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← Back to GamesDec 28, 2021Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 7.2

Home Win Probability

Louisville 31%

Market (consensus)

Louisville +1

Edge: Air Force -1 (6.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 28, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
7210331
LouisvilleLouisville
0147728

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-77-147-2114-2821-3128-31
LouisvilleAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LOUAFLOUAFLOUAFLOUAFLOUAFLOUAFLOUAFLOUAFLOUAFPUNT513ydPUNT35ydMISS841ydTD1074ydPUNT35ydTD373ydTD1165ydTD675ydTD00ydTD1175ydEND861ydPUNT636ydDOWNS1478ydPUNT38ydTD551ydFG1766ydTD670ydEND720yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Louisville
StatisticAir ForceLouisville
Passing9-1013-22
Pass Yards252207
Rush Yards170192
Total Yards422399
Turnovers00
3rd Down8-147-13
Penalties3-353-30
Possession35:2624:34

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Haaziq Daniels
9/10, 252 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Brad Roberts
20 CAR, 77 YDS
receiving
Brandon Lewis
5 REC, 172 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Louisville
passing
Malik Cunningham
13/21, 207 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Trevion Cooley
18 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Tyler Harrell
4 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Brice Honaker kickoff for 63 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 26 yds to the Lvile 28

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Trevion Cooley run for 7 yds to the Lvile 35

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.45

Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Trevion Cooley run for 7 yds to the Lvile 47

3rd & 3Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.64

Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 41 Malik Cunningham fumbled, recovered by Lvile

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mark Vassett punt for 59 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 22

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 25

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.28

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 25

4th & 5Punt+4 yds

Carson Bay punt for 46 yds , Josh Johnson returns for 4 yds to the Lvile 33

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.95

Trevion Cooley run for 22 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.12

Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard line Trevion Cooley fumbled, recovered by Lvile

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete

3rd & 15Rush+34 ydsPPA +3.86

Malik Cunningham run for 34 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Maurice Burkley run for no gain to the AFA 16

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce

3rd & 10Penalty-10 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 26

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete

4th & 20Field Goal Missed+44 yds

James Turner 44 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.07

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 40 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.41

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Lvile 20

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the Lvile 17

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Dane Kinamon run for 9 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the Lvile 7

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Brandon Lewis run for 2 yds to the Lvile 5

3rd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

3rd & 7Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Brice Honaker kickoff for 64 yds for a 1ST down , Jawhar Jordan return for 18 yds to the LOUISVILLE 47 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Lvile 36

3rd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 3 yds to the Lvile 39

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Mark Vassett punt for 34 yds, downed at the AFA 27

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.95

DeAndre Hughes run for 8 yds to the AFA 35

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.13

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+61 ydsPPA +4.86

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 61 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Trevion Cooley run for 11 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.19

Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Malik Cunningham sacked by Jordan Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 45

2nd & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.18

Jawhar Jordan run for 10 yds to the AFA 35

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Jawhar Jordan run for 8 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.16

Jawhar Jordan run for 10 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the AFA 10

2nd & 3Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.69

Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 13

3rd & 6Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.02

Trevion Cooley run for 12 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Brandon Lewis run for 2 yds to the AFA 38

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 33

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the AFA 36

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+64 ydsPPA +6.82

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 64 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

3rd & 10Kickoff Return Touchdown+100 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 65 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 100 yds for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line

1st & 57Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, Kickoff Out of Bounds (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 45

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Dane Kinamon run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 20 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.32

Brandon Lewis run for 14 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.83

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 13 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Lvile 34

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.84

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Lvile 34

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

4th & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.33

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 9 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Lvile 20

2nd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.31

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 12 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

DeAndre Hughes run for 7 yds to the Lvile 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Haaziq Daniels 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)

2nd & 3Kickoff Return (Offense)+4 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 56 yds , Maurice Burkley return for 4 yds to the Lvile 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.33

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 31 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Josh Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Downing for 9 yds to the AFA 47

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.19

Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the AFA 47

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.20

Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

TEAM pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler Harrell

3rd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.73

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 18 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.09

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 27 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.71

DeAndre Hughes run for 13 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the Lvile 32

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.97

Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 33

3rd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.16

Haaziq Daniels sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 39

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 39 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the Lvile 24

2nd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.14

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 10 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Trevion Cooley run for 13 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Trevion Cooley run for 5 yds to the AFA 48

2nd & 5Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.22

Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 47

3rd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +3.02

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 13 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.56

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 19 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 9 yds to the AFA 12

2nd & 1Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.97

Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 16 Malik Cunningham fumbled, recovered by Lvile

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.46

Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.40

Malik Cunningham sacked by TD Blackmon for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 12

2nd & 12Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Trevion Cooley run for 6 yds to the AFA 6

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the AFA 2

4th & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -4.15

Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the AFA 2

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 4

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 9

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.15

DeAndre Hughes run for 1 yd to the AFA 10 DeAndre Hughes fumbled, recovered by AFA

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 41 yds, downed at the Lvile 49

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 48

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler Harrell

4th & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +3.41

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 14 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +2.94

Tyler Harrell 34 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (Brock Travelstead Kick)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 26

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.09

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 11 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 42

2nd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.57

Haaziq Daniels sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 36

3rd & 14Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.24

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 15 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the Lvile 47

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.33

Haaziq Daniels run for 10 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the Lvile 33

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the Lvile 29

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.51

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Haaziq Daniels run for 8 yds to the Lvile 17

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the Lvile 14

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Dane Kinamon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 13

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the Lvile 9

4th & 4Field Goal Good+26 yds

Matthew Dapore 26 Yd Field Goal

4th & 4Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 46 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 11 yds to the Lvile 30

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Trevion Cooley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 6 yds to the Lvile 38

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 33

3rd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.92

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 6Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.34

Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 24 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.65

Malik Cunningham 22 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Ryan Chalifoux on-side kick recovered by AIR FORCE at the Lvile 47 , Dane Kinamon return for no gain to the Lvile 47

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Lvile 44

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.03

Brad Roberts run for 10 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.74

Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the Lvile 25

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.52

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 24

2nd & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.94

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 26

3rd & 13Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 27

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
39%
28 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
46%
13 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
48%
25 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play