 CAR, 28 YDS
receiving
Harold Fannin
5 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Will Rogers
39/50, 409 YDS, 6 TD
rushing
Dillon Johnson
4 CAR, 57 YDS
receiving
Caleb Ducking
7 REC, 96 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.93

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 21 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds to the BwGrn 45

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.54

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

(14:48) ROGERS, Will pass to the left complete for 4 yards to GRIFFIN, Lideatrick caught at the BGS40 and advanced to the BGS36 (SIPP JR., Joseph), clock 14:24. PENALTY BGS Face mask on SIPP JR., Joseph enforced 15 yards from the BGS37 to the BGS22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.65

Caleb Ducking 22 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Ben Raybon Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Camden Orth pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Ta'ron Keith run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30

3rd & 5Penalty0 yds

BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Illegal Block (Ta'ron Keith) declined

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 26 yds

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 48

2nd & 2Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.54

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 16 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.87

Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 32 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.39

Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 7 yds to the BwGrn 18

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 20

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Jaison Patterson run for no gain to the BwGrn 20

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MisSt 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the MisSt 35

2nd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 2 yds to the MisSt 37

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.13

Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.14

Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 13 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.96

Will Rogers run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 49 Will Rogers fumbled, recovered by MisSt Will Rogers

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 10 yds to the BwGrn 41

4th & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.67

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 12 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.12

Will Rogers sacked by JB Brown and Demetrius Hardamon for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 38

2nd & 19Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the BwGrn 37

3rd & 18Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the BwGrn 35

4th & 16Field Goal Good+53 yds

Ben Raybon 53 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Camden Orth pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Camden Orth pass complete to CJ Lewis for 5 yds to the BwGrn 23

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Camden Orth pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt+2 yds

Sami Sir punt for 36 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 2 yds to the MisSt 43

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 4 yds to the MisSt 47

2nd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.22

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 9 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 10Penalty-10 yds

ROGERS, Will pass to the right complete for 9 yards to DUCKING, Caleb caught at the BGS45 and advanced to the BGS35 (BURTON, Jalen). PENALTY MSU Holding on WILLIAMS, Austin enforced 10 yards from the BGS44 to the MSU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 20Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.45

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 9 yds to the BwGrn 45

4th & 11Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 42 yds, downed at the BwGrn 3

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Nick Mosley run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 5

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.47

Nick Mosley run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Nick Mosley run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 20

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.69

PaSean Wimberly run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 18

3rd & 6Penalty+10 yds

ORTH, Camden pass to the right intercepted by DUNCAN, Collin at the BGS35 intended for LEWIS, CJ. Duncan return for 13 yards to the BGS22 (KEITH, Ta'ron), clock 12:01. PENALTY MSU Holding on FORBES, Emmanuel enforced 10 yards from the BGS18 to the BGS28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jalen Green) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Jaison Patterson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 40

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.10

Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 10 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Harold Fannin Jr.) to the MisSt 35

1st & 15Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.68

PaSean Wimberly run for 10 yds to the MisSt 25

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.74

Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 25 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+42 yds

Mason Lawler kickoff for 61 yds , Lideatrick Griffin return for 42 yds to the MisSt 46

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 48

2nd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.84

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 13 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 6 yds to the BwGrn 29

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 3 yds to the BwGrn 26

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +2.96

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 26 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Camden Orth run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 24 Camden Orth fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Camden Orth

2nd & 11Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Camden Orth pass complete to Jaison Patterson for 4 yds to the BwGrn 28

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Camden Orth pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 27 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.14

Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 16 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.27

Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 15 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.47

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 22 yds to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Jaison Patterson run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 34

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Ta'ron Keith run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 6 yds to the BwGrn 41

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.75

Camden Orth pass complete to CJ Lewis for 6 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 5 yds to the MisSt 48

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.18

Camden Orth pass incomplete

3rd & 5Interception0 ydsPPA -1.83

Camden Orth pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Will Rogers pass incomplete

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 2 yds to the BwGrn 30

3rd & 5Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.60

Camden Orth sacked by Collin Duncan for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 22

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MisSt 35

1st & 10Rush+40 ydsPPA +2.54

Dillon Johnson run for 40 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offsides (Karl Brooks) to the BwGrn 20

2nd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 2 yds to the BwGrn 18

3rd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.46

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the BwGrn 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 9 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Nick Mosley run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.81

Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 19 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -2.00

PaSean Wimberly run for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 45

2nd & 14Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Camden Orth run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 9Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.18

Camden Orth sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 45

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MisSt 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 8 yds to the MisSt 21

2nd & 2Fumble Recovery (Own)+14 ydsPPA +0.81

Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 14 yds Rara Thomas fumbled, recovered by MisSt Rara Thomas for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Simeon Price run for 2 yds to the MisSt 37

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Will Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt+8 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 43 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for 8 yds to the BwGrn 28

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Camden Orth pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.99

Camden Orth pass complete to Griffin Little for 13 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

KEITH, Ta'ron rush to the left for a loss of 1 yard to the BGS40 (JOHNSON, Jett;FURDGE, Esaias). PENALTY MSU Illegal Block in the Back on FURDGE, Esaias enforced 10 yards from the BGS45 to the MSU45 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Jaison Patterson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Camden Orth pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.70

Camden Orth run for 7 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Nick Mosley run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Camden Orth pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.66

Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 23 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Jaison Patterson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 5

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+28 yds

Mason Lawler kickoff for 65 yds , Lideatrick Griffin return for 28 yds to the MisSt 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 9 yds to the MisSt 37

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 3 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.14

Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 13 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.74

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 15 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.88

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 13 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.28

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the BwGrn 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Camden Orth pass complete to Cavon Croom for 7 yds to the BwGrn 32

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Kameren Stewart) to the BwGrn 27

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Jaylen Jennings run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Camden Orth pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt+5 yds

Sami Sir punt for 42 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 5 yds to the MisSt 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Will Rogers pass complete to Scoobie Ford for 12 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Simeon Price run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Will Rogers pass complete to Scoobie Ford for 6 yds to the BwGrn 47

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Will Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.51

J.J. Jernighan run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.60

Sawyer Robertson sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 49

2nd & 18Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 2 yds to the BwGrn 47

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete

4th & 16Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 47 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jaylen Jennings run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 24

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Jaylen Jennings run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Jaylen Jennings run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 40

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.31

Jaylen Jennings run for no gain to the BwGrn 40

3rd & 2Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.82

Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for no gain to the BwGrn 40

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Sami Sir punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Scoobie Ford for 2 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.57

Simeon Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 27

3rd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.18

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Simeon Price for 7 yds to the MisSt 34

4th & 2Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 47 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for no gain to the BwGrn 19

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jaylen Jennings run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 24

Situational Analysis

Bowling Green

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
21 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
57%
7 plays
56%
9 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
4th

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
59%
32 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play