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← Back to GamesOct 16, 2021Week 7
TroyTroy
31
-Final
28
Texas StateTexas State
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Troy by 4.5

Home Win Probability

Texas State 38%

Market (consensus)

Texas State +7.5

Edge: Texas State +7.5 (3.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 16, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
TroyTroy
1077731
Texas StateTexas State
7714028

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-30-107-1014-1714-2428-2428-31
Texas StateTroy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTROTSTROTSTSTROTSTROTSTSTROPUNT55ydFG854ydDOWNS1033ydTD266ydPUNT32ydPUNT3-4ydTD539ydTD775ydTD275ydPUNT1036ydPUNT1245ydEND218ydDOWNS1346ydTO47ydTD436ydTD770ydTD754ydPUNT616ydTO619ydPUNT36ydTD519ydTO522ydEND1268yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Troy and Texas State
StatisticTroyTexas State
Passing22-2922-32
Pass Yards182279
Rush Yards21091
Total Yards392370
Turnovers04
3rd Down7-148-16
Penalties5-454-45
Possession31:0928:51

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Troy
passing
Gunnar Watson
22/29, 182 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Kimani Vidal
26 CAR, 162 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Tez Johnson
9 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Texas State
passing
Brady McBride
22/32, 279 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Brock Sturges
11 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Javen Banks
4 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Brady McBride run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28

2nd & 7Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.87

Brady McBride sacked by TJ Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 22

3rd & 13Penalty+15 yds

McBride,Brady sacked for loss of 7 yards to the TXS15 (Griffin,Elgin) PENALTY TRY Personal Foul (Jibunor,Richard) 15 yards from TXS22 to TXS37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -2.17

Brady McBride sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 12 yards to the TexSt 25

2nd & 22Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.05

Brady McBride run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28

3rd & 19Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.05

Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 2 yds to the TexSt 30

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds to the Troy 34

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Gunnar Watson pass complete to AJ Lewis for 7 yds to the TexSt 40

2nd & 3Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.46

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 21 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TexSt 17

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez Johnson

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to TJ Harris

4th & 8Field Goal Good+34 yds

Brooks Buce 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Brooks Buce kickoff for 58 yds , Donnovan Moorer return for 26 yds to the TexSt 33

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Brock Sturges run for 7 yds to the TexSt 40

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.55

Brock Sturges run for 6 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the TexSt 49

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Brady McBride pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 3 yds to the Troy 48

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the Troy 47

4th & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +2.52

Brady McBride pass complete to Brock Sturges for 4 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen Banks

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.98

Brady McBride pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 9 yds to the Troy 34

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -2.63

Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the Troy 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the Troy 40

2nd & 4Penalty+15 yds

PENALTY TXS Personal Foul (Childress,Zion) 15 yards from TRY40 to TXS45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+45 ydsPPA +3.48

Kimani Vidal run for 45 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Brooks Buce kickoff for 63 yds , Donnovan Moorer return for 25 yds to the TexSt 27

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.77

Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 27

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 1 yd to the TexSt 28

3rd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.18

Brady McBride run for 1 yd to the TexSt 29

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 31

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 33

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 3 yds to the Troy 30

3rd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 3 yds to the Troy 27

4th & 14Blocked Punt+12 yds

Luke Magliozzi punt blocked by Caleb Twyford blocked by Caleb Twyford

4th & 14Blocked Punt+12 yds

Luke Magliozzi punt blocked by Caleb Twyford blocked by Caleb Twyford

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jackson Lanam

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.01

Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for no gain to the Troy 39

3rd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.33

Brady McBride pass complete to Rontavious Groves for 18 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.44

Brock Sturges run for 14 yds to the Troy 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Penalty+5 yds

McBride,Brady pass incomplete to Barbee,Marcell PENALTY TRY Pass Interference (Palmer,Taiyon) 5 yards from TRY07 to TRY02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Brock Sturges run for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.22

B.J. Smith run for 14 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 44

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.94

B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 45

3rd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.33

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 12 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 7 yds to the TexSt 36

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.04

B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.90

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 33 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+1 yds

Brooks Buce kickoff for 41 yds , Jake Lynch return for 1 yd to the TexSt 25

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 25

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.78

Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 75 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Gunnar Watson pass complete to AJ Lewis for 5 yds to the Troy 42

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 46

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.26

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie Todd

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.08

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 9 yds to the TexSt 41

3rd & 1Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.94

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 7 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tez Johnson

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TexSt 34

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Gunnar Watson run for 5 yds to the TexSt 34

4th & 10Penalty0 yds

TROY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kimani Vidal) declined

4th & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY TRY Delay Of Game (Watson,Gunnar) 5 yards from TXS34 to TXS39. NO PLAY.

4th & 15Penalty0 yds

TROY Penalty, Delay Of Game (Kimani Vidal) declined

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Luke Magliozzi punt for 37 yds

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Luke Magliozzi punt for 32 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the TexSt 14

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.01

Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the TexSt 11

3rd & 6Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.42

Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 18 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jahmyl Jeter run for 5 yds to the TexSt 34

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Brady McBride run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.15

Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Brady McBride pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 7 yds to the TexSt 48

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.03

Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the TexSt 49

3rd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +1.31

Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 3 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.53

Brady McBride sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 45

2nd & 17Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY TXS Illegal Snap (Fletcher,Charles) 5 yards from TXS45 to TXS40. NO PLAY.

2nd & 22Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TexSt 47

3rd & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the Troy 48

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 6

2nd & 6Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.62

Kimani Vidal run for 14 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST down

0th & 6End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the Troy 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.81

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 9 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 8 yds to the Troy 49

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the TexSt 41

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TexSt 40

4th & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.00

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TexSt 36

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 7 yds to the TexSt 29

3rd & 1Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.86

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for no gain to the TexSt 29

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.06

Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TexSt 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Brady McBride pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 6 yds to the TexSt 35

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.85

Brock Sturges run for 7 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40

2nd & 12Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

run for 4 yds to the TexSt 36

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TexSt 34

2nd & 8Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.87

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 23 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.58

Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Kimani Vidal 1 Yd Run (Brooks Buce Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+9 yds

Brooks Buce kickoff for 44 yds , Jake Lynch return for 9 yds to the TexSt 30

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 30

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Donnovan Moorer

3rd & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.60

Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 26 yds to the TEXSTATE 44 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Elijah Culp) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.73

Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 20 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.36

Brady McBride run for 16 yds to the Troy 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the Troy 2

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Ashtyn Hawkins 2 Yd pass from Brady McBride (Seth Keller Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brady McBride pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the TexSt 49

3rd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.71

Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 15 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the Troy 38

2nd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.78

Brady McBride pass complete to Rontavious Groves for 9 yds to the Troy 29

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 8 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 21 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Gunnar Watson pass complete to AJ Lewis for 4 yds to the Troy 39

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 43

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY TRY False Start (Lewis,AJ) 5 yards from TRY43 to TRY38. NO PLAY.

3rd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 10 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 49

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to B.J. Smith

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon Stoudemire

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Luke Magliozzi punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Rontavious Groves at the TexSt 12

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brock Sturges run for 5 yds to the TexSt 17

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Brock Sturges run for 4 yds to the TexSt 21

3rd & 1Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.57

Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 15 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Brady McBride pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.97

Brady McBride sacked by TJ Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 31

3rd & 15Interception0 ydsPPA +0.15

Brady McBride pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Luke Whittemore

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 46

3rd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 3 yds to the Troy 49

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Luke Magliozzi punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 7 yds to the TexSt 15

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.05

Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 23

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 27

3rd & 2Interception Return Touchdown+33 ydsPPA -7.40

Keyshawn Swanson 33 Yd Interception Return (Brooks Buce Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+27 yds

Brooks Buce kickoff for 58 yds , Donnovan Moorer return for 27 yds to the TexSt 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 10 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

3rd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Brady McBride run for 5 yds to the Troy 49

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.

4th & 3Penalty+5 yds

McBride,Brady pass incomplete to Graham, Jr.,Trevis PENALTY TRY Offside (Choloh,Will) 5 yards from TRY49 to TRY44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Interception+15 ydsPPA -3.59

Brady McBride pass intercepted TROY Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Will Choloh) to the Troy 21

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 25

2nd & 6Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.42

Kimani Vidal run for 23 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 48

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.86

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 39

2nd & 7Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.44

Gunnar Watson sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 41

3rd & 9Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.44

B.J. Smith run for 13 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jordan Revels) to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 14

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 11

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.85

Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.79

run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 8

2nd & 8Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.48

run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 11

Situational Analysis

Troy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
43%
28 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
42%
12 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
100%
1 play
50%
6 plays
0%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
45%
29 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
10%
10 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
83%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
33%
3 plays