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← Back to GamesOct 23, 2021Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Western Michigan by 2.2

Home Win Probability

Toledo 40%

Market (consensus)

Toledo +1.5

Edge: Western Michigan -1.5 (0.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 23, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Western MichiganWestern Michigan
0150015
ToledoToledo
31021034

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428423-06-06-313-913-1527-1534-15
ToledoWestern Michigan

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TOLWMTOLWMTOLWMTOLWMTOLWMTOLWMTOLTOLWMTOLWMWMTOLWMTOLWMTOLWMPUNT727ydPUNT38ydFG45ydPUNT636ydPUNT715ydDOWNS45ydFG1042ydFG1166ydTD375ydTD1183ydPUNT33ydTD356ydPUNT41ydMISS39ydPUNT822ydTD980ydTD310ydDOWNS521ydTD846ydDOWNS838ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT623ydPUNT944ydEND225yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Western Michigan and Toledo
StatisticWestern MichiganToledo
Passing15-298-24
Pass Yards232138
Rush Yards166192
Total Yards398330
Turnovers20
3rd Down6-155-14
Penalties9-758-75
Possession31:4528:15

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Western Michigan
passing
Kaleb Eleby
15/29, 232 YDS
rushing
Sean Tyler
10 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Skyy Moore
8 REC, 128 YDS
defense
Ryan Selig
1.5 TFL
Toledo
passing
Dequan Finn
8/24, 138 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Bryant Koback
17 CAR, 100 YDS
receiving
Danzel McKinley-Lewis
1 REC, 34 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.98

Bryant Koback run for 11 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 42 yds, downed at the WMich 4

3rd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.12

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 15 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the WMich 46

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the WMich 12

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.24

Sean Tyler run for no gain to the WMich 12

4th & 2Punt+32 yds

Nick Mihalic punt for 41 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 32 yds to the WMich 16

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.65

Bryant Koback run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 20

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

3rd & 14Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.52

Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the WMich 11

4th & 5Field Goal Good+29 yds

Thomas Cluckey 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Wesley French) to the WMich 20

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.21

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for no gain to the WMich 22

3rd & 13Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +4.00

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 37 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.88

Kaleb Eleby run for no gain to the Toled 41

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Toled 39

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Nick Mihalic punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 15

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the Toled 22

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.24

Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.75

Jacquez Stuart run for 11 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the Toled 38

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Vitaliy Gurman) to the Toled 33

2nd & 15Sack0 ydsPPA -0.35

Dequan Finn sacked by Marshawn Kneeland and Ralph Holley for 0 yards to the Toled 30

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 33 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jaxson Kincaide run for 6 yds to the Toled 42

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.31

Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 43

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.24

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.21

Bryant Koback run for 13 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Bryant Koback run for no gain to the WMich 44

2nd & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -1.07

Dequan Finn sacked by Ali Fayad for 0 yards to the Toled 47

3rd & 19Rush+19 ydsPPA +3.90

Dequan Finn run for 19 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.37

Bryant Koback run for 18 yds to the WMich 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 6 yds to the WMich 10

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39

Micah Kelly run for no gain to the WMich 10

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

FINN, Dequan pass to the left complete for 10 yards to WINSTEAD, Isaiah caught at the WMU0 and advanced to the WMU0, TOUCHDOWN TOL, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY Before the snap, TOL Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the WMU10 to the WMU15. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+33 yds

Thomas Cluckey 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Sean Tyler run for 4 yds to the WMich 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.72

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 26 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the Toled 37

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Toled 34

3rd & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.29

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 27 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Sean Tyler run for 6 yds to the Toled 1

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Ali Fayad) to the Toled 6

2nd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 2 yds to the Toled 4

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Jacob Gideon) to the Toled 9

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+26 yds

Nick Mihalic 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.98

Micah Kelly run for 22 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Braden Fiske) to the WMich 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 28 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.02

La'Darius Jefferson run for 9 yds to the WMich 26

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.08

La'Darius Jefferson run for 7 yds to the WMich 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.82

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 20 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.77

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 8 yds to the Toled 39

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.10

Jaxson Kincaide run for 5 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds to the Toled 27

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Toled 26

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.42

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 4 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 8 yds to the Toled 14

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.71

Kaleb Eleby run for 14 yds for a TD (Nick Mihalic PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Toled 17

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 19

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 44

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.02

Sean Tyler run for 13 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +1.66

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 39 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Sean Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Mihalic PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.10

Bryant Koback run for 13 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the Toled 38

3rd & 9Sack0 ydsPPA -0.40

Dequan Finn sacked by Zaire Barnes for 0 yards to the Toled 25

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.87

Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 9 yds to the WMich 32

3rd & 1Field Goal Missed+50 yds

Thomas Cluckey 50 yd FG MISSED

0th & 1End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

3rd & 10Penalty+15 yds

ELEBY, Kaleb pass to the left incomplete intended for TORRES, Anthony thrown to the WMU40. PENALTY TOL Pass Interference on MITCHELL, Quinyon enforced 15 yards to the WMU27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.77

Sean Tyler run for no gain to the WMich 27

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.43

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 14 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

ELEBY, Kaleb scrambles to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the WMU44 (JOHNSON, Desjuan). PENALTY WMU Holding on FRENCH, Wesley enforced 10 yards from the WMU41 to the WMU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Kaleb Eleby run for 5 yds to the WMich 36

2nd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the WMich 39

3rd & 12Penalty-10 yds

QB Keeper ELEBY, Kaleb rush to the right for a gain of 13 yards to the TOL48 (WOMACK, Samuel;HOOK, Maxen). PENALTY WMU Holding on JEFFERSON, La'Darius enforced 10 yards from the WMU39 to the WMU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 22Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Kaleb Eleby run for 5 yds to the WMich 34

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Nick Mihalic punt for 46 yds , Devin Maddox returns for no gain to the Toled 20

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 20

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.60

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 11 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 15 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.37

Bryant Koback run for 24 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.19

Dequan Finn run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 34

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Dequan Finn pass incomplete TOLEDO Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on ROSI, Drew ( Yards) declined

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

4th & 14Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +5.94

Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 34 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jaxson Kincaide run for 6 yds to the WMich 31

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the WMich 33

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +6.30

Sean Tyler run for 2 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 12 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kaleb Eleby run for 4 yds to the WMich 41

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Kaleb Eleby run for 5 yds to the WMich 46

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.82

La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the WMich 46

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the WMich 43

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the WMich 29

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.11

Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.80

Bryant Koback run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 25

2nd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the WMich 23

3rd & 12Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.34

Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 20 yds to the WMich 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Micah Kelly run for 3 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 2 yds to the WMich 27

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the WMich 30

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.59

Kaleb Eleby run for 6 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

TOLEDO Penalty, Roughing the Passer on JOHNSON, Desjuan enforced (Dyontae Johnson) to the Toled 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Toled 31

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

4th & 8Sack0 ydsPPA -2.02

Kaleb Eleby sacked by Judge Culpepper for 0 yards to the Toled 37

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 39

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Vinny Sciury) to the Toled 34

2nd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 35

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 23

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Jaxson Kincaide run for no gain to the WMich 23

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.10

Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 17 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.07

Jaxson Kincaide run for 12 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Toled 44

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete

3rd & 6Sack0 ydsPPA -1.03

Kaleb Eleby sacked by Desjuan Johnson for 0 yards to the WMich 46

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Nick Mihalic punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 14

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 17

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Vitaliy Gurman) to the Toled 12

3rd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.93

Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay Of Game (Zaire Barnes) to the Toled 26

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.75

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 28

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.45

Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the Toled 39

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

STUART, Jacquez rush up the middle for a loss of 4 yards to the TOL35 (CARTER, Andre). PENALTY WMU Face mask on CARTER, Andre enforced 15 yards from the TOL39 to the WMU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the WMich 45

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the WMich 43

3rd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.35

Micah Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 45

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 9

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.49

Lucas Hartings run for 12 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.99

Lucas Hartings run for 13 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Western Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
62%
26 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
17%
6 plays
17%
6 plays
14%
7 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
39%
28 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
33%
12 plays
0%
5 plays
3rd
38%
8 plays
50%
6 plays
4th
100%
1 play