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← Back to GamesNov 11, 2021Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Toledo by 12.4

Home Win Probability

Bowling Green 19%

Market (consensus)

Bowling Green +10.5

Edge: Toledo -10.5 (1.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 11, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
ToledoToledo
14217749
Bowling GreenBowling Green
730717

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842560-70-147-1410-1410-2110-4210-4917-49
Bowling GreenToledo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BGTOLBGTOLBGTOLBGTOLBGTOLBGTOLBGTOLBGTOLBGTOLBGTOLBGTOLBGTOLBGTOLPUNT38ydTD575ydPUNT3-5ydTD562ydPUNT37ydDOWNS49ydTD339ydPUNT512ydFG925ydPUNT831ydPUNT513ydTD354ydPUNT3-9ydTD159ydPUNT3-2ydTD465ydEND32ydTD1175ydPUNT32ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT30ydTD1172ydTD1175ydPUNT636ydTO1470ydEND10yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Toledo and Bowling Green
StatisticToledoBowling Green
Passing18-2512-25
Pass Yards27067
Rush Yards269129
Total Yards539196
Turnovers01
3rd Down5-117-17
Penalties8-996-63
Possession28:2531:35

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Toledo
passing
Dequan Finn
18/24, 270 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Bryant Koback
19 CAR, 121 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Danzel McKinley-Lewis
3 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Bowling Green
passing
Matt McDonald
11/20, 65 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Nick Mosley
10 CAR, 53 YDS
receiving
Austin Osborne
6 REC, 50 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jamal Johnson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 5 yds to the BwGrn 29

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Matt McDonald run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Matt Naranjo punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 25

3rd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Finn,Dequan pass incomplete to McKinley-Lewis,Danzel broken up by Anderson,Jordan QB hurried by Horne,Brock PENALTY BGS Roughing The Passer (Hardamon,Demetrius) 15 yards from TOL25 to TOL40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 37

2nd & 13Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.57

Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+50 ydsPPA +3.84

Bryant Koback run for 50 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Matt McDonald sacked by Tycen Anderson for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 20

2nd & 15Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.15

Matt McDonald pass complete to Jaison Patterson for no gain to the BwGrn 20

3rd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.07

Matt McDonald run for no gain to the BwGrn 20

4th & 15Punt+4 yds

Matt Naranjo punt for 46 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 4 yds to the Toled 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 7 yds to the Toled 45

2nd & 3Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +1.67

Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 39 yds to the BwGrn 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 15

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 10

3rd & 4Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.78

Bryant Koback run for 10 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Matt McDonald pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 3 yds to the BwGrn 31

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Matt McDonald pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 4 yds to the BwGrn 35

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Christian Sims

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Matt Naranjo punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 30

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 35

2nd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 2 yds to the Toled 37

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 39

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 39

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.38

Terion Stewart run for 11 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+14 yds

Stewart,Terion rush for 2 yards loss to the TOL30 (Johnson,Dyontae) PENALTY TOL Personal Foul 14 yards from TOL28 to TOL14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Terion Stewart run for 6 yds to the Toled 8

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Terion Stewart run for 6 yds to the Toled 8

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.37

Terion Stewart run for 8 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.13

Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 7 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 7 yds to the Toled 42

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY TOL False Start 5 yards from TOL42 to TOL37. NO PLAY.

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin Maddox

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal Turner

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal Turner

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 45

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Stewart,Terion rush for 2 yards gain to the BGS47 (Hines,Jamal; Jones,Jonathan) PENALTY BGS Holding 10 yards from BGS45 to BGS35. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Matt McDonald run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 42

2nd & 13Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Matt McDonald run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 47

3rd & 8Penalty+15 yds

McDonald,Matt pass incomplete to Broden,Tyrone PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Clark,Justin) 15 yards from BGS47 to TOL38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the Toled 35

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin Osborne

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin Osborne

3rd & 7Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.60

Terion Stewart run for 15 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the Toled 19

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone Broden

3rd & 9Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.83

Matt McDonald sacked by Jonathan Jones for a loss of 11 yards to the Toled 30

4th & 20Field Goal Good+47 yds

Nate Needham 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 30

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.13

Bryant Koback run for 9 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Toled 46

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.76

Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 48

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.07

Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 49

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Bryant Koback

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BwGrn 5

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 9 yds to the BwGrn 14

2nd & 1Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.13

Jaison Patterson run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin Osborne

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Matt McDonald run for no gain to the BwGrn 25

3rd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.25

Matt McDonald sacked by Jamal Hines for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 18

3rd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.25

Matt McDonald sacked by Jamal Hines for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 18

4th & 17Punt+5 yds

Matt Naranjo punt for 41 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 5 yds to the Toled 46

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.21

Micah Kelly run for 19 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +0.43

Micah Kelly run for 22 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Dequan Finn run for 13 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY BGS False Start (Gazarek,Levi) 5 yards from BGS12 to BGS07. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.10

Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 9

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone Broden

3rd & 13Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.02

Terion Stewart run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 3

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Matt Naranjo punt for 48 yds , Devin Maddox returns for no gain to the Toled 41

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+59 ydsPPA +4.66

Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 59 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Christian Sims

2nd & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.45

Matt McDonald sacked by Dyontae Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 12

3rd & 19Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.02

Terion Stewart run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 19

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Matt Naranjo punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 35

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 7 yds to the Toled 42

2nd & 3Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +1.99

Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 44 yds to the BwGrn 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 6

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.10

Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 6 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin Osborne

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Terion Stewart run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 39

3rd & 14Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Terion Stewart run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 45

0th & 14End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.22

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 17 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Toled 49

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.29

Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 49

3rd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.92

Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 10 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 5 yds to the BwGrn 36

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

Finn,Dequan pass incomplete to Winstead,Isaiah QB hurried by Hardamon,Demetrius PENALTY BGS Pass Interference (Taylor,Devin) 15 yards from BGS36 to BGS21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 13

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.12

Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Micah Kelly run for no gain to the BwGrn 6

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 4

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 4 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 23

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Matt McDonald pass complete to Taron Keith for 6 yds to the BwGrn 29

3rd & 5Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.47

Matt McDonald sacked by Jamal Hines for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 26

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Matt Naranjo punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 45

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.94

run for 8 yds to the Toled 37

2nd & 18Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.57

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 9 yds to the Toled 46

3rd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 2 yds to the Toled 44

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 45 yds for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 2 yds to the BwGrn 33

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 31

3rd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.23

Terion Stewart run for no gain to the BwGrn 31

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Matt Naranjo punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.67

Micah Kelly run for 18 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.89

Micah Kelly run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 43

2nd & 11Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.63

Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 14 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Alex Enders

2nd & 10Penalty-15 yds

TOLEDO Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the BwGrn 40

3rd & 21Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.65

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 22 yds to the BwGrn 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 16

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jacquez Stuart

3rd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 9

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.94

Dequan Finn run for 9 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone Broden

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Nick Mosley run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.78

Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 8 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Jamal Johnson

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.76

Nick Mosley run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 46

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.27

Nick Mosley run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.87

Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 13 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.42

Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 13 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.26

Jaison Patterson run for 23 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the Toled 2

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Matt McDonald pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the Toled 36

2nd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.45

Jacquez Stuart run for 10 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.17

Jacquez Stuart run for 18 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 32

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY TOL False Start 5 yards from BGS32 to BGS37. NO PLAY.

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Alex Enders

3rd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

Carter Bradley run for no gain to the BwGrn 37

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Nick Mosley run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 19

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Tucker Melton pass incomplete to Griffin Little

3rd & 11Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.58

Nick Mosley run for 22 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Nick Mosley run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 44

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Tucker Melton pass complete to Griffin Little for 2 yds to the BwGrn 46

3rd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.97

Nick Mosley run for 5 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Nick Mosley run for 6 yds to the Toled 43

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Tucker Melton pass incomplete to Zach Russell

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.49

Nick Mosley run for 6 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Tucker Melton pass incomplete to Jhaylin Embry

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Jamal Johnson run for 6 yds to the Toled 31

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Jamal Johnson run for 9 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Melton,Tucker pass incomplete to Little,Griffin PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Lacey,Michael) 15 yards from TOL22 to TOL07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Nick Mosley run for 3 yds to the Toled 10

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.20

Tucker Melton pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.24

Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the Toled 1

Situational Analysis

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
65%
31 plays
2nd
71%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
20%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

Bowling Green

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
33%
24 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
23%
13 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
67%
6 plays
20%
5 plays
80%
5 plays
4th