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← Back to GamesOct 9, 2021Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Toledo by 16

Home Win Probability

Toledo 80%

Market (consensus)

Toledo -13

Edge: Toledo -13 (3.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 9, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois
3130622
ToledoToledo
0140620

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-30-67-614-1614-1920-22
ToledoNorthern Illinois

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NITOLNITOLNITOLNITOLNITOLNITOLTOLNITOLNITOLNITOLNITOLNITOLFG1150ydDOWNS48ydFG939ydPUNT36ydTO315ydPUNT613ydFG1372ydTD471ydFG640ydTD275ydTD675ydEND28ydDOWNS632ydPUNT30ydFG626ydPUNT315ydPUNT720ydPUNT1220ydDOWNS533ydFG1035ydTD675ydFG960ydEND39yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Northern Illinois and Toledo
StatisticNorthern IllinoisToledo
Passing14-2416-31
Pass Yards154229
Rush Yards242135
Total Yards396364
Turnovers10
3rd Down7-191-10
Penalties8-8010-100
Possession40:4719:13

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Northern Illinois
passing
Rocky Lombardi
14/24, 154 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Antario Brown
24 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Tyrice Richie
8 REC, 98 YDS
defense
CJ Brown
0.5 TFL
Toledo
passing
Dequan Finn
10/17, 179 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Bryant Koback
12 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Bryant Koback
2 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Antario Brown run for 12 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Clint Ratkovich run for 3 yds to the NoIll 40

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah Travis

3rd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.92

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 15 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the Toled 46

2nd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.76

Antario Brown run for 8 yds to the Toled 38

3rd & 3Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.37

Rocky Lombardi run for 22 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the Toled 15

2nd & 9Penalty-10 yds

Brown,Antario rush for 0 yards to the TOL15 (Barrow,Jackson; Jones,Jonathan) PENALTY NIU Holding (Cox,Marques) 10 yards from TOL15 to TOL25. NO PLAY.

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah Travis

3rd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon Rudolph

4th & 19Field Goal Good+43 yds

John Richardson 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY TOL Delay Of Game (Bradley,Carter) 5 yards from TOL37 to TOL32. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 1 yd to the Toled 31

2nd & 16Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 33

3rd & 14Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.73

Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 12 yds to the Toled 45

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.51

Rocky Lombardi sacked by Jamal Hines for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 48

2nd & 17Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.04

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 14 yds to the Toled 38

3rd & 3Penalty+5 yds

Lombardi,Rocky pass complete to McCray,Fabian for 3 yards to the TOL35 (Anderson,Tycen) PENALTY TOL Illegal Substitution 5 yards from TOL38 to TOL33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.30

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Mohamed Toure for 14 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 8 yds to the Toled 11

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the Toled 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd to the Toled 1

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NIU False Start (Cox,Marques) 5 yards from TOL01 to TOL06. NO PLAY.

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tristen Tewes

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+23 yds

John Richardson 23 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 3 yds to the Toled 26

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead

4th & 4Punt+23 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 42 yds , Tyrice Richie returns for 23 yds to the Toled 45

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Jay Ducker run for 8 yds to the Toled 37

2nd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA -0.07

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 7 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.19

Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the Toled 43

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.09

Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 44

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 48

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan Newton

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 52 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 24

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 25

3rd & 5Rush+28 ydsPPA +3.29

Rocky Lombardi run for 28 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the Toled 42

2nd & 5Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.82

Jay Ducker run for 17 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd to the Toled 24

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 2 yds to the Toled 26

3rd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.75

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Messiah Travis for 10 yds to the Toled 16

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.62

Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the Toled 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the Toled 12

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the Toled 11

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds to the Toled 8

4th & 4Field Goal Good+26 yds

John Richardson 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 6 yds to the Toled 31 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryce Mitchell) to the Toled 25

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.60

Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 21 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Finn,Dequan pass incomplete to Mitchell,Bryce PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Gandy,Jordan) 15 yards from TOL45 to NIU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +3.19

Bryant Koback run for 40 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NoIll 38

2nd & 7Rush+32 ydsPPA +2.83

Rocky Lombardi run for 17 yds to the TOLEDO 45 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (Nate Bauer) to the Toled 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the Toled 26

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the Toled 25

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah Travis

4th & 5Field Goal Good+43 yds

John Richardson 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin Maddox

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.78

Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 75 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 26

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.73

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 18 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the Toled 46

2nd & 1Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA -0.01

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 9 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +3.05

Antario Brown run for 37 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Toled 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 33

0th & 6End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 1 yd to the Toled 31

2nd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.13

Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 14 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Finn,Dequan pass incomplete to Winstead,Isaiah PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Gandy,Jordan) 15 yards from TOL45 to NIU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the NoIll 37

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the NoIll 38

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Drew Rosi

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.35

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.35

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Tyrice Richie run for no gain to the NoIll 38

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Antario Brown run for no gain to the NoIll 38

3rd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.37

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for no gain to the NoIll 38

4th & 10Punt+30 yds

Matt Ference punt for 48 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 30 yds to the Toled 44

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.13

Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 15 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.43

Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 11 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin Maddox

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Drew Rosi

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+48 yds

Thomas Cluckey 48 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NoIll 33

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NoIll 35

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice Richie

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Matt Ference punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 21

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Micah Kelly run for 6 yds to the Toled 27

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.43

Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.84

Micah Kelly run for 10 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

Bradley,Carter pass complete to Koback,Bryant for 8 yards to the TOL49 (Deveaux,Lance) PENALTY TOL Holding (Harris,Bryce) 10 yards from TOL41 to TOL31. NO PLAY.

2nd & 20Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.47

Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 10 yds to the Toled 41

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin Maddox

4th & 10Punt+6 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 52 yds , Tyrice Richie returns for 6 yds to the NoIll 13

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 14

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 7 yds to the NoIll 21

3rd & 2Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.46

Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Sideline Inteference (Fabian McCray) to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Antario Brown run for no gain to the NoIll 18

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.30

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 12 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NoIll 33

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NoIll 36

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NoIll 38

4th & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.96

Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NoIll 38

2nd & 12Penalty-5 yds

Lombardi,Rocky pass complete to Travis,Messiah for 6 yards to the NIU44 (Clark,Justin; Hook,Maxen) PENALTY NIU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Richie,Tyrice) 5 yards from NIU38 to NIU33. NO PLAY.

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah Travis

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah Travis

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Matt Ference punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 31

1st & 10Rush+31 ydsPPA +2.51

Bryant Koback run for 31 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the NoIll 37

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the NoIll 34

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal Turner

4th & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -1.97

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 2 yds to the NoIll 36

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 8 yds to the NoIll 44

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.09

Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 43

3rd & 3Penalty+15 yds

TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Toled 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Lombardi,Rocky pass incomplete to Travis,Messiah PENALTY NIU Holding (Zschernitz,Logan) 10 yards from TOL40 to TOL50. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd to the Toled 49

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice Richie

3rd & 19Rush+20 ydsPPA +3.86

Rocky Lombardi run for 20 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the Toled 28

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the Toled 31

3rd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the Toled 29

4th & 10Field Goal Good+47 yds

John Richardson 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the Toled 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+46 ydsPPA +3.30

Dequan Finn pass complete to Drew Rosi for 46 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the NoIll 22

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.50

Bryant Koback run for no gain to the NoIll 22

3rd & 8Penalty-10 yds

Finn,Dequan pass complete to Newton,Jerjuan for 22 yards to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 04:19 PENALTY TOL Holding (Gurman,Vitaliy) 10 yards from NIU22 to NIU32. NO PLAY.

3rd & 18Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the NoIll 26

4th & 12Penalty+15 yds

Finn,Dequan pass incomplete to Newton,Jerjuan, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Byrd,JaVaughn) 15 yards from NIU26 to NIU11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 30

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.80

Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 44

2nd & 6Penalty+15 yds

Lombardi,Rocky pass incomplete to Travis,Messiah PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Womack,Samuel) 15 yards from NIU44 to TOL41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +1.04

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 34 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the Toled 9

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd to the Toled 8

3rd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds to the Toled 11

4th & 11Field Goal Good+29 yds

John Richardson 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY TOL False Start (Gurman,Vitaliy) 5 yards from TOL25 to TOL20. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 10 yds to the Toled 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin Maddox

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 4 yds to the Toled 34

Situational Analysis

Northern Illinois

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
30%
30 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
23%
13 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
40%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
21 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
50%
4 plays
33%
9 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
0%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays